The president's approval rating is, again, hovering in the high 40's. Tom DeLay can't get a break. The Schiavo interference is backfiring. Americans don't trust the Republican Congress - its approval rating was 38% last time I checked. The love affair with "democracy-spreading" is over, and people want their boys and girls to come home from Iraq.
We have history on our side too - midterm elections, ESPECIALLY second-term midterm elections, are rarely good for the president's party. Though 1998 was an exception, most second-term midterm elections are indeed DISASTROUS for the president's party - in 1986, Republicans lost control of the Senate. Going back further, 1958 was a HUGE Democratic landslide - the biggest congressional landslide until 1994; 1966 divided the Democratic base and gave the Republicans gigantic gains in the House; and 1974 was the "Watergate backlash" year. Keep reading...
And above all, we have been given a winning issue on a silver platter - Social Security - something Democrats have been fighting to protect for 70 years and Republicans have been trying to derail for 70 years, and the most popular government program in the history of America.
Will we get it?
2006 is shaping up to be a good year for us, no matter what the Freepers want to believe. Supposedly vulnerable Democratic incumbents like Sen. Debbie Stabenow (Michigan) and Sen. Ben Nelson (Nebraska), are looking much better than expected, while supposedly popular Republicans such as Gov. Mitt Romney (Massachusetts) and Sen. Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania) are not looking too good. Democrats already look poised to pick up at least three governor's mansions (New York, Massachusetts, and Maryland - and maybe Ohio, Nevada, Arkansas, Alabama, and Georgia as well), a House seat (Iowa-1, a Democratic district being vacated by popular Republican Jim Nussle), and perhaps two Senate seats (Pennsylvania and Rhode Island).
Can we sustain it? I hope so. While our leadership isn't perfect, it's looking much better than it did in April 2003. Harry Reid is proving to be more like Lyndon Johnson than like Tom Daschle, Nancy Pelosi is growing some spine, and Howard Dean continues to spread the New Democratic Message (Social Security, national security, fiscal responsibility, and a redefinition of "moral values"). We also have Chuck Schumer recruiting strong candidates around the country for competitive Senate races.
If we don't get too lax (as we did in 1994) or too nice (as we did in 2002 and 2004), we can take back Congress in 2006 and the White House in 2008. And no, I'm not speaking from 2003-style idealism - I'm being serious. All we need to do is have a strong message that we don't stray from.
And I do have something to ask of the entire blogosphere - this time, do not give to candidates in really uphill races like you did last year. I don't mean to be crass, but let's be strategic in 2006 and not ideological - for example, I like Jeff Seemann a lot too, but until Regula retires, we don't have a strong shot at that seat. Let's instead give, even if we don't agree with the candidate on everything, to candidates who can win. I'm not being pessimistic - indeed, with enough of a Democratic tide we could see Dick Lugar fall - but I am being strategic.
Many people forget midterm elections, and they are usually when GOP turnout is especially high because Dems have to actually work while GOPers can spend all day golfing. Are you ready? Lecture time: That's why I urge all of you in the cities, suburbs, exurbs, or farmlands to do your part during Election Night to drive Democrats to the polls or simply help register voters. It doesn't matter whether you're in Boston, Vegas, Joliet, or Waco - make sure some black, some Latino, some woman, some Jew, or some twentysomething votes. Last year, I was in the process of moving during the election and wasn't able to go to Nevada as I'd hoped and GOTV. But next year, I will do whatever I can. We don't know exactly what the close races will be yet, but when November 7, '06 comes, we must all do our part.
What do you think? Do you see a comeback in the crystal ball for 2006?