[
Crossposted at The Next Hurrah]
As far as the most important factor for Democrats' electoral chances, the most important story developing this weekend probably isn't taking place in Washington. It doesn't involve the Bush administration, Congress, terrorism or Supreme Court nominee John Roberts. It's unfolding in Chicago, and it's about the future of the American Federation of Labor-Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO). And it's on page 18 of today's New York Times:
With several of the nation's largest unions threatening to quit the A.F.L.-C.I.O., Democratic leaders say they fear that the possible schism might hurt their party's chances by making labor a less potent political force.
Democratic leaders said a split could hurt their candidates because it could keep unions from coordinating their political efforts as well as they did before and could mean that unions devote less energy to politics and more to fighting among themselves.
Just about any casual campaign and election observer is aware that organized labor is a crucial member of the Democrats' broad coalition, both institutionally and in terms of the individual members of labor unions who tend to support Democrats over Republicans. But what's great about this article--by Steven Greenhouse, an excellent journalist and the only reporter at a major US paper I can think of whose beat is organized labor--is that one is given a sense of just how important union members are to Democrats being competitive in general elections:
The A.F.L.-C.I.O., with 13 million union members, has long provided the Democrats with their most effective get-out-the-vote operation. In the 2004 election, households with union members accounted for 24 percent of all votes, and among voters from those households, Mr. Kerry had a 5.8 million majority.
In last year's campaign, unions mailed out more than 30 million pieces of literature and ran 257 phone banks with 2,322 lines in 16 states. Although unions splintered in the primaries behind Mr. Kerry, Mr. Dean and John Edwards, they ultimately rallied behind Mr. Kerry and worked hard for him. Union members voted two-to-one for Mr. Kerry in the general election.
Think about that: without voters from union households, Kerry would have been slaughtered. Other than maybe gay environmentalists with a PhD who live in Brookline MA or Manhattan, about the only segment of white males who consistently vote Democratic are union members.
Greenhouse also hits on what has most worried me about the possible breakup of the AFL-CIO--the effect on state and local elections, especially the specter of more contested primaries with labor split and feuding with itself:
Some union leaders said the schism could hurt Democrats most at the local level by undercutting the effectiveness of state A.F.L.-C.I.O.'s and central labor councils in dozens of cities.
In some cities and states, the unions threatening to bolt represent nearly 40 percent of the union members. In California, New York and Oregon, for example, the Service Employees is the most politically potent union, and quitting the federation could throw local political efforts into turmoil.
"I think a split can have an effect down below when you get involved with governors and members of state legislative bodies," said Gerald McEntee, chairman of the A.F.L.-C.I.O.'s political committee and president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. "There can be more individual union agendas at that level."
About the only people in America who can elect their bosses are public employees, and on the local level AFSCME, the American Federation of Teachers, the International Association of Firefighters and other AFL-CIO unions that represent public employees often work closely together, and more often leverage the support of unions without an immediate interest in local governance and contracts to elect labor-friendly candidates to local and county offices. That cooperation and coordination will surely be threatened if the AFL-CIO fractures. And the coordination on the state level that's so vital to strong and successful election efforts will also be imperiled.
I'll write more this week about the actual issues involved in the dispute at the AFL-CIO convention, and what eventually happens. (As of this afternoon there are rumors that one of the unions threatening to leave the federation, UNITE-HERE, has paid their back dues and is staying. But there are other rumors that UNITE-HERE will boycott the actual convention. With all the machinations going on to try to prevent the fracture of the AFL-CIO, either story could be true. In the meantime, for background you may wish to check out Trapper John's primer on the AFL-CIO and the disputes as of this past March, and my interview with SEIU president Andy Stern, the most prominent figure threatening to take his union out of the federation.
And for the sake of Democratic chances in elections, lets all hope for a solution to the problems in the House of Labor.