In the cold harsh political calculus of Washington ones future is determined entirely by your perceived cost/benefit ratio. And by this measure, Karl Rove is sinking fast. He will have to resign soon even if not indicted. His liability and risk relative to his perceived future benefit is escalating so fast he might not even make it to next week.
It was no surprise when Howard Dean, Joe Wilson, Paul Krugman, and I called for Rove's resignation monday. But now Trent Lott and other top GOP insiders are sharpening the long knives.
Adam Entous of Reuters wrote last night
Breaking with the White House and fellow conservatives, Republican Sen. Trent Lott and the head of the Cato Institute questioned on Tuesday whether top White House adviser Karl Rove, who remains in legal jeopardy in a CIA-leak probe, should keep his policy-making job.
The viability of the Hunkerdown and Fight It Out strategy has finally been broken. Trent Lott and other leading GOP insiders are now trying to shift the White House to a new Fresh Team - Fresh Start strategy. To refocus on a positive agenda for Bush's second term.
Entous continues later
Lott of Mississippi and William Niskanen of the libertarian Cato Institute both echoed Democratic calls for a White House shake-up.
"He (Rove) has been very successful, very effective in the political arena. The question is, should he be the deputy chief of staff for policy under the current circumstances?" Lott told MSNBC's "Hardball."
"Most presidents in recent years have a political adviser in the White House. The question is, should they be, you know, making policy decisions. That's the question you've got to evaluate," the former Senate Republican leader added.
Lott went further than he did on Sunday, when he urged Bush to be on the lookout for "new blood, new energy, qualified staff."
When Trent Lott called for fresh blood last week we all thought he meant bringing in Ed Gilespie. Now, it appears, the inside joke was that it also meant Karl Rove's blood on the floor as he leaves. But Karl and Bush were both given fair warning to have Rove take the initiative himself and quitely bow out. But if Bush was unable to see that here his own best interest departs from Rove and his Staff, the GOP are now going to give him a little extra help. Rove and the rest of the WHIG insiders are to mired in a conflict of interest to realize this affects the whole GOP, and the nation, not just themselves.
Bush is struggling now between his long connection with Rove and the others and his own best interest. The White House insiders may be willing to risk taking down the whole ship with them, but the rest of the ship isn't going to go along. It's far easier to deep six Rove. And with a gradual pace, this will continue until the entire WHIG group is out including Cheney. Monday I predicted the order would be Rove, McClellan, a pause, then Card, Hadley, etc.
Then later, Cheney would discover additional health concerns and the need to spend more time with his family in an entirely "unrelated" set of developments.
But the last two days have been so dramatic I believe the optimal order has now changed, The new Perceived Maximum Relative Benefit/Cost Ratio Strategy indicates that getting Cheney out is too urgent, McClellan might have to wait his turn until later. And anyway, he is not implicated with the core WHIG group with the potentially criminal behavior. He has just damaged his relationships of "deep trust" with the White House press corp. This is ugly, painful to watch, and ineffective each day but does not entail anywhere near the potential catastrophic risk that looms over Cheney.
It's important to get Cheney out prior to calls for impeachment hearings so that Bush get's to pick the new VIP. Otherwise, the danger will be that it's order of succession. And no one wants to go there.
Niskanen, who served as a top economic adviser to former President Ronald Reagan, said, "Bush is going to have to sacrifice people who have worked with him to regain some initiative."
Niskanen said any White House shake-up should "start" with Rove because of his association with the leak case.
"He's provided good political judgment on campaigns, but not good political judgment on getting legislation through," Niskanen told Reuters.
So far, the White House has rebuffed calls for an overhaul in response to Libby's indictment. "Karl Rove continues to do his duties," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said.
When asked if Bush retained confidence in Rove, McClellan said on Monday: "People who work here at the White House have the confidence of the president."
A Republican strategist with ties to the White House said any personnel changes would be gradual to avoid the appearance that the White House was panicking.
But brace yourselves my friends. We must hope Bush, Rove, and the WHIG resist for as long as possible. Because OMG Yes, I can hear it now....
Bush will feel badly about losing his old friends. However, he has a long history of ruthlessly pursueing what he sees as his best interest. And casting aside anyone once they become a net negative.
But enter new spinmeisters (Rove not the only one. We're a dime a dozen these days.)
And we all know we can depend on Bush to heroically put aside his own personal feelings about his senior staff and V.P. for the best interest of the whole GOP, Nation, and the World.
You will cringe, but imagine hearing this new theme day after day..."The American people are tired of this negativity. The left wing democrats have stalled us out once again. It time to move on to a Fresh Start. A New Team, and The New Positive Agenda For America and the President's second term. Que "God Bless America." Then maybe Happy Days Are Hear Again."
P.S. I think I may now retract my call for Rove's resignation and start a Rove Support Group. Having him right squack in the center of the White House is the best of all possible worlds for us. It doesnt' get any better than this. Every night on the news as they show the darkened White House, we can just imagine all of these buzzards and snakes hunkered down peering out through the drapes.