The results of the latest
Field Poll (for propositions 73, 78, and 79) have been diaried by
ortcutt. Yesterday's Field Poll
release covered the Arnold initiatives (74-77) and proposition 80, and was diaried by
CADem.
The Field Poll is known for being the gold standard in California for its accuracy. Based on the Field Poll's published track record, I have done some spreadsheet tricks to calculate the probability each proposition will pass and what the median expected outcome is. My analysis for propositions 74-77 and 80 was diaried yesterday. Below is my analysis for the three propositions in today's Field Poll release, plus a repeat of yesterday's projections of the remaining propositions.
All the initiatives look to be in bad shape:
73 (make life worse for teen girls in frightful circumstances): 10/25-10/30: 41% yes, 49% no
Odds of passage: 5.3%; Median expected outcome: 56.7% NO
74 (stick it to the teachers): 10/25-10/30: 44% yes, 50% no
Odds of passage: <1%; Median expected outcome: 54.6% NO
75 (screw the unions): 10/25-10/30: 40% yes, 50% no
Odds of passage: <1%; Median expected outcome: 57.7% NO
76 (make the governor an emperor): 10/25-10/30: 32% yes, 60% no
Odds of passage: 0%; Median expected outcome: 66.2% NO
77 (the only way Arnold can think of to try to get more Republicans elected): 10/25-10/30: 35% yes, 51% no
Odds of passage: 0%; Median expected outcome: 61.8% NO
78 (pharmaceutical industry backed prescription drug initiative): 10/25-10/30: 36% yes, 45% no
Odds of passage: 13.3%; Median expected outcome: 59.6% NO
79 (consumer group backed prescription drug initiative): 10/25-10/30: 37% yes, 43% no
Odds of passage: 17.3%; Median expected outcome: 58.4% NO
80 (partial electricity reregulation): 10/25-10/30: 24% yes, 48% no
Odds of passage: 2.9%; Median expected outcome: 69.6% NO
I know alot of people want 79 and 80 to pass, but having everything fail (my hope) would still be a great outcome for Democrats.
(More or less cross-posted at The Left Coaster)