The argument for keeping our troops in Iraq rests on several false pillars.
Bush knows what he is doing If we just give Bush enough time he will get this all sorted out. This is magical thinking. Wave the wand and things start working. All the evidence points to the opposite conclusion. More bombing, more trials, more elections under occupation - these will not bring about conditions that can be called a victory. The actions that could have brought victory mainly lie in the past and those that remain have been scorned by this administration.
We can continue to keep our troops there at these levels There is a theoretical means of maintaining our troop levels. It involves cannibalizing all our forces around the world. Training mechanics to escort convoys. Pulling sailors from subs to guard ports. The National Guard is wrecked as a force for the next decade. Only a real idiot would enlist in the Reserves, since they will certainly be deployed, with fewer benefits and poorer equipment. Our troop levels will either fall in 2006 or we will do decades worth of damage to our military. Talk to those who served in the post-Vietnam Army to get an idea of what awaits us.
They won't just kick us out At any time, Iraq's religious leaders can make our situation untenable. If Sistanti wants 100,000 armed men blocking the roads into Baghdad, he can have them tomorrow. Are we willing to kill thousands at a time to maintain our occupation? The politician who makes the call to rid the country of the occupying Americans will be a national hero in Iraq.
American troops, contractors and businesses are a force for political stability From the beginning Iraq has been a spoils of war situation. No room for the French or Germans. All the profits (Iraq oil money and US tax dollars) would go to loyal companies. Contractors were excluded from military control and given special protection in the US written constitution. They can (and have) killed and tortured without personal consequence. Lots of non-military contractors in those torture photographs. As for police and soldiers who cooperate with the American occupiers, they are not considered heroes by the countrymen, unless they get weapons and training and then desert.
It will get real bad if we leave It's real bad now. Iraq was a real country, with schools, universities, rights for women. Now it is a vast wasteland. No jobs. No hope of direct foreign investment, which is what would create jobs. Women and children are unsafe outside their houses. The roads are moonscapes. Power and water are at Katrina like levels. Sectarian violence is a common occurrence.
We have a goal that we can achieve that will signal it is time to leave Here is one of the consequences of the lies that led us into war. We have no real objective in Iraq. Set up a democracy? Stand down as they stand up? There's a whole lot of people standing up and telling us to leave. Does that count? No amount of American dead will bring the Iraqis a democracy, especially at this point. The tipping point passed months ago. Now it is just a matter of domestic politics and inertia.
Terrorists will wait us out if we say we are leaving Hello! They live there. Of course they will wait us out.