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Emmanuel Todd interview on the 'French riots' (full translation)

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Sun Nov 13, 2005 at 11:37:27 AM PDT

Emmanuel Todd, the man who predicted the end of the Soviet Empire before anyone else (and for the right reasons), whose ideas on the French "social fracture" 10 years ago were used by Chirac in his successful campaign to be elected president (and then ignored when he was in power), and whose book After the Empire : The Breakdown of the American Order is a must read to understand the Bush White House, has been interviewed in Le Monde about the current events in the French banlieues. It is a fascinating read, and I provide below a full translation.
First, as an appetiser, the summary of his "After the Empire" book on Amazon:


A bestseller in Europe, this provocative but erratic manifesto stands Euro-anxiety about American hegemony on its head. French demographer Todd (The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere) cites Paul Kennedy's theory of imperial overstretch and Michael Lind's notion of the American overclass to paint America as a "predatory" but weakening empire, its unilateralism and militarism a sign of frailty, not strength. Misguided free trade policies, he contends, have hollowed out America's industrial base and decimated its working and middle classes, polarizing the country into a society of plutocrats and plebeians. Dependent on imports, America has degenerated into a parasitic, Keynesian consumer-of-last-resort, injecting demand into the world economy while producing nothing of value. To mask its decline, America pursues a foreign policy of "theatrical micromilitarism," picking fights with helpless Third World countries like Iraq to convince the world's real power centers-Europe, Japan and Russia-of its military prowess and validate its spurious image as global policeman.

And now the interview. Translation - and all associated errors mine.


Q - In 1995, you analyzed the "social fracture", an  expression which then presidential candidate Jacques Chirac used successfully for his presidential campaign.  Ten years afterwards, where are we?  

A- The expression "social fracture" is not mine.  It is from Marcel Gauchet, but it is invariably attributed to me.  I've given up fighting that.  In a note of the Saint-Simon Foundation, at the time, I had described the reappearance of the popular forces after the collapse of Communism, by noting that blue collar workers and employees still accounted for 50 % of the population.  From census information, it appeared that the idea from Giscard d'Estaing that "two French out of three" were in the middle class was not true.  Between two elections, the political community is regularly blinded by the opinion polls, which reflect the biases of the upper classes.  That gave us the polls which showed that Balladur would be elected, or that the referendums on Europe would pass easily...  It is only during the election campaigns that the popular classes weke up gradually.  Each one then believes to see a change of mood of the electorate, when it is only, in fact, the emergence of the popular classes:  the opinion of the people who do not have an opinion on everything constantly.  For ten years, poll after poll, the alienation of the working and popular classes with regard to the leading class in the broad sense has only grown:  the results of the last referendum of May 29 on Europe demonstrated it again.

Q - Are violences in the French suburbs a consequence of this alienation?

A - In recent years, the French political life has been a succession of catastrophes which have left the foreign observers increasingly amazed and agog.  The first catastrophe is the presidential vote in 2002, with a first round which brings the extreme right in the top two candidates and a second round where Jacques Chirac is elected with more than 80 % of the votes.  The second catastrophe, if one places oneself from the point of view of the leading classes,  is the referendum on Europe.  For months, all the commentators were convinced that yes was going to pass and, at the end, the "non" won easily.  Shock, surprise, despair.  The leading classes just start to fall asleep again, while trying to convince themselves that the situation is become again stable, when occurs the third catastrophe:  this crisis of the suburbs (which no one  knows yet if it is finished).  And, each time, the delegitimation of the leading classes becomes more obvious.

Q - Is the scenario of the catastrophes of which you speak always the same one?

Not, they do not involve the same groups.  The Le Pen vote in 2002 is the old French popular vote which forms the heart of vote FN.  With the referendum, you see the involvement of part of the middle class, that  linked to the public sector, which I would call the  petite bourgeoisie d'Etat (lower State bourgeoisie).  The third catastrophe, that of the suburbs, bring into play other actors:  young people from immigration.  Those are still separated from the French popular classes for historical and cultural reasons, although they belong to the same world in social and economic terms.  The three groups which I have just described have in common a deep antagonism with regard to the system and the upper classes.

On the other hand, one does not see any solidarity between them.  For example, I remain persuaded that the two groups which produced the "non" victory in the referendum (the popular classes and the petite bourgeoisie d'Etat) have deeply divergent interests.  The first are in rage against the statu quo, which means, for them, unemployment and falling wages in a world open to competition;  the second wishes the maintenance of the statu quo, which leaves it sheltered from free trade and with a guarantee of employment.

Q - Is there an antagonism between these two categories and the third, that of the young people from immigration who burn cars?

A - It is very worrying to see burning cars, buses and nursery schools.  And the things can still degenerate.  Despite everything, I lean for a rather optimistic interpretation of what happened.  I do not say this about the situation of the suburbs, which is by places disastrous, with rates of unemployment of 35 % amongst heads of family and of racial discriminations fro recruitment.  But I do not see anything in the events themselves which radically separates the children of immigrants from the remainder of French society.  I see the opposite exactly there.  I interpret the events like a refusal of marginalisation.  All of that could not have occurred if these children of immigrants had not interiorized some of the fundamental values of French society, of which, for example, the couple freedom-equality.  As regards other actors, the government-managed police, the local authorities, the nonimmigrant population, I saw exasperation perhaps, but not rejection in block.

Q - Do you want to say that the young people revolt because they integrated the republican model and feel that it does not function?  

A - Exactly.  I read their revolt like an aspiration for equality.  French society is facing a rise in inequality which touches the whole of the developed world.  Rather well tolerated in the United States, where its only political effect is the success of neoconservatism, this planetary rise of inequality is resisted more in France.  It comes down to some deep anthropological values which were in the heart of the country family structures of the Parisian agricultural basin.  This underlying backbone of equality, which goes back to the XVIIth century, or even earlier, is not found at all in the English farming community, where the transmission of land was much more unequal.

When one is in the upper classes, one can be made do with the rise of the inequality, even if one is against it in principle:  it is not too uncomfortable.  On the other hand, the popular classes or the middle class live it very badly.  That gives the Le Pen vote, which has a real component of equality, with a capacity to  saying "fuck you" to the elites, and a component of inequality, with the idea of finding a scapegoat lower than oneself (the immigrant).  As regards the kids of suburbs with African or North African origin, they are not at all in the same situation as the Pakistanis of England or the Turks of Germany.  For instance, the rates of mixed marriages at the beginning of the years 1990 was already around 25 % for Algerian girls in France, whereas it was 1 % for the girls of Turkish origin in Germany and lower for those of Pakistani origins.  The simple racial mix of the gangs of young people in France is impossible to conceive in Anglo-Saxon countries.  Note that I do not want either to give an idyllic vision of a France of 1789 which would be in play, with the postulate of the universal man, this dream of the républicains ( ed - i.e the French secular model)

Q -  What do you think of the reaction of the Republic vis-a-vis the riots?

A - I was not against the idea of a curfew in view of really worrying violences.  As a whole, I find that the reaction of the police force and the government was very moderate.  In May 1968, one shouted "CRS- SS ", but the police force showed exceptional control.  At the time, the media of left said that the police had not used force because the middle-class did not want to kill its own children.  Today, in the suburbs, one saw that the Republic did not shoot either at the children of immigrants.  Those were not the only ones concerned.  There was an effect of capillarity between all youths, even in the most remote French province.  The first death, only indirectly linked with the events, brought an immediate drop in the level of violence.  The foreign press which makes fun of France should contemplate this example.

I find of particular stupidity for Nicolas Sarkozy to insist on the foreign character of the young people involved in violences.  I am convinced on the contrary that the phenomenon is typically French.  The racially mixed young people of the Seine Saint-Denis fall under a tradition of social uprising which is frequent in French history.  Their violence represents also the disintegration of the African and North African  families in contact with the French values of equality.  In particular equality of the women.  Despite inevitable fits and starts, the second and the third generation of immigrants are integrated relatively well within the French popular classes, and some join the middle class or higher.

If I am not optimistic from the economic point of view as I think that the globalisation will weigh more and more on employment and wages, I am optimistic in the field of the political values.  In terms of result, after these two weeks of riots, which does one see?  These marginalized people, introduced like outsiders to society,  succeeded through a movement which became national to have an impact in the political debate, obtaining changes in the policies of a right wing government (by forcing it to restore the subsidies to associations in the banlieues).  And all that in reaction to a verbal provocation of the Minister of Interior which will undoubtedly realize that they have broken his career.  One can be more marginal!

A lot of this is compatible, I think, with what I wrote last week (Paris 'riots': My aunt's building burned yesterday night) in that he focuses on economic and social factors and is not so pessimistic on the integration of these immigrants' kids into French society. It is also in line with my article from a few months back in the WSJ (Can Do France), which underlined the real strengths of the French economy while noting that it appeared to be failing because it was betraying some of the principles (i.e. equality provided by the State) that many citizens crave. The idea that the lower classes in France do not tolerate the growing unequality and feel betrayed by the elites which have stealthily encouraged such global trends inside France is a very important one. His description of the different subgroups that have been protesting is also essential and shows that tailoring a political message to reach all of them is not going to be easy, but one item stands out.

Globalisation reaps unequality.

Countries that appear the most successful today are either those that embrace and promote such inequality (in the name of efficiency - "a rising tide lifts all boats"), or those that fight it really (the Scandinavian model with its all-inclusive social net). Doing some half baked reforms does not work, or puts too much of the burden on parts of the underclass (those that have no access to any historical privilèges or that have to face insidious racism in addition), especially at a time when "refome" has become short hand for lower wages and fewer rights for workers. In France, only a few pay the "reforms", but all feel threatened, and this is not so well tolerated, as history shows. Thus the need to change the way the French elites have adapted (too well, as far as they were concerned, forgetting the rest of the country behind them), and the political party that will express this best could win in a landslide. Conversely, if it is ignored, it will feed the appeal of the destructive national-populists and could lead to more unrest

This is also relevant in the USA, I think. Inequality has not become yet a hot political topic, in part because it has not been identified as such, and because it has been historically tolerated as the counterparty to better opportunities. The political force that makes the case today that the "opportunity" side of the balance is no longer available to many could have a head start to work on the "inequality" concept, and bring in a political change favorable to the left.

Tags: Emmanuel Todd, inequality, France, Paris, Paris riots, integration, immigration (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Permalink | 14 comments

  •  on the burning of cars (none / 0)

    we come to understand that the destruction of  automobiles has been going on for sometime; not a recent phenomenon.

    bad bad bad

    if you have a household and one of the people in the household continually destroys something in the household and you continue to allow it to happen, you are as guilty, aiding abetting.

    if your child destroys and is reckless and you do not take firm measures to stop the destructive acts, you are guilty.

    and you probably do not care about your child.  that's what they think, that's what i would think looking on.

    shame

    it's like the much less destructive vandalizm of graffitti, if you don't remove it SOON, it spreads.

    to tolerate intolerable or unacceptable behavior is not a sign of tolerance.  more likely, a sign of lack of imagination.

    "Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and right doing, there is a field. I'll meet you there." Rumi

    by sudiepatou on Sun Nov 13, 2005 at 11:58:16 AM PDT

    •  That's been the idea (none / 0)

      behind Sarkozy's reviving of the "zero tolerance" policing made famous in NY. Except that it was not applied that way. It was "zero tolerance" for a few hours, in front of the TV cameras, humiliating the kids that (some of) the police were trying to otherwise engage.

      And in some places, as the trafficking is the only thing that brings in income, the local uathorities have turned a blind eye as the underlying economic issues were not addressed.

  •  In the US opportunity for the underclass is (none / 0)

    indeed a fiction. But despite this being easy to see, most Americans are blind to it. And many of those who do see it are thankful for it.

    I wonder if "the political force that makes the case today that the "opportunity" side of the balance is no longer available to many" could in fact "have a head start to work on the "inequality" concept, and bring in a political change favorable to the left".  In other words, is this an issue that will resonate with any but the disaffected and a few leftists in the US? Or have we become so selfish a society in which equality is no longer perceived as desirable?

    The ideals in France, and in most of Europe may be higher. Europe has shown a willingness to work for the `social good'. But in our country, that is foul language.

    Do not feel safe. The poet remembers.
    Czeslaw Milosz

    by Chris Kulczycki on Sun Nov 13, 2005 at 12:05:22 PM PDT

    •  I don't see (none / 1)

      how to sell lefty programmes easily other than via the obvious populism of "they are so much richer, let's get them to share a bit" - which is now obvious to everybody, and can be attractive to ebough if there is a notion of unfairness.

      The better actual economic results of Democrats in power do not seem to register on their own, so skewed is the economic debate.

      •  There is no argument to the logic of your (none / 0)

        statements. And the course you suggest is a good one. I simply question whether we have fallen down the rabbit hole were logic no longer applies. Are the values on this side of the pond so bankrupt that Americans no longer see the benefits of equality? Do they all aspire to be rich and pay no taxes? Do they feel the financially successful are so superior and admirable that they are above the burdens of the rest? I am, of course, being a bit facetious, but only a bit.

        Do not feel safe. The poet remembers.
        Czeslaw Milosz

        by Chris Kulczycki on Sun Nov 13, 2005 at 12:57:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  As Todd states, it's a worldwide trend (none / 0)

          the pair efficiency/inequality has been on the upswing for the past 25 years, and so far, the public discourse is fed with the "efficiency" bit, which makes it fairly easy to dismiss the rest;

          Discourse should therefore follow two paths:

          • contest the efficiency bit - that a lot of it is a bubble-generated illusion, and that the real situation of many people is not really improving

          • making the unequality bit more visible, by focusing on how the poor are faring. NOLA, the healthcare situation, hell, even the French riots can be used as arguments that we are letting too many people on the wayside and that this carries dangers of its own for the "haves", beyond simple decency arguments.
  •  Deligitimization of the leading Class (none / 0)

    OH YEAH! hasn't the argument of the right against social legislation and bus. regs. been Individual Responsibility? Allow us to rape and exploit the Earth unfettered and our fabulous faith based social model will adress injustice?
    Each individual business man/corporation will NATURALLY contribute a portion of his earnings to charity. A rising tide lifts all boats?

    Some folks can't afford to fix the holes in our boats that your unfair,rigged system keeps shooting below our waterline. Our dories are being bailed furiously by our cold and hungry families while our tax dollars (and Francs) pay to repair your yacht.

    I still haven't got the smell off from being trickled down on in the 80's. A Kossak sig line (prphrs) The four boxes of Democracy; soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. I was glad to see reference to 1789. Hmm, where'd I put that whetstone?

    ps Jerome, I'm sure the car dealers are happy, how are the auto insurers feeling about the latest Paris fashion?

  •  Are the protesters "really" French? (none / 0)

    "I find of particular stupidity for Nicolas Sarkozy to insist on the foreign character of the young people involved in violence.  I am convinced on the contrary that the phenomenon is typically French."

    I heard a French intellectual (I  don't think it was Todd) on BBC radio who sounded a similar meme on the riots. He said that in France, it is common to set cars on fire at night; ergo, the rioters, by burning cars, are behaving in a way that is "typically French." There seems to be a move in France to conflate the behavior of the rioters with ordinary hooliganism. But Sarkozy refuses to buy into that. As the child of a Hungarian immigrant, isn't Sarkozy a bit of a "foreign character" himself?

  •  What an extraordinarily complex message..... (none / 0)

    ....these rioters wish to send! I am not sure that will fit on a sign, or even if they are carrying signs. Globalization of corporate power is an extraordinary danger. The WTO rioters were right, although I wasn't listening very closely at the time: these corporations wish to create a globe-spanning shadow government that will trump individual governments, and ideas of democracy and equality of opportunity.

    Say what you will about America (and I have), but opportunities for mobility are greater here than they are in France, including for immigrants and minorities.

    I have difficulty ascertaining what is really going on in France, but wish to note the very French tendency to intellecualize everything. This is a refreshing change from coarse American discourse, or what passes for it. And yet, I think sometimes it misses the point. I need to read more about this to formulate a final opinion, but here are my impressions and opinions so far:

    • No one knows exactly why these people are rioting.
    • If they have a message, it is so convoluted and unclear, that it is not worthy of recognition. Riot for a reason, and make sure that reason is known.
    • France is xenophobic. Always has been. It is also a "terre d'asile" where people who are exiled elsewhere are officially welcomed. This "welcome mat" has always been at odds with France's underlying xenophobia. Tourists notice it when they travel to Paris and get an unfriendly reception from waiters, ticket-takers and all. Without tourists, the French econonmy would suffer. Still, they are regarded as a necessary evil.
    • The French DEMAND, nay, insist, that if you live in France you MUST assimilate. I was once refused an item in a market because I mispronounced it, not because they didn't have any. The refusal was brusque. I talked to a French friend who corrected my pronunciation which was recognizable, but just slightly off. I went back to the market, asked the same person who said "But of course, it's right here -- how much would you like?" In America we think it is simply lovely when people speak our language sloppily. Not so, the French. Now, these second generation immigrants obviously have no problems in this regard, however, they are trying to change France, rather than letting France change them. Anyone who has lived in France knows that that is a losing battle. Although this intense demand for assimilation seems Anti-American, it has enable France to keep a strong cultural identity despite globalism, and the influence of American culture. They should be applauded for their tenacity in this regard.
    • There is a perceived problem in Republican Democracies regarding Islam. There may be a perception that Muslims immigrants within these countries do not wish democracy well, and that religion, and not secular government comes first for them, and that this view should have representation in the democracy. Of course, that is an impossible conundrum -- if true, then certain Muslims wish to sow the seeds of democracies own destruction, in favor of a religion-based society. As Americans, we should be sympathetic and understanding of any resistance to letting any religion dominate or dictate to the state.
    • These people should never have been ghettoized, anymore than people in public housing projects in New Orleans were ghettoized. If the democracy wishes assimilation, it should avoid actively creating great concentrations of people (black, white, Muslim, jewish, gay) of a certain cast.
    • The rioters's message is too convoluted, and the violence is hurting innocent people and creating a sense that France is not a country of peace. It is. The riots should be stopped through all reasonable means and a dialog opened to see if the rioters have anything to say, or not.

    If you hate government, don't run for office.

    by Bensdad on Sun Nov 13, 2005 at 01:34:12 PM PDT

    •  Manners (none / 0)

      Tourists notice it when they travel to Paris and get an unfriendly reception from waiters, ticket-takers and all. Without tourists, the French econonmy would suffer. Still, they are regarded as a necessary evil.

      Honestly, this is nothing personal at tourists, not even American ones. Other French would tell you Parisians are snotty in general.

      The French DEMAND, nay, insist, that if you live in France you MUST assimilate. I was once refused an item in a market because I mispronounced it, not because they didn't have any. The refusal was brusque.

      I had the same pronunciation problems in the US where it seemed people didn't want to make the effort to try and understand what I was saying. I was a bit surprised and hurt. A British friend once told me she had to use an American accent to be understood when in the US (and her English accent wasn't strong). I would say you sadly happened to fall on a person in bad day.

Permalink | 14 comments