On Wednesday, I posted the third in what will be a series of profiles of potentially vulnerable GOP seats. That diary included West Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan. It can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/14/181441/929. The second covered New York and Pennsylvania and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/13/182810/480. The first included New England and New Jersey and can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/12/193114/114
As noted yesterday, based on the national climate (if it holds), we should be in position to make some big gains in 2006; the Presidential approval numbers, Congressional approval numbers, and Generic ballot numbers compare with those in late 1993, before the GOP sweep of 1994.
I base my assessment of where we can win on the district's partisan makeup (I assign a score based on averaging Gore's share of the 2000 2-party vote with Kerry's 2004 share plus one and then averaging that number with Charlie Cook's partisan voting index score), the incumbent's winning percentages in 2002 and 2004, and special circumstances surrounding the incumbent or known challengers.
I included: 1. any district where the partisan score was at least 45 (meaning generic R beats generic D 55-45 in a neutral year) and the incumbent won with less than 65% of the two party vote in 2004; 2. any district in which the partisan score was under 45, but the incumbent won with less than 60% in 2004; 3. any open seat in which the partisan score is 40 or above; and 4. 3 special circumstances: Ohio 18 (Bob Ney is connected to coingate), Pennsylvania 10 (Don Sherwood has a personal scandal and is facing a military vet challenging the GOP line on Iraq; potentially Hackett II in a less GOP district) and Florida 7 (Mica pulled only 60% in 2002 and then was unopposed last time). I also excluded Kentucky 4 and Washington 5, two 2004 open seats in GOP districts the GOPer won by over 10 points in 2004, and Ohio 2, where Paul Hackett looks unlikely to seek a rematch with Jean Schmidt.
Today, I focus on 4 more midwestern states. Of these, Illinois and Wisconsin both are states with bipartisan incumbent-protection maps. Indiana has a Dem-drawn map intended to shore up the then-four Dem members of the delegation. So far, it has failed; we're down to two seats. Minnesota has a court-drawn map that is very GOP-friendly.
The districts:
Indiana 02 (Chris Chocola)
The 2d Congressional District of Indiana is the north central part of the state and is centered on South Bend, which for three decades has seen plenty of close congressional contests. This is an industrial and ethnic city that has long been Democratic; so is LaPorte County around Michigan City. Elkhart County to the east is heavily Republican and conservative. The 2d District also includes several counties on the limestone plains to the south down past the Wabash River. This is an area that has been part of the Republican heartland since the party was created in the 1850s. Moderate Democrat Tim Roemer represented this area for 12 years before he retired in 2002. Indiana Democrats drew the lines of the 2d to maximize their chance to hold it by including Democratic Michigan City, excluding much of heavily Republican Elkhart County and adding the industrial town of Kokomo at its southern edge. But Roemer did not run for reelection in 2002, and the partisan lines were not enough to elect a Democrat. Instead, Chocola won 52-48 and was reelected 55-45 in '04. The partisan makeup is 45.3% Dem. Chocola should see another serious challenge here.
Indiana 08 (John Hostettler)
The 8th is one of two districts in southern Indiana, both of which are on this list. The 8th is southwest Indiana and centers on two population centers: Evansville and Terre Haute. Until the remap, the 8th also included Dem-friendly Bloomington, home of Indiana University. In 2002, however, Bloomington was shifted to the 9th in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to protect former Dem Rep. Baron Hill. This district has become known as the "Bloody Eighth" for its tight congressional races. At one point in the 1970s it elected four different congressmen in four successive elections. In 1984, the state certified the Republican as the winner by exactly 34 votes, but the Democratic U.S. House overturned the result. Since then, it has been as fiercely contested as ever. The trend in presidential politics, however, is away from national Democrats: Bill Clinton twice carried it by 2%, but in 2000 George W. Bush won 56% followed by 62% in 2004. Its current partisan score is 41% Dem. Hostettler narrowly won the district in the GOP sweep of 1994, ousting Frank McCloskey, whose tenuous hold on the seat began in 1984. Hostettler has never won with more than 54% of the two party vote. That's what he took in '04 after getting 53% in '02. He will be a top target again.
Indiana 09 (Mike Sodrel)
The 9th Congressional District of Indiana is made up of most of the state's Ohio River counties. It includes the Indiana University campus in the rolling hills of Democratic-leaning Bloomington. To the east is Batesville, home of the Batesville Casket Company, which makes the caskets used for U.S. military personnel who die in the line of duty. Business has been brisk of late. Most of the district is ancestrally Democratic and culturally conservative; much of it has recently been trending Republican, particularly in the suburbs of Cincinnati. The district has a 42.5% Dem makeup. It was represented for years by conservative Dem Lee Hamilton, who retired in 2000. Baron Hill retained the seat for the Dems and beat back a strong challenge from GOPer Mike Sodrel 53-47 in 2002. Sodrel came back for a rematch in 2004 and won by 1400 votes (50-50) on Bush's coattails in '04. Hill is back for Hill-Sodrel III--the Grudge Match. This race ranks among Dems top pickup opportunities in 2006.
Illinois 06 (Open seat)
The 6th Congressional District of Illinois includes O'Hare and much of the suburban area to its west. Most of the district is in DuPage County, the second largest county in Illinois. It includes the string of long-settled suburbs due west of the Loop: Elmhurst, Villa Park, Lombard, Glen Ellyn, Wheaton, plus the newer suburbs along I-290 and Lake Street: Bensenville, Addison, Wood Dale, Bloomingdale. Economically, this remains high-income territory; culturally, it is now cautiously moderate or even liberal. Politically, it has become less overwhelmingly Republican. In 1988 George Bush carried DuPage by 124,000 votes, with 68% of the vote, but in 2004 George W. Bush carried the county by only 39,000, with 54% of the vote--which tells you in a nutshell why the elder Bush carried Illinois in 1988 and the younger Bush twice wrote it off. The district is now 46.8% Dem. The congressman since before I was born is Henry "Scumbag" Hyde, wingnut author of the Hyde Amendment and Clinton impeachment manager. Dem and Dkos poster Christine Cegelis gave Hyde his first strong challenge since he was first elected in 2004, taking 44% of the vote despite being outspent 4-1. Hyde, in the great tradition of chickenhawks, has decided to retire rather than face Christine again. Instead, she will face state senator and DeLay stooge Peter Roskam. This will be a close one--and should be near the top of target lists.
Illinois 10 (Mark Kirk)
Ed. note: This is the district where I grew up, so I may be a tad biased and/or longwinded.
The 10th Congressional District of Illinois is the North Shore suburban district, starting on the Wilmette lakefront, running north to the city of Waukegan and almost to the Wisconsin border. The district goes inland to Northbrook and Deerfield. Farther inland are suburbs like Arlington Heights and Wheeling. To the north is Libertyville. With the big movement toward Democrats in the Chicago suburbs in the 1990s, this establishment Republican district voted narrowly for Al Gore in 2000 and by a slightly larger margin for John Kerry in 2004. Its partisan makeup is 53.5% Dem, making it the 5th most Dem-friendly district on the target list. The incumbent is Mark Kirk, who was chief of staff to popular longtime incumbent John Porter. When Porter retired in 2000, Dems saw the opportunity and made this a top targeted race. The GOP primary that year was 9 candidates deep and only Porter's last minute public endorsement of Kirk put him over the top. The Dems ran Lauren Beth Gash, a state Rep. from Highland Park and an excellent candidate on paper. She ran a crappy campaign (aided and abetted by clueless D.C. based consultants) and Kirk won 51-49. The Dems have basically given Kirk a pass since, and he has taken 69% and 64% against token opposition. With a strong challenger, however, Kirk is beatable.
Illinois 11 (Jerry Weller)
The 11th Congressional District of Illinois is the border territory between the southwest Chicago suburbs and downstate. It includes most of Will County, the fastest-growing of the large suburban Chicago counties, and its county seat of Joliet--politically marginal territory. Farther west, on bluffs above the Illinois River heading down to the Mississippi, are the factory towns of Ottawa and LaSalle and, to the south, Streator; this is LaSalle County, also politically marginal (it was Barack Obama's first Illinois campaign stop after the Democratic National Convention). South of Joliet is Kankakee; this is Republican territory. Redistricting in 2001 removed from the 11th the southernmost townships of Cook County, which were increasingly Democratic, and added two ungainly-looking appendages. One goes west to rural Bureau County; the other heads south at the intersection of I-80 and I-39 and includes most of Bloomington in McLean County, one of the faster-growing Downstate counties. The 2001 redistricting made this district more Republican than its 1990s incarnation; its partisan score is 48.5% Dem. The congressman is Jerry Weller, first elected in 1994. He took 64% in 2002, but only 59% in 2004. With the right candidate, Weller can be defeated.
Wisconsin 08 (open seat)
The 8th Congressional District of Wisconsin is a northern Wisconsin district which includes Green Bay and the Fox River Valley south to Appleton. It also includes sprawling north woods and dairy counties inland, plus the Door County peninsula that juts out into Lake Michigan. Politically, this has often been malleable country. Democrats can win here: John F. Kennedy, with enthusiasm from local Catholics, carried the Fox River Valley in the primary and general election in 1960, and Bill Clinton carried it in 1996. But the 8th District these days more often votes Republican; George W. Bush won 52% of the vote in 2000 and 55% in 2004. Its overall partisan score is 45.8% Dem. The incumbent, Mark Green is leaving to challenge Dem Governor Jim Doyle. The last time this seat was open, in 1996, the Dems won it. In a strong Dem year, as 2006 is shaping up to be, we can win it again.
Minnesota 01 (Gil Gutknecht)
The 1st Congressional District of Minnesota includes the state's two southern tiers of counties, running along Interstate 90 just north of the Iowa border. It stretches 280 miles from the South Dakota border at Sioux Falls to the Wisconsin border at LaCrosse. Rochester has long been a Republican stronghold, though not by much in 2004; like many communities with large numbers of professionals, it has been trending toward Democrats. Austin with its working class tradition has long been solidly Democratic-Farmer-Labor. To the west, Mankato voted narrowly for John Kerry and the population-losing farm counties between Mankato and the South Dakota border voted solidly Republican. The overall partisan score is 48.8% Dem. The incumbent is yet another 1994 GOPer. Gil Gutknecht won the district as an open seat when conservative Dem Tim Penny retired. He was targeted throughout the 1990s, but of late has faced only minor opposition, taking 64% and 62% against underfunded opponents in '02 and '04. In a strong Dem year, Gutknecht can be vulnerable.
Minnesota 02 (John Kline)
The 2d District is a suburban/rural district south of the Twin Cities. It includes such places as Eagan, Lakeville, Apple Valley, Mendota Heights and Burnsville in Dakota County. More upscale are the suburbs of Scott and Carver Counties. Farther south on Interstate 35, the district also includes farm country as well as towns such as Northfield, the home of Carleton College. Historically, Dakota County, just south of St. Paul, which casts nearly half the votes in the district, was marginally Democratic, while the other counties were fairly heavily Republican. But in 1998 this was Jesse Ventura Country: in that three-way race he carried each of the counties in the district, with a sharply increased turnout. As the suburbs have continued growing, Ventura country has become more Republican. George W. Bush narrowly carried Dakota County in 2000 and 2004, and produced big margins for Republican Senator Norm Coleman and Governor Tim Pawlenty in 2002. The only remaining DFL stronghold here is Rice County, home of Northfield. The district is now 46.5% Dem. The incumbent, John Kline, won here in 2002 on his third try against Dem Bill Luther. Kline's win was largely attributable to the GOP-friendly remap, which split Luther's district in half. Kline won in 2002 with 56% of the two party vote and won in 2004 against a well-funded, active challenger with 58%. This year, the Dem is FBI whistleblower Coleen Rowley. In a year in which the incompetence and corruption of the GOP will be front and center, she may be the perfect candidate.
Minnesota 06 (open seat)
The 6th Congressional District of Minnesota is a suburban and exurban district north of St. Paul and Minneapolis. It dips as far south and east as Stillwater, with new riverfront housing developments along the St. Croix. It spreads north over Washington and Anoka Counties, just north of the Twin Cities, with a mix of upscale and working class suburbs. To the northwest, along the Mississippi River, are Wright, Sherburne and Benton Counties, which have grown rapidly, from 140,000 in 1990 to 224,000 in 2003, up 59%. This district is 44.8% Dem. The incumbent is Mark Kennedy, who won one of two big upsets against entrenched Dems in 2000, defeating David Minge (Rob Simmons' win over Sam Gejdenson in Connecticut 02 was the other). Kennedy is leaving to run for the open Senate seat. Dems want 2004 candidate Patty Wetterling (who held Kennedy to a 54-46 win) to abandon her own Senate bid to run for this seat. If she does, she will likely be slightly favored. Even if not, this will be a competitive open seat race.