Pls unreco this and reco
this new thrread
URGENT STORM WARNING FOR GULF COAST FROM CORPUS CHRISTI THROUGH HOUSTON TO NOLA.
[Link] Radar imagery out of Lake Charles; Eye of Rita - and along with the last RECON and Satellite data -locates the center of the storm near 27.4N/92.0W or 215NM from Galveston, 205NM SE of Port Arthur and 190 miles from Cameron, LA. The latest observed pressure by RECON was 929MB, with MAX sustained surface winds of 125mph, and gusts to 150mph.
Eye of the storm is now closed off at 28NM diameter, and the cloud thermal eye wall temp
differential has begun to increase again from just 3° C to 7°C in the last 6 hours. Rita may strengthen some during the day today as it passes over a deep layer of very warm water. By Saturday morning, RITA will likely make landfall as a very strong CAT 3 or borderline CAT 4 Hurricane.
Houston
Real Time Traffic Info; Local
Houston News w/streaming video link; NOLA
Local news w/streaming video link; KTRH 740 Houston
streaming AM radio
NOAA Three-day Storm Track.
Steve adds:
It is extremely important to realize that the forecast accuracy - even at 24 hours out -- averages 100NM -- theoretically, the statistics indicate the storm could make landfall anywhere from Freeport,TX to east of Cameron, LA. With the model guidance so tightly clustered on the coast between High Island and the TX/LA state line -- and for such a long period of time -- there is an unusually high level of confidence that the storm will in fact make landfall between these latter locations. The 'wobble' associated with powerful hurricanes such as Rita can lead to a landfall deviation of 25NM or more even when the storm is less than 6 hours from landfall - the exact situation that occurred with Katrina.
Keep this on the reco list and we'll keep updating. Otherwise I'm going to pass out
Update: Engineers now reporting flooding in NOLA, ninth ward, 30 foot breach. Unconfirmed report of two other breaches opening up but unclear if this is overtopping or actual breaks. Overtopping reported at several points.
General Advisory: The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Gulf Coast stretching from Port O"Connner TX to Morgan City, LA. A tropical storm warning for the New Orleans Metro Area and west of Port O'Connor TX. A hurricane warning means the area is expected to experience hurricane conditions within 24 hrs. The next eye wall cycle if we get one will [probably] greatly effect actual strength at landfall. But the storm surge will hang on even if she weakens prior to that time.
Texas Advisory: A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Greater Houston area. Note -- this thing is coming in at an angle. If she holds that bearing for just a few hours after landfall the eye will get closer to the Houston Metro Area. She's predicted to make a gentle northerely turn real soon. But a wobble could still put the eye on top of Houston.
Report: Many stranded motorists in Sealy, TX. My guess is this same scenerio is being played out all through TX and LA. HT: RandyMI who has been contributing greatly to this effort.
Note -- More reports coming in of large congregations of stranded motorists, some numbering in the hundreds or thousands. And they are PISSED! Other reports of numerous, desperate, quasi-encampments springing up along roadsides. Fuel trucks have been dispatched but there's no logistical way I can see for them to fix the bulk of it prior to landfall. In fact many of the trucks had the wrong kind of nozzles and they're having to transfer fuel using smaller handheld containers and siphon hoses. This could get very ugly, real fast.
San Antonio through Waco and all the way to Dallas-Fort Worth are now experiencing a massive influx of evacuees. Local sources confirm to me areas north and west of Houston are running out of everyday items and gasoline. Estimated at perhaps three million people total and many of them are still in transit, or haven't left yet. This may be the largest civilian movement in recent US history.
Eyewitness account:
[Link] "It was amazing," said John Rucker, who lives west of Houston in Katy. "Just lines of cars as far as the eye could see headed west on the interstate at 3:30 in the morning."
Some of these folks have no where to go or won't be able to find rooms. Thousands may run out of gas or experience mechanical problems on I-35, I-10, or HWY 290 (And other roads) leading to safety. You may see numerous families walking on the side of the road. This exodus will put a demand on goods and services in numbers that may simply overwhelm local resources as the population in each of San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas-Ft Worth swell by hundreds of thousands over night. Be patient, be ready to help your neighbors from the south if they need your help. There is a chance Rita will shift due west over Houston and/or Central/North Texas a day or two after landfall bringing torrential ran and flash flooding.
Some poor residents not being evacuated.
Storm Surge Advisory: Present track would predict a 20 foot plus storm surge warning from just east of Galveston, through Port Arthur Texas, extending east 30-60 miles through Louisiana coast almost to Morgan City.
LEAVE THESE AREAS IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND. ALSO, THE MOST AFFECTED REGION[S] COULD CHANGE IN A HEARTBEAT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF THE STORM WOBBLES EAST OR WEST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DO NOT ASSUME YOUR AREA WILL BE SPARED THE CATASTROPHIC SURGE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO RETURN TO YOUR AREA IF YOU HAVE EVACUATED.
This surge could inundate coastal towns and communities 20 miles inland just east of strike zone. Surge farther east in NOLA and Biloxi has the potential to reach ten feet. NOLA could see extensive re-flooding. Even regions as far southwest as Corpus Christi/Rockport, Texas, could experience severe flooding with just a wobble in the storm's path.
Energy Advisory: Current track is Offshore Energy Production Nightmare Scenario. See also The Oil Drum
for outstanding coverage of this concern. Steve Gregory adds:
92 percent of U.S. crude oil production and 66 percent of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico shut-in (combined total from Katrina and now Rita) as of 11:30 a.m. CDT Thursday
Since Katrina, cumulative loss is 28.5 million barrels of crude/ 131.757 bcf of NG (roughly 2% of total U.S. annual production - and counting). Gulf of Mexico platforms still evacuated totaled 605 of 819 manned platforms. Rigs evacuated totaled 87 of 134.
Big threat now to NG production -- plus the shut-down of Port Arthur and the Loop. 20 foot storm surge and angle of attack will tear though a lot of rigs along the NW-SE orientated southwest coast of LA right into NE TX. I don't think the market (especially NG) has priced in the kind of long term loss of NG and infrastructure that could result. NG could go another 20%, oil 5%, but oil will give it all back -- NG may not.
Quick reminder: A Cat 3 storm is a major hurricane. I weathered a weak 3/strong 2 called Frances last year here in Florida. We were almost 100 miles away from the center. Our home is steel reinforced cinder-block with a customized storm roof and double trusses reinforced at joints with metal plates and bolted onto the steel wall-frame. It was the most miserable experience of my life during and after.
For 24 hours the wind shrieked like a screaming, warbling, freight train, there was a constant din of what sounded like golf balls hitting the house and roof punctuated by incessant loud thuds that rang the entire home like a bell. The walls and ceiling were visibly breathing. I could see the stone fire place inside moving an inch or two all through it.
Now and then you'd hear a big crash nearby, outside, that sounded like an SUV plowing through a home, or a crack as a large tree splintered. My house suffered little damage, gutters were torn off and some impact damage from who knows what. Homes on my street had siding ripped off, trees down, porches and lanais were littered around like twisted metal balls, electric lines were draped all over the hood, some roofs were partially gone and most had visible damage. And all these homes are built to similar stringent codes as my own. And afterward we had no power, water, phones, or gas and supplies, for over a week. That's a weak 3 and not even the eye--a month before the election in Florida!
So if this thing does weaken to a strong three and Houston is 50 miles away from the eye, my guess is that most homes will be left standing and an interior bathroom will provide essential life preserving shelter. But plenty of those wood-frame homes will be damaged, many of them will have the roof seriously compromised and maybe sections ripped off and walls caved in. A lotta folks couldn't find wood to board up and most of those windows will be broken, trees may fall on some homes and come through the walls. Etc.
A Cat 3 is a MAJOR storm.