There are a
presidential polls out and the
Bush series has an interesting turn - these numbers all point in different directions. Fox has Hillary plummeting among Democrats, down from a lofty 40 to a very beatable 26. However, Cook has her down to only 33. Which means that with a 10 point wide error band the probability is that she is down, but not down as precipitously as Fox has her. The indicator that makes these polls seem reasonable is that John Kerry is way up. Since Kerry is the second choice of Hillary voters, this means that the poll is picking up a real trend the "vote the establishment" Democrats are looking for someone other than Hillary, who seems to be out of touch with the party.
On the Republican side the lack of Rice in recent polls means these polls are of questionable value.
Rice would be willing to run if she could walk to the nomination, and she is the closest thing to a viable heir apperant on the Republican side. The rise of Gingrich in recent polls indicates that the nativist message is starting to penetrate the 'phant rank and file as being the next swarthy peril that they have combat.
But the big question mark is over the Bush approval numbers:
FOX/Opinion Dynamics RV 12/13-14/05 42 51 7 -9
Diageo/Hotline RV 12/12-13/05 50 47 3 +3
NBC/Wall Street Journal 12/9-12/05 39 55 6 -16
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 12/9-11/05 42 55 3 -13
Cook/RT Strategies 12/8-11/05 42 55 2 -13
Running the stat on these makes it clear that Diageo is probably an outlier, and that Bush is probably around 42% approval. Up from his November pit, but hardly the kind of rocket bounce he usually has gotten. However, the Bush team knows that they have to put lipstick on this pig, and have about 200 billion dollars of stimulus planned for 2006 to get his, and the Republicans, numbers up in time for November.
What's interesting is that Fox has Bush's personal favorables below 50%, indicating that the country has, indeed, soured on Bush, and are no longer going to give him a "get out of trouble free" card.
The congressional numbers point to how hard it is going to be to improve the Republican Congress:
Date - Republican - Democrat - Other - Difference
Diageo/Hotline RV 12/12-13/05 33 43 25 -10
CBS/New York Times RV 12/2-6/05 33 42 25 -9
Democracy Corps (D) LV 11/30 - 12/4/05 39 49 12 -10
Time RV 11/29 - 12/1/05 36 48 15 -12
Note the same poll that has Bush at 50% approval gives the Democrats a hefty 10% lead. If the leaners break 60-40 against the incumbent party, that means that the Democrats are up 15 points on the generic republicans. Assuming that a good deal of that is in Democratic base areas that are fed up with Bush, it still leaves the Republicans looking at major losses. In fact, even as Bush has recovered somewhat, their numbers continue to tank.
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What these numbers say:
- The country wants different leadership, both within the parties and with the power balance in Washington.
- The marginal Bush voters are back on board with the huge drop in gasoline prices. However, since gasoline isn't going to a dollar a gallon in the next month - in fact it is up 10% off of its low already - there isn't much room for the Bush bounce to continue.
- The situation is now fluid, people have given up on old policies.
Right now the Democratic and Republican Primary electorates are headed in different directions. The Democrats are deserting their front runner, or at least looking around. The figures that have generated insider excitement - Feingold, Warner, Clark in their different circles, are still not penetrating the public consciousness. Instead it is proven names that domiante this phase of the contest. The drop in Hillary's numbers, if confirmed, means that her hard right tack for the New York State senate race is killing her nationally. I am speaking to more and more Democrats who dislike her, and feel she will betray basic principles if given the chance. Not just activists, but inside the beltway types who wince with each new Dump the Left Clinton pronouncement.
The Republicans, by contrast, are looking for their front runner, and have not yet found one. The persistent Guilliani vote indicates there is the possibility for the Democrats, if they can find a candidate who will appeal to Northern moderates, could achieve a landslide, pulling the moderates of the Republican party north of the mason-dixon and west of the Mississippi over to their side.