The cognitive earthquake required to get a Republican to vote for Kerry is substantial, yet the ground is shifting. Why?
I have been irresponsible enough to predict a landslide for Kerry, two months ago, and am encouraged to see that I may actually see this coming through. (And then my acquaintances won't consider me a complete idiot, as some did when I suggested this possibility). The latest Zogby is most encouraging.
The cognitive earthquake required to get a Republican to vote for Kerry is substantial, yet the ground is shifting. Why?
I have been irresponsible enough to predict a landslide for Kerry, two months ago, and am encouraged to see that I may actually see this coming through. (And then my acquaintances won't consider me a complete idiot, as some did when I suggested this possibility). The latest Zogby is most encouraging.
I predicated my guesstimate on the fact that this administration has been found out; that Iraq has been proven to be a war of choice, without foundation in any serious threat against the USA; on the fact that the economy isn't performing in a way that is noticeably positive to ordinary wage earners; and on the fact that people are slowly recognizing that the man they picked for president in 2000 (well, almost picked) is an idiot.
The latter point is the hardest one for 2000 Bush-voters to accept.
Casting your vote in an election for president is supposed to reflect your beliefs, your connection to society, your judgment and your character. Realizing that you flunked the test, by falling for a candidate who was delusional rather than visionary, is a blow to your ego - it takes time to recover, you may just call a time out, and switching your vote requires that you see you are not alone in doing so.
More and more Americans see that it has become legitimate to want Bush out and gone, together with those "behind" him they actually see as running things.
This is where Bush's leaving things to the people around him works against him, and creates an opportunity for the Democrats, as it makes it easier for people who voted for him last time to NOT vote for Bush this time around. They see him as a tool, someone who has been manipulated as they were, and are absolved by voting against his "crew" rather than against the man they chose in 2000.
Please follow this logic, as we are dealing with the pillars of an individual's identity. The rabid arguments you are having with workmates and close family who do not want to "get it" are not due to an inability to see that Bush is incompetent. They resist because admitting that Bush is incompetent means that they are incompetent, that their judgment is faulty, their criteria are flawed.
Therefore, to effectively swing the vote and provide justification for Republicans to not just sit this one out, but actually switch, the Democrats must point a finger at the people who weren't elected president, but who have used this president to further their agendas on Iraq, energy, the environment, corporate benefits, etc.
This will make it easier to switch, as you are voting to rid the house of manipulators, rather than admitting your own faulty judgment in choosing Bush over Gore in 2000.
To a great extent, this would also nudge those who say you cannot switch executives during a war into seeking a broader picture.
It's still not a vote-for-Kerry win that the Dem's are looking at; but it's no longer a vote-against-Bush win, which is harder for the Republicans to go along with.
Kerry & Co. broke some serious ground towards changing perceptions with a well run convention that directed itself at the expanding swing voters (as well as aiming to give comfort to traditional Republicans who have decided against Bush but reluctant to give Kerry their vote).
Still, the general out-take from the convention was an attack on Bush (Clinton's wisdom and strength line, or Sharpton's diatribe) - though Kerry touched upon what's needed when he ran down the list of what his Secretaries would do, as compared to what Bush has allowed his to get away with.
Mine that, and you have got a landslide of momentous proportions poised to flow.