I have been trying to riddle out two peculiarities that got reported in the last day or so. Both involve Iowa contenders going out of state, at a time when you would think they'd be on the ground campaigning pedal to the metal:
- Dean going to GA for the Carter event.
- Gephardt going to NYC for fund raisers.
The Dean-Carter story got beat to death yesterday. I did some of the beating, and got a bruise or two myself in the rhubarb. But Jimmy himself has confirmed that he won't endorse. It's just not plausible that he'd fib about it. A wink 'n' nod isn't quite a real endorsement, so the value of this seems modest - how is it worth a day off the campaign trail?
The Gephardt fund raisers are even odder. He may be running on fumes, but he can't even make it to Monday without pulling waaaay off the Iowa highway to tank up? That doesn't compute.
So what gives?
All I can figure is that - whatever the Zogby tracker says - both Dean and Gephardt have reached the same conclusion: that as of how, the Gepper is on track to win.
Okay, you ask, how does that conclusion follow?
Dean is struggling right now against the Mad Dean theme. Doesn't matter if its cynical crappola, probably traceable back ultimately to the RNC. (Dean's great strength is his fire; take that away and he's singing soprano in the choir.)
Doesn't matter. It's out there, and right now it's dragging on Dean in Iowa, costing him a few key points that are leaking over to Kerry. He badly needs a bit of extra voltage - and he needs Iowa caucusgoers to have a more positive, sunny image of him on Monday.
Jimmy Carter is Mister Good Guy of the Democratic Party. His whole image is rooted in a deeply rooted perception of his fundamental decency. Jimmy would not be standing with that smile on his face next to a mean guy. That smile and that aura are worth a day for Dean.
Okay, now Gephardt. He believes he's got Iowa in the bag ... but he is running on fumes. Winning Iowa keeps him in it, but how does he go the distance?
Morever, he knows that after he thumps Dean in Iowa, there's a very good chance that Clark will land a roundhouse on Dean in NH. That sends Clark toward Feb 3 with huge mo, and he's already got huge money. So Gep has to tank up now, in order to build up on his own comeback-kid momentum.
If you're gonna bash this theory, you gotta offer alternative explanations of these out-of-Iowa experiences.
-- Rick Robinson