The media is ready, they've got a candidate up riding momentum, and all that seems to be in waiting for John Kerry is to become the anointed (like they knew all along). Winning Iowa and New Hampshire, they will say, all but determines this is over. But, if you look under the hood of John Kerry's campaign machine, you'll see little depth. Kerry had to self-fund himself in order to even remain in the contest, and up until a few days ago, was absent from having much any of an official ground presence or media exposure, in the seven 2/3 contests. John Kerry, in December, pooled all the resources into Iowa, bet on Red, and won. Now he's in New Hampshire with the lead, just a few days before the primary election.
Standing in front of Gephardt's now-defunct Manchester campaign HQ's, talking with a construction supporter from North Carolina, I thought, why is Kerry, already likely to win here on Tuesday, investing further resources by setting up last-minute phone banks, instead of setting up offices in the 2/3 states? Either Kerry senses that the early reports of Dean's demise are just that, and this really is close, or ( check out te "best against Bush" poll numbers), Kerry's going for the crushing blow in NH by pulling over nearly all the late deciders.
Here's the possible NH outcomes for Kerry:
A devastating loss that puts Kerry on the defensive, forces him to further self-fund his campaign, and takes away his momentum.
A win by less than 10 percent which would maintain his frontrunner status, but he'd have some convincing to do in February states, where multi-state losses remain in the cards.
A huge win by Kerry with ~45%, and Dean/Clark/Edwards having ~15% each, which would kick in the media's anointment.
The latter is what the Kerry folks are gunning for happening. It's a longshot, but Kerry is betting it all on Red again.
Then I walk into the speech, 30 or so minutes late, and get to within 20 feet rather easily. I tried to recall what was there, back around December of 2000 & January of 2001, when I thought of myself as a Kerry backer. He's very competitive, knows how to win, and likes the outdoors. But the speech seems tired, uninspiring, and even more listless then when I last saw him speak on the campaign trail 10 months ago.
The event is Veterans-focused, war stories ramble on, it does nothing for me but bring Bob Dole to mind. The Vietnam hero narrative doesn't work especially well on the internet. There's a reason why the decision-makers in the broadcast media, and John Kerry's advisors, know it matters. TV, because that's where it does work. It's adds a detached, not present passion to the calculated candidate's portrayal. If the NH primary election were decided by those 45 and younger, Kerry would not win. But that's not the case & what was not remembered in writing off Kerry was that he is a media-focused candidate, and that typically, when the focus turns in the last week of the election, it is the broadcast voters whom decide the outcome. Dean has been too hot for TV-- until this past week, peak growth among the internet activists in joining was 6 months ago. Opening with Judy, Howard Dean is finally making the transition to telling his message over the TV. Meanwhile, Kerry been cool, waiting for the TV broadcast medium all along. Now is his moment. If you ask many a Kerry supporter why, the most responded with answer is that he's "electable." Ask why further, and you'll get something like, "he's real." He's the safe, tough, choice against Bush. Good job Michael Whouley & Mary Beth Cahill.
Lingering on, I listen to Kerry do some Q & A with a meandering focus. The crowd attending the event reminds me of walking into a Democratic Party Committee or County event. There's also a sense of confidence among the staffers present, assured by the media that Dean's insurgent band of bloggers are now obsolete-- that the world order still works. We'll see.
Rob Reiner is in New Hampshire. I listen to his interview and call-in on the widely heard Howie Carr show. Reiner's got the talking points - the experienced leader, 11 years in a row of balanced budgets, delivered healthcare results - down pat for the independents listening. This guy, the future Gov in CA, is good. Two FM radio stations play different re-mixes of Dean's now historical Rebel Caucus Yell at the Val-Air. One of them, Dean-n-Roses, is lame and subsiding... Dean's name ID is through the roof nationwide now. How often does a candidate get free FM coverage? Let's remember, politics works in cycles, and name ID is the only thing that seems to stick anymore.
Within the Dean NH field operations, there's not that sense of disarray that was present in Iowa. It's a whole different field operation model, which was recognized months ago as superior to Iowa's model. There is the same sense of needing a comeback here, but it seems more viable, and less grasping. Having arrived the day after the Judy Dean coverage, perhaps I missed the panic in the air until it subsided. Things had become unhinged, Dean lost for the first time in his elective life; but Dean's position for the late comeback has a certain historical pull here in New Hampshire. There remain possibilities.
Update: Blogging of the President: 2004, is going to have a live radio special tomorrow (Sunday at 9-11 PM). Among the guests will be Atrios, Andrew Sullivan... and others, hoping to parlay something about what this all means!