A
sure recipe for civil war.
Iraq is about to get a government that ignores the interests of the 20% of the population that is most heavily armed and militarily trained.
It is time to start thinking about what an Iraq in the throes of civil war will look like and what it will mean to the world. The middle east isn't exactly the most stable region of the world, and a civil war over some of the world's largest oil reserves might spill over to Saudi Arabia and Iran.
$100 oil?? Try $500 or more.
One day before the deadline for Iraq's new constitution, Sunni Arab negotiators appealed Sunday to the United States and the international community to prevent Shiites and Kurds from pushing a draft charter through parliament without Sunni consent.
An Iraqi government spokesman suggested that if the factions cannot agree on a draft by Monday night, parliament may have to amend the interim constitution yet again to extend the deadline and prevent its dissolution. [...]
Of course domestic political pressures back in America is really the only thing that matters here. And that pressure says "finish this up".
The deadline for a new constitution already was extended by a week last Monday after negotiators failed to reach agreement on a number of contentious issues, including federalism, distribution of Iraq's oil wealth, power relationships among the provinces and the role of the Shiite clerical hierarchy in Najaf.
The 15-member Sunni Arab bloc issued its statement after complaining that it was being sidelined by Shiites and Kurds, who were cutting deals without them.
''At a time when there are few hours left to announce the draft, we still see no active coordination and seriousness to draft the constitution,'' the statement said.
Sunni Arabs said they were only invited to a single meeting with the other community negotiators since Monday. That session was held Friday.
The statement urged the United States, the United Nations and the international community to intervene to prevent a draft constitution from moving forward without unanimous agreement, ''which would make the current crisis more complicated.''
Vice President Adil Abdul-Mahdi, a Shiite, told Forat television that 97 percent of the document had been agreed upon and would be submitted to parliament by the deadline.
Shiites and Kurds have enough seats in parliament to push through a draft even without the Sunnis. Because so many Sunni Arabs boycotted the Jan. 30 elections, they won only 17 of the 275 seats in the National Assembly. Sunni Arabs form an estimated 20 percent of the national population.
But Sunni Arabs could in theory scuttle the constitution in the Oct. 15 referendum. Under current rules, the constitution would be defeated if it is opposed by two-thirds of the voters in three of Iraq's 18 provinces. Sunni Arabs form the majority in at least four. [...]
And on a related note, Baghdad continues to enjoy their new freedoms.
Civilian deaths in Baghdad in July were more than New York City had in all of 2004, and that's excluding car bombings and suicide bombings.
Time magazine reports the surge in non-combat related violence is due to the various sects in Iraq who want to start a civil war.
Reports that death squads are entering quiet Baghdad neighborhoods and killing innocent civilians are growing.
Baghdad central morgue director, Faiq Amin Bakr, said 880 violent deaths occurred in the city in July.
There are more than 5 million people living in Baghdad.
In New York City, with a population of about 8 million, 571 people were killed in 2004.
In Baghdad, another 100 people were killed by terrorism in July.