Today the Census Bureau released its new population estimates for all 50 states. Three states - New York, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, lost population. The fastest growth was in Nevada, Arizona, Idaho, and Florida.
These trends are unsurprising. They've been continuing for decades. But they have a real effect on the apportionment of seats in the House of Representatives every decade.
Read my estimated changes below the fold...
We already know that because of population trends since the 2000 Census, if Congress were re-apportioned in 2004, the following changes would have happened:
Arizona +1 seat, for a total of 9
Florida +1 seat, for a total of 26
Iowa -1 seat, for a total of 4
New York -1 seat, for a total of 28
Ohio -1 seat, for a total of 17
Pennsylvania -1 seat, for a total of 18
Texas +1 seat, for a total of 33
Utah +1 seat, for a total of 4
So as of last year, Arizona, Florida, Texas, and Utah each would have gained one seat in Congress at the expense of Iowa, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. We know this.
But since 2005's estimates were just released today, the number-crunchers in Washington haven't played the apportionment game yet, and probably won't give us their findings until January.
With a quick use of my calculator, however, I made my own guesses.
Because Massachusetts was already barely holding onto its 10th seat in 2004, and indeed lost population between July 2004 and July 2005, it is hardly unsurprising that the Bay State probably will have lost that last seat, for a new total of 9. Where that new seat goes to is not quite as sure. Both Nevada and Texas would appear to be competing for the honor. My calculator indicated the winner would be Nevada, but since I can't count military personnel, Texas may indeed be the winner.
It's annoying. I wish those geeks in Washington would get to work!
Anyway, if my guess is correct, yet another seat would have swung from Rust Belt to Sun Belt in 2005, going from the Old America (Massachusetts) to the New (Nevada). And indeed, Massachusetts is not the only weakling this year. Missouri, Minnesota, and Louisiana are holding onto their final seats by a bare thread, and indeed by 2006, because of Hurricane Katrina, we can assume Louisiana will have lost that 7th seat.
Anyway, just my analysis. Once Election Data Services, or some other think-tank, comes up with their estimates, we can be more sure. For now, we know Massachusetts has lost and Nevada has probably gained this year. Indeed, perhaps a second seat changed hands too, if my calculator is off: Missouri may have lost to Texas, or Minnesota to Texas. It's just one more nail in the coffin of the Rust Belt.
UPDATE: It appears my calculations were correct: http://electiondataservices.com says that indeed, in 2005 Massachusetts lost and Nevada gained. Texas did not gain, but was next in line, with Missouri being the next to lose.