Do I have your attention yet?
If so, good.
Because this is going to be a long diary in four parts
Part #1 is the formula ratings for Republican incumbents and open seats (in seperate listings)
Part #2 are the Republican-held districts that John Kerry won in 2004.
Part #3 is the districts that are within our reach.
Part #4 are the incumbents who were carried in on Bush's coattails.
Part #5 is my opinion on how and why we must hit a lot of districts hard (and also more on Ohio)
Are you ready? If so, then keep reading. (If not, prepare yourself accordingly)
Part 1
The formula goes as follows
(Incumbent's percentage) times (Bush's percentage in the district)
The following districts will not have a formula rating, but will get separate commentary as part of part 1:
All the Republican-held Georgia districts (due to redistricting), OH-2, and CA-48 (due to the impending special election)
And no, I do not have Democrats listed on this.
First off, the incumbent listing, for the 75 Republicans running in 2006 who scored the lowest on the formula (unopposed Republicans are in bold and this is not a list of 'easiest to hardest', it's an unscientific formula)
- Rob Simmons (54%/CT-2)
- Chris Shays (52%/CT-4)
- Jim Gerlach (51%/PA-6)
- Dave Reichert (52%/WA-8)
- Jim Leach (59%/IA-2)
- Heather Wilson (54%/NM-1)
- Mike Fitzpatrick (55%/PA-8)
- Sherwood Boehlert (57%/NY-24)
- Jon Porter (54%/NV-3)
- Curt Weldon (59%/PA-7)
- Charles Bass (61%/NH-2)
- Randy Kuhl (51%/NY-29)
- Charles Dent (59%/PA-15)
- Mike Sodrel (49%/IN-8)
- Anne Northup (60%/KY-3)
- Jon Knollenberg (58%/MI-9)
- Nancy Johnson (60%/CT-5)
- Marilyn Musgrave (51%/CO-4)
- Clay Shaw (63%/FL-22)
- David Dreier (54%/CA-26)
- Thad McCotter (57%/MI-11)
- Deborah Pryce (60%/OH-15)
- Steve Chabot (60%/OH-1)
- Robin Hayes (55%/NC-8)
- Mark Kirk (64%/IL-10)
- Tom Davis (60%/VA-11)
- Chris Chocola (54%/IN-2)
- John Kline (56%/MN-2)
- Gil Gutknecht (60%/MN-1)
- Tom Latham (61%/IA-4)
- Jack Reynonds (56%/NY-26)
- Charles Taylor (55%/NC-11)
- Jerry Weller (59%/IL-11)
- Pat Tiberi (62%/OH-12)
- Mike Castle (69%/DE-AL)
- Joe Schwarz (58%/MI-7)
- Phil English (60%/PA-3)
- Thelma Drake (55%/VA-2)
- Jim Kolbe (60%/AZ-8)
- J. D. Hayworth (59%/AZ-5)
- Pete Sessions (54%/TX-32)
- Jeb Bradley (63%/NH-1)
- Vito Fossella (59%/NY-13)
- Jim Saxton (63%/NJ-3)
- Frank LoBiando (65%/NJ-2)
- Shelly Moore Capito (57%/WV-2)
- Peter King (63%/NY-3)
- Scott Garrett (58%/NJ-5)
- John Hostettler (53%/IN-8)
- Ric Keller (61%/FL-8)
- Steven LaTourette (63%/OH-14)
- Mike Rogers (61%/MI-8)
- Charles Boustany (55%/LA-7)
- Jim Ramstad (65%/MN-3)
- Richard Pombo (61%/CA-11)
- Rick Renzi (62%/AZ-1)
- Jim Ryun (56%/KS-2)
- Mike Turner (62%/OH-3)
- Tim Murphy (63%/PA-18)
- Duke Cunningham (62%/CA-50)
- Melissa Hart (63%/PA-4)
- Jeff Fortenberry (54%/NE-1)
- Geoff Davis (54%/KY-4)
- Cathy McMorris (60%/WA-5)
- Fred Upton (65%/MI-6)
- Steve Pearce (60%/NM-2)
- Paul Ryan (65%/WI-1)
- Ted Poe (56%/TX-2)
- Illena Ros-Lehtinen (65%/FL-18)
- Frank Wolf (64%/VA-10)
- Bill Young (69%/FL-10)
- Tom DeLay (55%/TX-22)
- John Sweeney (66%/NY-20)
- Dave Camp (64%/MI-4)
- Dana Rohrabacher (62%/CA-46)
Notables lingering from 76 to 100 include Ralph Regula, Judy Biggert, Virgil Goode, Tom Tancredo, Bob Ney, Mary Bono, Rodney Alexander, Mark Foley, and Sue Kelly.
What makes someone rank high on this list
#1 - a strong Kerry showing
#2 - a strong Dem showing against them
The places not listed
Georgia: The redistricting screws up some things. I've heard numbers floating around as to the Bush percentage in new districts, but then measuring how someone did in the current district as a sign of how they would do in a new district would be pointless.
OH-2: To be honest, this is the first obvious tremor. I can't measure how Schmidt did in 2005 and compare it to how Bush did in 2004, not without making Schmidt look more vulnerable than she really is.
CA-48: Best of luck to all the Kossers who are working this campaign. It's also pretty pointless to measure how Cox did in this district since he's now the SEC chair. Although Cox did finish 6 points ahead of Bush.
And the list of open districts
- IA-1 (Nussle) is in-between Leach and Reichert
- CO-7 (Beauprez) is in-between Wilson and Fitzpatrick
- IL-6 (Hyde) is in-between Johnson and Musgrave
- MN-6 (Kennedy) is in-between Gutknecht and FL-13 (Harris)
- FL-13 (Harris) is in-between MN-6 and Latham
- CA-50 (Cunningham) is in-between Murphy and Hart
and the other districts score poorly on the formula, but don't give on them, yet. Remember, the formula does not account for open seats.
Part #2
The following Republicans had their district pick Kerry over Bush (the list goes from Kerry's best showing to his worst showing in a win):
Leach, Simmons, Castle, Nussle, Shays, Weldon, Boehlert, Kirk, Bass, Shaw, Fitzpatrick, Gerlach, Wilson, Beauprez, Reichert, James Walsh (NY-25), Northup, Johnson, and Charles Dent.
Part 3
The following Congressmen had Bush win their districts with less than 55% (55% in a head-to-head with Kerry, sorry third parties, you get no love):
Bush with 50.0 to 50.9%: Tom Davis, Deborah Pryce, Frank LoBiando, Steve Chabot, Jon Porter, Jon Knollenberg, Pat Tiberi
Bush with 51.0 to 51.9%: Jeb Bradley, Bill Young, Tom Latham, Jim Saxton, Jim Ramstad, Gil Gutknecht
Bush with 52.0 to 52.9%: John McHugh (NY-23), Peter King, Steven LaTourette, Thad McCotter
Bush with 53.0 to 53.9%: Mike Ferguson, Jim Kolbe, Phil English, Fred Upton, Henry Hyde, Jerry Weller, Paul Ryan, and John Sweeney
Bush with 54.0 to 54.9%: Ralph Regula, Rick Renzi, Mark Foley, Sue Kelly, Mike Rogers, Tim Murphy, Richard Pombo, Illena Ros-Lehtinen, J. D. Hayworth, Mike Turner, Robin Hayes, John Kline, Ric Keller, Melissa Hart, and Joe Schwarz
There's 56 Republicans between 55% and 60%, and 40 between 50% and 55%
Part 4
On Bush's coattails:
Incumbents who won with less than 56% who trailed Bush-
Mike Sodrel (won with 49% and Bush carried the district with 59%)
Jeff Fortenberry/Geoff Davis (won their first terms with 54% in districts with Bush winning 64%)
Tom DeLay (won 55% while Bush won 64%)
John Hostettler (won 53% while Bush won 62%)
Marilyn Musgrave (won 51% while Bush won 58%)
Randy Kuhl (won 50% while Bush won 57%)
Charles Boustany (won 55% while Bush won 60%, although Louisiana's screwy system messes with the data)
Pete Sessions (won 54% over an incumbent while Bush won 60%)
Random note: Both Utah Congressional Republicans ran far behind Bush, but they're in Utah, so they just won 66% and not 76%
Part 5
I know a lot of you will say "but we can't beat the moderates" and "75 is too much!"
I think those statements would be questionable.
75 is a good number. I don't expect to win all 75 (and some unlisted races could go our way) but if we just win 20% of those races, we will have 15 seats, and we'll have the House.
Going 15 for 75 is actually more likely than 15 for 20. Condensing efforts to just 20 or 25 districts will not help us regain Congress. We have to swamp them and get as many seats as possible. Look at the lists, Bush finished with under 55% in a lot of districts. Kerry won 19 Republican Districts. But I wanna win more than 19 and I think we have great potential there.
People are sick of the Republican congress. Independent voters are less likely than ever to back Republicans. Independents are the reason why a lot of moderate Republicans win.
They have to be painted as part of the problem in Washington. The voter should know that if they vote Republican, they're voting for another 2 years like 2005 and 2006. They should know that re-electing a moderate Republican won't do them much good at defeating Republican corruption.
As for Ohio, 6 out of 12 Congressional Republicans are in districts where Bush won less than 55%. We don't need redistricting to win a majority of seats in Ohio, we need candidates who will be able to spend more money. We have too many candidates who end up only spending in the five digits (like $12000) while Republican politicians spend $1M to try and swat them away. If our candidates ended up getting more money, then they would have more money to spend and a better chance of winning. It's reality. And no, I don't have thousands of dollars, unfortunately.
The fact is that the choices in 2006 are
A - A Republican Congress and 2 more years like 2005 and 2006
B - A Democratic Congress, which will hold President Bush accountable and stand up against ideas like privitizing Social Security and his war ideas.
We gotta make people realize that B is the best choice for our nation.
So, what do you all think?