In an attempt to find out where the candidates are today in the electoral vote I used the following formula:
- Take median of Bush vs. Kerry in the last four polls. Add Bush's 3% lead nationally (3% is his lead based on the median of the last four polls) to the partisan index for each state found here: http://www.fairvote.org/map/pres2000.htm#battleground
- Add 8 points to any home state candidate, 4 points to VP candidate (not known for the Dems yet) and 2 points to a Presidential candidate whose state borders the state, to include some small regional effect and a large home state effect.
- Average the combined total of procedures above to the latest state poll for each candidate (if no state polls later than 2/19/04 no state poll used).
- Where the result is a tie, give the state to Bush if the governor is Republican and to the Democrat if the governor is a Democrat.
This method combines national polls, a state's partisan History and state polls to try to arrive at a relatively objective picture of where the candidates stand today.
This week's result Bush leads Kerry by 3% and leads in the electoral college 300-238
Last week's result Bush lead Kerry by 0.5% but trailed in the electoral college 276-262
Two week's ago results Kerry lead Bush by 5.5% and lead the electoral college 332-206.
According to this method Kerry currently leads in CA, CT, DC, DE, FL, HA, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA
Losses from the Kerry column this week: FL, IA, MN, NH
Losses from Kerry column last week: AZ, NV, NM, OH, TN, WI
Current standing in battleground states:
MI Kerry +2.5
WA Kerry +1
ME Kerry +1
OR Kerry +1
PA Kerry +1
FL Bush +0
MN Bush +1
NH Bush +1.5
OH Bush +1.5
WI Bush +3
IA Bush +3
NM Bush +5
TN Bush +5.5
NV Bush +9
AZ Bush +9
WV Bush +9
AR Bush +11
The change of AZ and NV from Kerry states to solid Bush states in the last two weeks is especially disappointing, as is NH's big move back into the Bush column from being solidly Kerry.