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First, the non-partisan independent poll:

St. Norbert College. 10/31-11/11. MoE 5%. (No trend lines)

Doyle (D) 45
Green (R) 32

Doyle (D) 46
Walker (R) 31

Now the partisan Republican poll:

Strategic Vision (R). 11/11-13. MoE 3% (10/17-19 results)

Doyle (D) 47 (47)
Green (R) 44 (43)

Doyle (D) 46 (47)
Walker (R) 40 (39)

Bush approval ratings

Approve 29 (33)
Disapprove 62 (58)


Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Nov 16, 2005 at 05:44 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  not to be off topic, but... (none)
    Aren't you up a little early?
  •  Anybody? (none)
    Is there a good link for a list of polling outfits, partisan and bi-partisan, their record and current status and rep?
  •  Doyle,,, (4.00)
    was left a mess in this state by friggen piece of crap Tommy Thompson.  Things aren't great, budget-wise.  However, if Bush keeps tanking, I think he can hold the state.  

    "But your flag decal won't get you into heaven anymore"--Prine Pay attention Georgie - 2060+ dead Americans. Jesus Christ, make it stop already.

    by Miss Blue on Wed Nov 16, 2005 at 05:49:33 AM PST

    •  I hope so (none)
      I don't love love Doyle. But he is all that seperates us from the crazies.  Without his veto pen Wisconsin would have been sent back about 200 years with all the right-wing-crap- legislation that has passed over his desk.  

      If Doyle loses and Green wins, We will have to seriously think of moving. My sister lives in VA and has been begging for us to join her.

      Does the devil wear a suit and tie, Or does he work at the Dairy Queen- Martin Sexton

      by strengthof10kmen on Wed Nov 16, 2005 at 06:24:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  doyle is a weak incumbent (4.00)
        Even though I am a fervent Dem, I can't really get exceited about Doyle.   I think it is a problem when you raalying cry is "At least he's not insane!"

        The bigger issue in WI is getting the assembly and senate back into Dem control.  I may need to travel and help out on that, since in my little blue bubble, every single elected rep of mine is already a Dem.

        The revolution will not be televised

        by Uranus Hz on Wed Nov 16, 2005 at 06:36:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Too True (none)
          Even though I am a fervent Dem, I can't really get exceited about Doyle.   I think it is a problem when you raalying cry is "At least he's not insane!"

          I have not met anyone in the past 3 years who was excited about Jim Doyle. Watching him in action, I've come to respect his political skill. It looked like he was cornered just a year into his term, but he's played his game shrewdly and survived every attempt the GOP legislature has made to drown him.

          Like you, I am represented by Democrats, reliably progressive ones in fact, in both houses of legislature, as well as the US house and city and county government. I is important that all of us get out and work in swing districts for Doyle because is is so very "not insane" in a state govenrment where that is often not true.

          I believe in pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will.

          by pHunbalanced on Wed Nov 16, 2005 at 08:48:04 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, yeah. (none)
          Doyle has the charisma of a cold wet mop, but don't underestimate his political acumen.    During the upcoming campaign season, watch him sneak in with calm, plain-spoken responses to the wingnuts' most vitriolic peaks.

          We're Midwesterners, after all.  We're blessed with an above-average amount of common sense.

      •  Hope some more (none)
        I agree.

        Despite Wisconsin's fairly even political temperment, we have sadly elected a pretty "paint by Republican numbers" legislature.  These guys have spent the last 3 years bringing up evey talking point on the wignut agenda: gay marriage, abstinence only education, stem-cell bans, huffing paint thinner with W when he comes through, you name it, they pass it and Doyle shoots it down.  3 years of gotchaism.

        The trend in the Repug party up here is even more disturbing.  Last spring after the relatively (for a con) sane Senate leader, named Panzer which is a great name for a Republican, tabled TABOR, she got jumped in the primary by a hard hard right guy and lost.  The sitting majority leader was thumped by a 16th century conservative.

        That makes getting Doyle re-elected even bigger.  The wingnuts are running hard right and, unless we can take the legislature back, we NEED a Dem governor to keep the witch burners in check.

  •  I'm finally beginning to believe it. (4.00)
    The worm has turned; people are waking up.

    We've been calling them "Sheeple" for a while, but there may be more to them than meets the eye.

    I'm thinking of that Japanese Admiral who said that, after the bombing of Pearl Harbor, something about fearing they'd done nothing more than waken a sleeping giant.  The way the polls are starting to run is starting to make me feel proud to be American again.

    I wonder if Bush/CheneyCo have wakened the people.

    A part of me is still skeptical, afraid to hope too much (after 5 long years of disappointments), but the empiricist in me is starting to say, "look at the data, man, look at the data."

    -9.25, -7.54

    Yikes. Good thing I don't have guns.

    by Marc in KS on Wed Nov 16, 2005 at 05:50:32 AM PST

  •  so... (none)
    WI-Gov will be competitive, but Doyle has the clear edge.

    Yeah yeah, I know, the Rapture is coming.

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Wed Nov 16, 2005 at 05:50:40 AM PST

  •  I tend to believe the St. Norbert poll (none)
    Green is ethically challenged (Delay protege). Walker is a wingnut who would not even be county executive if he were not propped up by right-wing talk radio in Milwaukee. Doyle will have a tough campaign but he will win.
    •  Although it's a bit long (none)
      having a poll run for 12 days isn't really great

      "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

      by RBH on Wed Nov 16, 2005 at 06:10:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Its less of a problem this far out... (none)
        The problem with long-term polls is that things can change during the calling period and that won't be fully represented.  But this far out, opinion moves much slower, so chances of a major shift occuring in a 5, or 7, or even 14 day period is slim.
  •  Green (4.00)
    Mark Green has little name recognition outside of Northeast WI (Green Bay, Appleton). He seems to follow whatever the wingnuts do. He did fight for funding for a VA Clinic in Green Bay, but hasn't done anything else notable.

    Doyle did inherit a big fiscal mess from the Tommy Thompson years. He has been very strong in support of stem cell research, which I think will be a winning issue for Dems in 2006 and 2008.

    It will probably be a tough fight, but Doyle should win.

  •  I'm with those above: (none)
    Doyle is gonna get smeared some and it will be a tough go but he'll win. We haven't fully recovered from Tommy. UW wants that stem cell research ability  . 29% approve of Bush? Love that!

    "If you're going through hell, keep going". -Winston Churchill

    by One bite at a time on Wed Nov 16, 2005 at 06:13:24 AM PST

  •  This is not good news yet (none)
    What the polls don't show is that Walker is not well known outside of the greater Milwaukee metro area (about 28-30% of the state population) and Green is not well known outside of his district (about 12-13% of the state population). Right now they are just getting the same GOP automatons for them in the polls and they have nowhere to go but up.

    Walker, though a slimy, Rovian wingnut, plays the tax card and (ironically, given his campaign finance problems and quid-pro-quo deals) the "clean government" card quite effectively. The guy picks his spots and sees every advantage. He's a very right-wing GOPer who was reelected in a county that has always gone Democrat in gubernatorial and presidential elections for decades. When he was a legislator, Walker had one of the most right-wing records in the state and was best known as a culture warrior, which he has played down as Executive.

    Green is less solidly right-wing by voting record (to survive in his distrct he is forced to have a decent-for-a-GOPer record on the environment) and less venal by temperament but is currently working to build up his right-wing cred by taking a lead in the GOP anti-voting-rights movement. This move may help him against Walker in the primary, but thankfully will hurt him against Doyle statewide.

    I'd like to see Green get the GOP nd because a) he's a less talented politician than Walker and b) God forbid Doyle lose, I think Green is much less evil at heart.

    Doyle has his work cut out for him though. He is not centrist enough to automatically grab the middle liek Clinton, nor does he excite the base liek Feingold. He is, frankly, Kerry-esque & Kohl-esque (without the war record or the megamilliions and with even less charisma than either). He's been a much better governor than I had imagined and many of us realize that he is alone at the barricades, holding back the barbarians at the gates, especially where education is concenred.

    I believe in pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will.

    by pHunbalanced on Wed Nov 16, 2005 at 06:37:16 AM PST

  •  Poor poll numbers (none)
    Too bad Doyle's poll numbers are so sucky.

    Supposedly he and his crew pushed Kathleen Falk into a Dem primary race for Attorney General because incumbent Peg Lautenschlager has crappy poll numbers. This power play seems to have backfired--get ten Dems together in Dane County (Falk's home base) and you'd be lucky to find two Falk for AG supporters.

    Maybe Falk should have contested Doyle in a gubernatorial primary instead of taking on Lautenschlager!

  •  good news (none)
    I think the St. Norbert poll is a surprisingly good result.  Local media here in Madison have been painting Doyle as extremely unpopular (and frankly, he hasn't done much to help himself), and I'm glad to see that isn't translating into a change-at-any-cost movement.  I'd be really curious to see what the GOP primary looks like; I tend to think Green will have the edge there, but I also think Walker would be a more formidable opponent in the general, especially moneywise.
  •  Doyle -Dueling polls (none)
    St Norbert polls are usually ...what you see is what you get.  Doyle has a full-plate holding off an opposition state legislature with little support from democratic state office holders. Considering the significant budget deficit, padded state empolyee issue (left over from long term repub gov reign)that he has to correct.  I'd say he's doing well in this early poll.  Another issue to consider is many at this time have a strong "throw the incumbants out" attitude directed primarily at republican controlled Bush admin and supporting senators and representatives that might affect their attitude towards state government. But if this trend holds I think most will support a democratic governor when they go to the polls.
  •  St. Nobby's (none)
    as someone who graduated from St. Norbert, i must say, this is a positive sign.  things were quite conservative when i was there (86-90).  couldn't wait to get back to Chicago after 4 years up there.
  •  Doyle will survive. (none)
    The biggest thing going for him is the over the top Republican Legislature. If it begins to look like the Dems will get control of one of the chambers, Doyle's lead will shrink. There's a not insignificant fraction of the electorate which prefers divided government, as a check on either Party's agenda.

    A Senator YOU can afford
    $1 contributions only.
    Masel for Senate
    1214 E. Mifflin St.
    Madison, WI 53703

    by ben masel on Wed Nov 16, 2005 at 09:54:04 AM PST

  •  Holden (none)
    29%?

    Twenty-Nine per cent? In a partisan Republican poll?

    If Holden gets a pont when Bush breaks through 40, what does he get when Bush falls below twenty?

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