About a month ago, I posted a diary arguing that we need to have an extensive list of targets given that 2006 is shaping up to be the first Congressional election cycle in a long time in which the national wind is blowing our way. My previous diary was based on my impressions and on some data from 2000 and 2002. I have updated this data and compiled it into a color coded Excel spreadsheet. If anyone knows how to post it, I will do so. In lieu of the full list, I have picked out the districts that look the most promising. I base my assessment on the district's partisan makeup (I assign a score based on averaging Gore's share of the 2000 2-party vote with Kerry's 2004 share plus one and then averaging that number with Charlie Cook's partisan voting index score), the incumbent's winning percentages in 2002 and 2004, and special circumstances surrounding the incumbent or known challengers.
I included: 1. any district where the partisan score was at least 45 (meaning generic R beats generic D 55-45 in a neutral year) and the incumbent won with less than 65% of the two party vote in 2004; 2. any district in which the partisan score was under 45, but the incumbent won with less than 60% in 2004; 3. any open seat in which the partisan score is 40 or above; and 4. 3 special circumstances: Ohio 18 (Bob Ney is connected to coingate), Pennsylvania 10 (Don Sherwood has a personal scandal and is facing a military vet challenging the GOP line on Iraq; potentially Hackett II in a less GOP district) and Florida 7 (Mica pulled only 60% in 2002 and then was unopposed last time). I also excluded Kentucky 4 and Washington 5, two 2004 open seats in GOP districts the GOPer won by over 10 points in 2004.
This method yielded a list of exactly 75 seats. This is a slightly different list from my original 75, which was heavier on entrenched northeastern incumbents in Dem-leaning districts and lighter on GOPers in red states who run behind the national party. I will highlight these 75 7 or 8 at a time. Where there are challengers up and running, please highlight them. If there are not, they need to be found. This is an extensive list. Barring surprise retirements, I doubt that there will be more than one or two opportunities elsewhere.
I divide my 75 by region and will list 6-8 at a time. I'll start with the Northeast. There will be 3 northeast diaries, 2 on the south, 4 on the midwest and 2 on the west.
Connecticut 02
Connecticut's eastern 2d District is the most Democratic district held by a GOPer in the nation. The Congressman is Rob Simmons, who upset veteran Dem Sam Gejdenson in 2000. The district has a Dem partisan score of 57.8 (again, this means that a generic Dem would defeat a generic Republican 57.8-42.2 in a neutral year). Since 2000, Simmons has had two decent but unremarkable challengers and won 54-46 both times. This seat is a prime pickup opportunity.
Connecticut 04
Connecticut 04 is among the wealthiest districts in the nation, containing Fairfield county. It is been steadily trending Dem, and has a partisan makeup of 54.8% Dem. It has been represented for over a decade by Christopher Shays, a moderate GOPer who has been punished by GOP leadership on occasion for stands such as sponsorting the House version of the McCain-Feingold campaign bill. Shays had his first real challenge in 2004, when Diane Farrell held him to a 52-48 victory in a fairly strong GOP year. Farrell is off and running again, and this will be another prime pickup opportunity--especially is Shays decides he doesn't have the stomach for another bruising race.
Connecticut 05
The northwest corner of Connecticut is the least Dem-friendly area of the state (still, the partisan score is 53.5% Dem). It produced disgraced ex-Gov. John Rowland as well as Johnson, a veteran GOPer who has had some tough races over her career, most notably in 1996, when she won by a few hundred votes over a second-tier Dem. That year, Johnson was punished for excessive partisanship in the House Ethics Committee's (which she chaired) investigation of then-speaker Newt Gingrich. She almost lost because the Dems tied her to Newt. Can we tie her to Bush in the same way? Lately, Johnson beat fellow incumbent Jim Maloney 56-44 in 2002 and won 61-39 in '04.
New Hampshire 01
The southeastern New Hampshire seat is the less Dem friendly of the state's two. Still, the state as a whole is closely divided and is the only state to flip from Bush in 2000 to Kerry in '04. The district has a partisan score of 49.3% Dem. The representative in the First CD is Jeb Bradley, who looks like a moderate but votes like a GOP drone. He succeeded John Sununu when the latter was elected to the Senate in 2002, winning 60-40. His win in '04 was with 63%. This is the type of district, though, that we can win in a wave.
New Hampshire 02
This district is slightly more Democratic than the 1st. Its partisan score is 52.8% Dem. It is Represented by Charles Bass, who ousted Dem Dick Swett in the 1994 landslide and has held the seat since, with a few close calls. He won with 58% in 2002 and 60% in 2004. Like the previous two, this district is one that can easily swing our way with a wind at our backs.
New Jersey 03
This central Jersey district is among the more longshot targets on the list of 75. Comprised of parts of Ocean and Burlington counties, it has a Dem partisan score of 53%. Gore took 56% here, while Bush narrowly won the district. The incumbent is Jim Saxton, who has put up some impressive numbers, winning with 66% in 2002 and 64% in 2004. In 2000, Saxton faced a well-financed challenge from Cherry Hill Mayor Susan Bass Levin and won 57-43. Under the right circumstances, however, this could be an upset win.
New Jersey 05
New Jersey's northern 5th District is a wealthy suburban district that the Republicans have held as long as I can remember. Its partisan score is 45.5% Dem. It was represented for years by moderate GOPer Marge Roukema. She was succeeded by wingnut Scott Garrett in 2002, creating a potential opening for Dems. Garrett took 61% in '02 and 59% in '04. He has never run in a Dem year. There likely will be a strong challenger here.
New Jersey 07
This central Jersey district has been a near miss for Dems. It is a moderate district with a 49.3% Dem makeup. We had high hopes for it when it was open in 2000, but GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson won 51-49 and has held on with 59% and 58% since (after redistricting made it slightly more GOP). He should be targeted if we can find a candidate.
Next installment: New York (5 Districts)