I think know why we're consistently losing the votes of the moderate middle class. We're unintentionally insulting them.
Before we get to that, though, I want to put it in context.
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The average American is employed, owns a house, has cable TV, and enough to eat. That's the good news. The bad news is that purchasing power is flat or decreasing, and costs for food, energy and medical care are rising. This means that the average American is walking a tight rope - life is generally good, but a single mishap - car accident, sick child, tree branch through the roof, etc., can send a family spiraling toward bankruptcy.
So we as Americans deal with two very contradictory possibilities:
Possibility #1. I am living (or will soon be living) the American Dream.
Possibility #2. I could end up bankrupt, sick and homeless.
I don't think anyone believes that focusing on Possiblity #2 is a healthy way to live. Stress and depression can result, and make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. And yet, I submit that Possibility #2 is the underlying message of the Democratic Platform.
Consider the following passages from the 2004 convention speeches by Bush and Kerry.
Bush: "This changed world can be a time of great opportunity for all Americans to earn a better living, support your family, and have a rewarding career. And government must take your side."
Kerry: "And here at home, wages are falling, health care costs are rising, and our great middle class is shrinking. People are working weekends; they're working two jobs, three jobs, and they're still not getting ahead."
When Republicans do refer to the problems of average Americans, they typically refer to government as the problem. Consider the fact that taxes are by far the largest expense for most of us. And when Bush pushed his tax cuts by saying, "It's your money," the average American can certainly imagine what they would do with that extra few hundred dollars if they got to keep it.
The subtext: You are nearly living the American Dream, and if the government would get out of the way, you would be much better off.
By contrast, the meat of Kerry's economic message was the "Help is on the way" section of the speech.
The subtext: Here is long list of losers. You cannot live your life successfully, and so we have to come bail you out.
I find myself agreeing with Kerry on substance, but emotionally, I want Bush to be right.
So what is the solution? How do we stand up for the underclass, how do we create a safety net, without alienating or insulting middle America?
Here is the solution:
Stop speaking to "the loser." Speak to "the winner."
In other words, speak to every American as if they are already close to living the American dream, and suggest we work together to provide a safety net for the unfortunate. Appeal to the better nature of all Americans. Ask us to provide for those of us too young, old, unlucky, etc., to be able to live the dream on our own.
That is the winning economic/social agenda for 2006 and beyond.