Last week I put together a list of 75 GOP House seats which I believe are realistic pickup possibilities in '06. If I knew how to put in links, I'd link to it, as there was a good discussion.
While that list was our offensive opportunities, the following are where we must play defense. Remember, the better things look as a whole, the fewer of these races will truly be in play; the worse they are, the more (with even some spillover into the B list in a really bad year):
The A list (Reps. likely to see a strong challenge with some risk of losing): [NOTE: These are the incumbents most in need of support. A review of this list, however, will also reveal that many of these folks are not the most popular based on ideology. Everyone needs to make their own purist/pragmatist call in deciding who to support.]
Colorado 03: John Salazar is a freshman Congressman narrowly won a rural district carried handily by Bush that was vacated by a GOPer in 2004.
Florida 02: Allen Boyd is a conservative Dem in a conservative Northern Florida seat. The GOP has shown more and more interest in taking him out each cycle.
Florida 11: This a gerrymandered district containing all of the Dem areas in the Tampa-St. Pete area. Rep. Jim Davis is leaving it to run for Gov., though, so it makes this list as an open seat. It should be a fairly easy retention as long as we don't nominate an absolutely horrible candidate (which we do from time to time, which is why this district is on the list).
Georgia 03: Jim Marshall was a two-time House loser before the Georgia Dems redrew the district lines for the 2002 elections, cobbling together a Macon-based district Marshall won narrowly. The GOP re-redrew the lines for 2004, but Marshall survived. They will be back for another try in 2006.
Georgia 12: John Barrow ousted freshman GOPer Max Burns from a lean Dem district made less so in the re-redistricting in 2004. Barrow is an excellent fit for the district, but Burns is back for a rematch.
Iowa 03: Leonard Boswell holds an extremely swingy district and has won narrowly 5 times now. Expect another tight race in another district in what is probably the most exciting state for House elections. [Insert plug for non-partisan line-drawing here].
Illinois 08: The most popular Dem House member among the faithful here! Melissa Bean is a freshman who won a district that has been safely Republican since the civil war (I think) an that Bush won by 15-points both times because the voters in 2004 felt that the long-time GOPer rep. was a useless sack who did nothing for and lost touch with the district and because she ran as a conservative, pro-business Dem. The GOP will be back swinging in '06.
Kansas 03: Dennis Moore has had a target on his back since he ousted divisive GOP Rep. Vince Snowbarger in 1996. The GOP tried to kill him off in 2002 by drawing the college city of Lawrence out of his district. He survived and did so again in 2004 despite a double digit Bush win in the district. He will again be a top target.
Kentucky 06: Ben Chandler was elected in a 2003 special election after the seat's previous occupant, GOPer Ernie Fletcher, defeated Chandler in the governor's race. This is a Lexington-based district that went for Bush by double digits both times, although it had been held easily by Dem Scotty Baesler for several terms before he left to run for Senate in 1998. Chandler will likely be targeted.
Louisiana 03: Charlie Melancon narrowly won an open seat in rural Louisiana in 2004. It had previously been held by Dem-turned-GOPer W. J. "Billy" Tauzin. This is a district that Bush won by about 10 points.
Maryland 03: This Baltimore seat barely made this list, but it is an open seat (longtime rep. Ben Cardin hopefully will be joining the Senate), and thus unpredictable. Gore and Kerry both won here by double digits, so a fairly good candidate should be all that's required to hold the seat.
Maine 02: Mike Michaud is a two-term representative from the essentially dead-even northern Maine seat (the state Dem advantage is wholly a function of the Portland-based southern Maine seat). Michaud has had two close races since he succeeded now-Gov. John Baldacci in 2002. Baldacci, FWIW, was (I believe) the only Dem to win a GOP seat in 1994 when he picked up Olympia Snowe's seat she left for the Senate.
Michigan 01: Bart Stupak is a veteran Dem from Michigan's upper peninsula who has had really tough challenges on and off. He's been fairly safe the last couple of times despite the 2002 GOP remap which made his district lean-Republican. If the GOP gets a strong candidate, this race will be competitive.
North Dakota at Large: Earl Pomeroy likewise is a veteran Den representing a "district" that has given Bush 20-point margins. In that sense, it is an even more GOP seat than Ohio 02. That said, his togh challenges have been on and off. A statewide officeholder could give him a tough race.
Ohio 06: It seems counterintuitive that we have to play defense in Ohio in 2006, but this is Ted Strickland's swing district in rural southeastern Ohio. Strickland is running for Gov., so this will be an open seat. It will be very hard fought.
Oregon 05: Darlene Hooley reresnts a swing district in North Central (I think) Oregon which she took from a GOPer in 1996 and has had hard fights for ever since. The last few challenges have been fairly weak, however. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this race drop off the charts--but I also wouldn't be surprised to see it in the top tier of tight races.
Pennsylvania 17: Tim Holden was redistricted out of a job in 2002--or so the GOP thought. He decided to tell them to go Cheney themselves and took on an entrenched GOPer fellow longtimer in a conservative Harrisburg-based district which gave Bush an 18-point victory in 2000. He won, and defended his seat against a high-profile challenge last time. This will be a GOP target again.
South Dakota at Large: Stephanie Herseth represents a state which has given Bush two 20-point victories. She narrowly won a special in 2003 and a general in 2004 against a fairly weak GOP opponent based on state political pedigree and moderate stances. With no Senate race and a snoozer reelection of a GOP gov., the South Dakota GOP will train all its fire on Herseth in '06.
Tennessee 04: Lincoln Davis picked up a swing district in 2002 when GOPer Van Hilleary left to run for gov. Davis has had two close but comfortable wins against the same opponent. He could be a target, but may well not be.
Texas 17: Chet Edwards was the only survivor among the Dem targets of the DeLay gerrymander in 2004, beating back a tough challenge in his new, unfriendly district which, ironically, includes Crawford. He will be a top target again.
Utah 02: Jim Matheson is a popular Dem who is the son of a popular Dem who won the Salt Lake City-based seat from certifiable GOP Rep. Merrill Cook in 1998 (? it may have been 2000) The GOP promptly redistricted him out of Salt Lake City into a rural district encompassing the southwest third of the state. He has proceeded to win two squeakers in this district that went for Bush by 2-1 margins both times. He'll be at the top of the target list again.
Vermont at Large: Bernie Sanders is running for the Senate. This is a Dem state, but this is also an open seat. The GOP won the last top of the ticket open seat race (2002 gov), so this should be competitive.
Also, should Sherrod Brown jump into the Ohio Senate race, his district would bear watching. Tim Ryan's, too, but far less so.
The B list (seats we should hold without too much trouble, but that are either in GOP districts, have a weak incumbent, or have been close in recent memory. In most cases, this is the please don't retire list):
AL-05 (Cramer)
AR-01, 02 and 04 (Berry, Snyder and Ross)
GA-02 (Bishop)
IN-07 (Carson)
MN-07 (Peterson)
MO-04 (Skelton)
MS-03 (Taylor)
NC-02, 07 and 13 (Etheridge, McIntyre and Miller)
NV-01 (Berkley)
NY-01 and 27 (Bishop and Higgins)
OK-02 (Boren)
OR-01 and 04 (Wu and DeFazio)
SC-05 (Spratt)
TN-06 and 08 (Gordon and Tanner)
VA-09 (Boucher)
WA-02 and 03 (Larsen and Baird)
WI-03 and 07 (Kind and Obey)
WV-01 and 03 (Mollohan and Rahall)