I have been putting together a series of profiles of U.S. House of Representatives races to focus on in 2006. We currently hold 202 seats plus one independent who is a DIABN--a Dem in all but name--Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The GOP has 232 seats. Therefore, a net gain of 15 seats gives the Dems control, 218-217 (it won't depend on Sanders because he is running for the Senate and will almost certainly be replaced by a Dem or GOPer). I started the series by profiling 74 seats held by GOPers that because of demographics and/or issues with the incumbents could be vulnerable to takeover. I finished that series with a (mostly) objective ranking of these seats by vulnerability. That analysis (plus links to the individual district profiles) can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/23/173131/345
I then used the same criteria to generate a list of 42 seats which we hold that could be vulnerable to a GOP takeover under the right (or wrong) circumstances. I similarly ranked those seats by vulnerability. That diary can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/26/15543/5440.
Now, I am going to complete the circuit by profiling the 42 races on the "to defend" list. Remember, most of these races won't ultimately even be competitive. But, to the extent any of our seats are in danger, they are on this list. (Caveat: obviously, not-yet-announced retirements can potentially add vulnerable seats). In these profiles, I will include where the race falls on the ranking and my own forecast of likely competitive, possibly competitive, or unlikely competitive.
My methodology for inclusion and also for determination of district partisan makeup is explained in the previous diaries.
This installment will feature our potentially vulnerable seats in the Northeast, Virginia, and North Carolina. The seats:
Maine 02 (Mike Michaud) (#26, unlikely to be competitive)
The 2d District of Maine is heavily forested, rough-hewn and enormous. It covers the northern three-quarters of the state's acreage; it is the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi, larger than New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts combined. This was Ross Perot's strongest congressional district in the United States in 1992 and 1996. The 2d was carried narrowly by Al Gore in 2000 and by a little wider margin by John Kerry in 2004. Overall, it is 53.3% Dem. This was Olympia Snowe's (R) seat for years until her successful 1994 run for the Senate. That year, Dem John Baldacci became the only Democrat to pick up a Republican-held seat, winning this seat narrowly. Baldacci held it comfortably until 2002, when he vacated it for his successful gubernatorial bid. That year, moderate Dem Michaud won a 52-48 contest. The GOP came after him in 2004, but he won comfortably, 60-40. Michaud has a moderate voting record in the House (the National Journal has him at 67/33 Lib/Con), and is a good fit for the district. The GOP's best chance to take him out would have been in '04, but, while unlikely, this could still be a close race.
Vermont at Large (open seat) (#23--possibly competitive)(I bumped it up a couple of notches after considering comments)
Vermont is one of the most reliably liberal states in the U.S. and has sent Socialist Bernie Sanders to Washington every even year since 1990. The state went 59-41 for Gore and 61-39 for Kerry (of the two-party vote). Overall, its partisan score is 59.5% Dem. Nonetheless, the GOP picked up the governorship in 2002, held a Senate seat from 1988-2001 (Jeffords), and won this House seat the last time it was open, in 1988. Of particular worry is the possibility of a three-way race with a lefty third party candidate, as occurred in the 2002 Gov race. Nonetheless, this open seat race is only possibly competitive.
New York 01 (Tim Bishop) (#22--possibly competitive)
The 1st Congressional District of New York, consisting of the eastern end of Long Island, ousted its incumbent congressmen in both 2000 and 2002, the only district in the nation to do so. The 1st covers eastern Suffolk County, now more populous (1.47 million people) and faster growing (12% growth from 1990 to 2004) than Nassau County, its neighbor to the west. The district runs as far east as Smithtown on the North Shore and Patchogue on the South Shore. It also includes Shelter Island, located between the north and south fork of Long Island's "fishtail," and Plum Island. The 1st includes two areas frequented in the summer by urban sophisticates: all of the Hamptons, and most of Fire Island National Seashore. Suffolk County was long one of the most conservative parts of New York, though not very conservative by today's national standards. Republican voter registration remains high, and Suffolk voted strongly for Governor George Pataki's reelection in 2002 and for county native Rick Lazio in the 2000 Senate race against Hillary Clinton. It voted solidly for Gore in 2000 but made a big swing toward Bush in 2004, giving him a narrow winning margin. Overall, the district has a partisan score of 52.8% Dem. The Congressman is Tim Bishop, who ousted GOP freshman incumbent Felix Grucci in 2002, winning 51-49. Grucci self-destructed after putting out a despicable attack ad accusing Bishop of covering up campus rapes while provost of Southampton College. Grucci in turn won in 2000 when local district Dems didn't cotton to GOP incumbent Michael Forbes's (a 1994 GOPer) party switch. Rather than nominate Forbes, primary voters (by a margin of 35 votes) opted for a 71-year old librarian with no cash and no political experience. Grucci crushed her in the general. Bishop was targeted by the GOP in 2004, but went on to win 56-44. He has compiled a moderate to liberal voting record (72 Lib/28 Con). Like Michaud, the GOP's best chance at ousting Bishop has come and gone. The district is so volatile, however, that the possibility cannot be discounted.
New York 27 (Brian Higgins) (#15--possibly competitive)
The 27th Congressional District of New York consists of the eastern and southern two-thirds of Buffalo, plus most of the Erie County suburbs east and south of the city--from working-class Cheektowaga and Lackawanna to higher-income Hamburg and Orchard Park. The 27th also includes Chautauqua County. Although some of the Buffalo suburbs are Republican, this district overall is solidly Democratic. But as Buffalo struggled, it became politically volatile. In 1992 Buffalo gave Ross Perot 28% of the vote, his best showing in a central city anywhere; in 1994 Mario Cuomo, who had always run well in Buffalo, lost Erie County to George Pataki, who carried Erie County again in 1998 and 2002. But in contests for president and senator, Buffalo and Erie County have remained solidly Democratic. The district is overall 56.3% Dem. It was represented by moderate GOPer Jack Quinn from 1992 until his retirement in 2004. Higgins won a hard fought 51-49 victory to succeed Quinn. He may well face a strong GOP challenge, as many freshmen do (especially since he's next door to NRCC chair Tom Reynolds), but this is a Dem district which reverted to form in 2004.
Pennsylvania 13 (Allyson Schwartz) (#28--unlikely competitive)
The 13th Congressional District of Pennsylvania includes much of southeastern and central Montgomery County and most of Northeast Philadelphia. Historically Montgomery was quintessentially Republican, but, like other affluent suburbs in the Boston-Washington corridor, it swung toward the Dems in national politics in the 1990s, with abortion and other cultural issues usually trumping economic interests. The same county that voted by large margins for Reagan and George H.W. Bush in the 1980s has voted strictly for Democratic presidential candidates since then. In 2002 Montgomery County backed Democrat and former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell for governor by a 2-1 margin, though Republicans in 2004 regained control of the county commission. Northeast Philadelphia has a different political heritage--the most GOP part of a strongly Dem city. In 2004, 59% of the district's votes were cast in Montgomery County, 41% in Northeast Philadelphia. The district overall is 57.8% Dem. It was represented by Dem Joe Hoeffel until his unsuccessful 2004 Senate run. Schwartz picked it up, winning a hard-fought and expensive campaign 58-42 against a GOPer who held Hoeffel to a 52-48 win in 2002. Schwartz is a fundraising machine in a district trending Dem in a state with Ed Rendell and Bob Casey topping the Dem ticket. While a freshman Dem in a somewhat competitive district, Schwartz most likely will cruise in 2006.
Pennsylvania 17 (Tim Holden) (#11--likely competitive)
The 17th Congressional District of Pennsylvania includes two distinct areas: the agricultural lands adjoining the Susquehanna River, and the industrial areas of Schuylkill and Berks Counties. The first is centered on the state capital of Harrisburg; it includes Dauphin County, part of Perry County just across the river and Lebanon County to the east. The eastern half of the district has a grittier heritage. In Berks and Schuylkill Counties the farmers were rough-hewn and more violence-prone, and the towns existed solely to mine rich veins of anthracite coal, the primary energy source of late 19th and early 20th century America; although the big companies abandoned the mines long ago, some local entrepreneurs still go deep underground to blast their way into the anthracite. Politically, the 17th leans Republican. Harrisburg has been a Republican town since the Civil War. Lebanon County is even more solidly Republican. Schuylkill County, in contrast, has a Democratic heritage from its mining days, though its Democrats tend to take conservative stands on cultural issues like abortion and guns. Berks County is somewhat more Republican. Overall, the district gave Bush 58-42 wins in both 2000 and 2004. This is a gerrymandered district intended to finish off Holden by pairing him with GOP incumbent George Gekas in a district which is only 42.8% Dem. Instead, Holden upset Gekas 51-49 in 2002 and demolished weak GOPer Scott Paterno 60-40 in 2004. He is a moderate-to-conservative Dem (55 Lib/45 Con) and as such fits the district. Still, this is too GOP terrain for Holden to rest easily. Expect another hard fight here in 2006.
Maryland 03 (open seat) (#17--possibly competitive)
The 3d Congressional District of Maryland consists of three oddly disjointed portions that extend from the locus of the Inner Harbor area. Its boundaries were designed by Democrats with politics in mind: The 3d envelops on three sides the majority-black 7th District and is itself enveloped on three sides by the 2d District, which redistricters made more Democratic than the 3d. One spoke extends northeast from black city neighborhoods into mostly white suburbs. Another extends north and west from the city to the Baltimore County seat of Towson and the heavily Jewish suburbs of Pikesville and Owings Mills. The largest bloc of voters is in the crooked spoke that extends southwest, past the old rowhouse neighborhoods overlooking Fort McHenry and out past blue-collar Arbutus into Linthicum in Anne Arundel County, and continuing to Annapolis. Just over one-third of the district population resides in Anne Arundel County (including all of Annapolis); a quarter resides within Baltimore city itself. A small portion of Howard County is also in the 3d, consisting of parts of Elkridge and Columbia in Howard County. Redistricting left the 3d District less Democratic than it had been; the Bush 2000 percentage vote increased from 34% to 41%. Still, the district is 56.8% Dem. The incumbent, Ben Cardin, has not had a competitive race since his election in 1986; his closest race was his 65-35 win in 2004. Cardin is running for the Senate, however, and as an open seat, this district presents the GOP with a second-tier target.
Virginia 09 (Rick Boucher) (#20--possibly competitive)
The 9th Congressional District covers all of Southwest Virginia west of Roanoke. Over the years, the district became known as the ''Fighting Ninth,'' because of its taste for raucous politics, culturally conservative and economically populist. Lately, it has become somewhat more like the rest of Virginia, as development has moved down Interstate 81 to, and even past, Blacksburg, home of Virginia Tech. It now includes Patrick County. Mountain counties farther west continue to depend on coal and to lose population. The district voted narrowly for Bill Clinton twice, and for 1996 Democratic Senate candidate Mark Warner, but by much wider margins, for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. No other Virginia district voted for that combination. Overall, the district is only 42.5% Dem. It is the last of the southern Virginia districts held by the Dems; when the party had a 6-5 edge in the delegation as recently as 1999, it held every southern Virginia seat. The incumbent, Rick Boucher, was first elected in 1982. He has compiled a moderate record (64 Lib/36 Con in '03-'04). After a couple of tough campaigns, he has settled in to regular 60-40 or better wins. His 60-40 margin in 2004 was Boucher's weakest showing since 1994, and has prompted rumblings of a strong GOP effort here in 2006, however. Nonetheless, I expect Boucher to come through it unscathed.
North Carolina 02 (Bob Etheridge) (#30--unlikely to be competitive)
The 2d Congressional District of North Carolina consists of an irregular loop south of Raleigh, taking in parts of nine counties, including Wake County, which is split between three congressional districts. It dips south to include parts of hog-producing Sampson County and Cumberland County, including parts of the Army's Fort Bragg and Pope Air Force Base. The district has an 8% Hispanic population, the highest of any in North Carolina. This is by and large the blue collar, country music part of the booming Raleigh-Durham metro area, a place where most voters have a Democratic heritage but many have gotten into the habit of voting Republican for major offices. In 2000 it voted for George W. Bush and for Democratic Governor Mike Easley. In 2002 it voted for Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole. Despite the presence of John Edwards on the Democratic ticket, the 2d voted for Bush again in 2004. It is 46.8% Dem overall. Etheridge is a popular, veteran Dem, however. He first won in 1996, ousting a Gingrich baby named David Funderburk, 53-47. Since then, Etheridge gradually increased his winning percentage up to 66-34 in 2002. In 2002, he dipped to a 62-38 win. Etheridge is a popular moderate (63 Lib/37 Con), and I highly doubt he will face any sort of challenge. He did, however, barely make the list using my expansive criteria.
North Carolina 13 (Brad Miller) (#29--unlikely to be competitive)
The 13th Congressional District of North Carolina is a district created after the state, to the surprise of just about everybody, gained a new House seat from the 2000 Census. Almost half, 47%, of the residents in the 13th live in Wake County. It includes the center of Raleigh, a tangent going off to North Carolina State University and much of the northern part of the county, but includes relatively few of the affluent new subdivisions that are mostly in the 4th District. Another 18% of its residents live in Guilford County, where it includes black neighborhoods and the University of North Carolina's Greensboro campus. The rest of the district includes all or most of four counties up to the Virginia border--Granville, Person, Caswell, Rockingham--historically rural and Democratic, with fairly large black percentages. The district lines were drawn by the Democratic legislature to produce a new Democratic district, one of the few created in the South in recent decades which does not have a majority or near-majority of blacks; only 27% of its residents are black. But the rural counties have a historical Democratic heritage, and university neighborhoods are heavily Democratic. The district was very closely divided in the 2000 and 2004 presidential races, with George W. Bush winning narrowly in 2000 and John Kerry winning by a slight margin in 2004. Overall, the district is 51.8% Dem. The incumbent is Brad Miller, a former member of the state legislature involved in the redistricting process--in other words, our Tom Feeney or Thaddeus McCotter. Miller has won with 57% in 2002 and 59% in '04. Miller has been a moderate-to-liberal vote in the House (70/30 Lib). He likely will win again easily.