Despite all the interesting speculation about the short, medium, and long-term effects of last night's nuclear compromise, I think the one thing we can count on is that its impact will, in certain ways, surprise us.
One possibly bad effect is in the area of Social Security "reform." Here's newly-minted-moderate Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) on Hardball last night (via JMM):
MATTHEWS: Social Security, do you think the president`s plans for some kind of personal accounts has a better shot now?
GRAHAM: It has a shot versus no shot. And watch this group of 14 to come out with some deal for Social Security.
MATTHEWS: Really?
GRAHAM: Just keep watching.
This doesn't bode well. One of the great, if partial, triumphs of the last three months has been the Democrats' unity on Social Security, in the face of tireless (though admittedly inept) campaigning by the President, and a MSM that is alternately fanning the flames of a manufactured crisis and asking where the Democrats "plan" is.
All of this will be for naught if party "moderates" begin to negotiate a "solution" with GOP "moderates." We've always known that this is the sort of thing that Holy Joe just loves to do. But he now appears to have some (potential) company. I'm not too worried about Byrd or Inouye. But Landrieu, Nelson (NE), and Salazar (at the very least, I'm not sure about Pryor) could join with Joementum and do considerable damage.
Unfortunately, last night's deal might convince these "moderate" Democratic and Republican Senators that they can bring "bipartisanship" to a Social Security "reform" effort that is currently dying a much deserved death.
One of the central tasks over the next few weeks for Democrats and others interested in preserving Social Security will be to keep up the effort to resist phony reform, and to reject the siren song of an empty bipartisanship that will only open the door to the destruction of one of the most important pieces of our already flimsy social safety net. Coming up with ways to hold potential "moderate" Dem dissenters' feet to the fire will be part of this task.