There is much anticipation of the imminent, deserved indictments. I am excited and my champagne is well chilled (well, actually it's iced tea). My circle of friends is itching for a party next weekend. Hopes are high.
But I think it is worth discussing the other side of this game: Bush is now facing a corner that literally threatens his remaining term AND the GOP generally. The tendrils of an indictment will lead directly to inquiries for how involved and knowledgable Bush was personally. The scale of the corruption threat to the GOP movement is hard to overstate.
This means Bush is going to treat Fitzgerald's indictments for what they are: a direct and imminent threat to his power. A threat demanding a response.
In short, I believe we are likely to have a very dangerous, unprecedented week and beyond of political hardball ahead of us.
Further on the flip.
We liberals place a lot of faith in the Law. Especially as a check on abuse of power. Indeed, most Liberals basically believe that society works best when it works according to a virtuous rule book. That no one is above the Law is a deeply Liberal ideal.
To put it mildly, if broadly, this is not how modern power-hungry Republicans think. They only respect laws that are on their side and will do their damnedest to fight, change and not enforce laws that weaken their power. This must be expected and counted on. And that means that the rule book is likely to go out the window. Hard.
Let's be clear: Bush is not just going to let something like the law ruin his presidency. A push back will happen. I would bet money that precisely this is being discussed at Camp Davis at this very moment: how to stop the Wheels of Justice.
So what will the strategy be to defend the White House in the face of a cataclysm? This is the discussion I would like to invite.
Strategy #1: Attack the Prosecutor
While this is clearly Tom DeLay's strategy in Texas, it's not going to work with Fitzgerald and an investigation that is on the verge of indictments. If Fitz turns in charges, they will be bulletproof and containing serious evidence. The time to spike the investigation was long ago--and Ashcroft gave it a try, but even then saw that this rotting elephant was too big to hide.
Direct intimidation won't work. And even if Fitz turns up mysteriously dead, the prosection will continue by other hands. There is no way to stop this kind of train at this stage of the game.
Sure, there will be attempts at media spin. But attacking prosecutors as overzealous only works when the evidence is weak. When the evidence is strong, this simply doesn't work.
This strategy is not audacious enough and is unlikely to be successful in any meaningful way. They will need bigger weapons.
Strategy #2: Scapegoat and Pardon
This is already beginning. They are willing to throw Libby to the wolves. He will take the blame in a narrative that says he was overzealous and made a mistake of judgment. But basically acting on his own initiative. Libby has not been defined in the public mind much yet, so there is a lot of room to create his image as a misguided patriot.
Even if it's just Libby and Rove indicted, it could be manageable, or at least survivable. Enough lies could be told to a complacent media that the rot could be contained. And, of course, pardons and riches will be imminent for Libby and Rove in reward for falling on their swords..
But a problem arises if there are multiple indictments. If it becomes clear that a the Plame conspiracy was widespread and that a CIA network of WMD spies was destroyed as a result, then the picture changes. At that point, a scapegoat strategy becomes less possible. Again, bigger weapons would be needed to stop the damage.
Strategy #3: Executive Privelege and Constitutional Crisis
People have argued that Fitzgerald cannot be fired because his commission is essentially identical to that of an independent counsel. I have my doubts about this, not because it isn't technically arguable: but because Republicans don't respect laws and unfriendly prosecutors. The entire point of this diary is that Bush will not be playing by any rules but survival. Audacity is a safe prediction.
I think it is quite conceivable that Bush will sign a pre-emptive blanket pardon of some kind on "National Security" grounds. All documents in the inquiry will become classified. It would be unprecedented and an abuse of power--but remember, Bush considers himself a Commander in Chief during a time of War. In his view, that means he can do anything. Period.
Who would stop him? Congress? Doubtful. A court? If taken to the extreme, no court could force the Executive branch to do anything. Too crazy a thought? If Bush sees the choice as his own political survival or provoking a separation-of-powers crisis, what do think he will do?
A further advantage of this is that it will give his pseudo-patriot supporters a lie to rally around. Primary result: starve the public of further information. This is the crucial, overriding goal.
I give this a pretty high probablity of occuring.
Strategy #4: New War for Distraction
The most dramatic possiblity would be the above possibility in conjunction with a new War declared on Syria. This would create the kind of mess, chaos and knee-jerk patriotism that might be necessary to make the country, particularly the major media, to stop asking questions.
It would be the most risky, to say nothing of evil. But this in combination with convenient Presidential decrees shutting down the indictments seems almost like the only strategy that might have a chance to reverse a checkmate. Bush, at root, is an irresponsible gambler and con man and warmonger.
Final Jeopardy
I can imagine scenarios where all of the above occur in succession, and it still doesn't stop the rot--actually the political crisis only amplifies. What then? How does BushCo get people to stop asking questions?
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I am very interested in what the many smart minds on dKos think are strategies the White House is considering. Extra credit for creative and cynical thinking.