This begins a short series of posts discussing Mark Warner and the transformation of the Virginia Democratic Party, following some requests made after Kaine's victory. This part will deal with the campaign of 2001. The next part will deal with Mark Warner's term as Governor, and the final part will deal with his vision for the National party, views on Iraq, etc.
I strongly support Mark Warner for president. However, I am attempting to paint a richer picture than simply a stump for my guy in 2008. Rather, I am trying to describe how a party in disarray can turn around to effectively build a new machine over the course of 4-5 years. Regardless of your feelings on Mark Warner, I ask you to consider this as a way to regain competitive status in not just red states, but red regions of blue states and purple states.
In 2001, Virginia Democrats were suffering from what can nicely be called a crisis of confidence, and more realistically can be called the same damn apathy and frustration the National party feels today. We were staring in the face of years of watching the party become irrelevant to the supposed point of no return. Churck Robb lost his Senate seat, and there was little chance of getting it back. Hell, the only reason he had held onto it for so long was because his previous opponent was Ollie North, whom even John Warner could not support. The usual Democratic suspects would run for the same offices and always lose by an increasingly depressing margin. Jim Gilmore had been elected on a single-issue (No Car Tax) campaign that anyone with a half a brain could see was mind-bogglingly short-sighted. (Note to the world: If you can fit your entire economic plan on your campaign sign, it is not a good plan).
The General Assembly was an even more depressing figure. In 1999, the GOP finally captured what had alluded them in the entire almost 400 year history of Virginia, majorities in both houses. They
redrew the district lines, and will continue to benefit from it until the next census, at least. And the calibur of the delegates? Well, I've been told that if you can't say anything nice don't say anything at all, but the fact is I can call Bob Marshall a retroactive homophobic uber-conservative who wants to turn back the clock and ensure that college girls don't have any access to contraception whatsoever and if given the chance would make premarital sex a crime, and he would take it as a compliment.
Simultaneously, things were losing their rose-colored sheen for Virginia. The Tech bubble had just burst, and all those programmers who skipped college to work at start-up dotcoms in Ashburn were now unemployed, and didn't have a degree to fall back on. The coal industry was in shambles, and there were places in Southern Appalachia where you had two career options: Walmart or prison guard. The differences in public schools for Northern Virginia and the rest of the state varied vastly. Teacher retention was a problem. And our public universities (William and Mary, UVA, JMU, VTech, etc.), always the pride and joy of Virginia residents, were losing faculty and national rankings as money simply stopped coming. Freezes were put on all hiring of new teachers and any teacher pay raises.
Yet what could be done?
The worse the idea, the more likely the state was to implement it. And there was no balance. In a state that is home to the NRA, Jerry Falwell, and Pat Robertson, god, guns, and gays was unbeatable. The only thing we had going for us was the same thing that had beaten us before: Jim Gilmore's tax plan was a really really bad idea. But, we had already lost on that, so it wasn't exactly something to bank on, especially since Virginians vote tax cuts, even if it's shooting yourself in the foot to do so......
Sound familiar?
And in comes Mark Warner. Warner had established himself earlier by holding Sen. John Warner within 5% of the vote, his smallest margin of victory ever (Bumper sticker read: Vote for Mark, not John). If we were ever going to win, he was our best shot, and the Gilmore backlash was our best environment. Problem was, we didn't know how to win outside of Nova and Richmond, and the cities could not carry the state, especially considering the rich belt of upper middle class Republicans in Fairfax and Loudoun Counties.
Warner, of Nextel fame, had invested in Southewest Virginia healthcare centers and promoting technology along the interstate 81 corridor in order to promote business in the rural regions of the state.
His idea was that you shouldn't have to leave your local small-town community in order to be successful in the Information Age. You shouldn't have to move to the city to get a good job. Your kids shouldn't have to leave in order to achieve things. You should be able to live comfortably in Pulaski. This idea resonated, and despite what you're bound to hear about sponsoring a NASCAR and hiring a bluegrass band (both true), it was that fundamental vision that resonated.
It was that undercurrent of resentment rural communities have that they're being left behind as the libereal urbanites create this fancy world that rural folk want to participate in, but without losing the outdoors and open air that they cherish. The argument that Virginia is not successful if only Northern Virginia is prospering, if only the white collar is advancing. You should never have to choose between community and opportunity.
Sound familiar?
And that's right where Sportsmen for Warner came in. Now, I could go on for hours over the Sportsmen for Warner concept, because I think it's one of those brilliant alliances that noone had thought of yet, but makes perfect sense (
this article sums it up well). In short, it's a recognition that hunters and fishers love the outdoors and nature just as much as environmentalists, and provided you won't take away their guns, are passionate about protecting it. They also don't
need you to be a rural, backwoods guy provided you are genuine and truly take the time, understand where they are coming from, and listen. They can spot someone doing it just for votes a mile away. But if you pay your dues, they will give you a shot.
These voters are voters who very well might never have voted for a Democrat, or at least not since LBJ. Maybe, long ago, they were in a coalminer's union, but that was long ago. These voters have been voting on their faith and social issues because they've been given little else. They probably share more in common with Democrats in regard to the economy and Republicans on social issues, and have long felt that Democrats had abandoned economic populism for free trade or for focusing on social issues. As a result, even if only half of the time, that was half more than they agreed with Democrats, so they voted Republican, and it became so ingrained in them that Democrat was synonymous with "bad person." But if you remind them why they're grand-daddy voted Democratic, and listen to what they care about, and don't abandon them after you get elected, you will earn their respect and affiliation. And once they decide on a party, they are very difficult to change back.
You don't need to take every rural community to win this way, just move it back to pink from red. And then slowly, results and good governance will do the rest. As an example, Tim Kaine did not run a "Sportsmen" campaign. It wouldn't have worked. He'd look more like John Kerry than Mark Warner going out hunting on a photo-op. He ran a traditional liberal campaign, but because that trust had been earned, a lot of people who had either given Warner the benefit of the doubt in 2001, or were impressed with Warner after the fact (and there are many of those), made counties pink. Look at
this map of Tuesday's election and look at the salmon colored counties. Many of those used to be bright red. And it makes all the difference.
Warner didn't win by all that much, although it would have been by more had his election not been two months after 9/11, but it changed the state party a hell of a lot, which I will go further into in later parts. And it wasn't all NASCAR. It was economics and hope. It swatted away god, guns, and gays by harping on populism, economics, and the chance to run a government in the black. Social issues were eclipsed by the message. It was not about the base. It was about society, and society's responsibility to govern itself responsibly. On the individual's responsibility to step up to the plate and provide for the state. And after that, Virginia Democrats felt like winners again, and knew how to sell a message. It was quick, and the party has been playing smarter, better, and with less advantages ever since.
This election was the beginning, and it was followed up by the kind of leadership I know I personally have been starved for on a national level. I'll discuss that in Part II.