As promised, this is the first of a series of diaries that will follow the progress of the British General Election. What it hopes to achieve and how it will go about its business was described in this initial diary It was immediately followed up by a brilliantly informative and entertaining diary by one of our main contributors, Lizzie (known here as Febble). It is called "A short guide to the British constitution and electoral system". If you missed it or want to refresh your memory of aspects of British politics, you will find it here.
This diary will be owned and managed by a number of us on DKos. The main contributors will be Lizzie, representing the Labour Party, Edis Beavan (also known on Dkos as saugatojas) representing the Liberal Democrats. The third will be a Conservative. Unfortunately, no representative is currently available. The blogger invited had issues about hanging around on here with you guys and generally can best be summed up as follows:
Until a replacement is found, the Conservative Party will be represented by a quacking duck. Until one comes and shows that the Conservatives can produce logical arguments, I have no reason to believe that this will be less informative than having a spokesperson from that party here.
Let me quickly introduce our two diarists. I asked them about the parties that they support and why and what involvement they would have , if any, in the election.
First up, let me invite Edis Beavan (Lib Dem) to answer. No bias in my doing so. It has nothing, of course to do with the party he is supporting. Nor has it anything to do with his Welsh heritage. Nor has it anything to do with Wales winning the Grand Slam on Saturday (beating England, Italy, France, Scotland and, finally, Ireland at the weekend in the international rugger matches). It may have something to do with the fact that his web site informs me that his Great-Uncle Thomas Bedford Richards, wrote the words for the Hymn 'Calon Lan', one of, if not the, most famous of Welsh hymns. I sang this on Saturday at 5.00 p.m. with the boys in the pub down on the sea front, a tradition at rugger gatherings. As the final whistle blew, the fervour of our voices had a spirituality to them that no chapel singing could have matched. The beer helped, a little.
I digress. Edis tells us why he is a Liberal Democrat:
My family have experienced both Nazi and Soviet oppression. The Liberal Democrats for me are the moral antithesis to both. Freedom for the individual balancing the sometimes conflicting demands of community and equality. The state exists to empower people to make the decisions that affect their own lives in their own communities. No discrimination on racial, gender or sexual orientation grounds. Defend public services and our life support system, the environment.
I am on the campaign team for a constituency.
Lizzie (Labour) explains why she has just renewed her Labour Party membership card:
The Labour Party claims to be a democratic socialist party. It once promised to "secure to the workers by hand and brain the full fruits of their labour through the common ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange". It now seeks only to create "a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many, not the few", and "where we live together, freely, in a spirit of solidarity, tolerance and respect.
The main reason I still support Labour is because Labour is infinitely preferable to the Tories. If the Liberal Democrats had a reasonable chance of winning I might vote for them. I'd like to see them as the main opposition, and if they became the main opposition, I would consider voting for them. I will probably do some canvassing for the Labour party.
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Thanks Lizzie, even if your comments seem to be suffering from Bliar de-motivation in giving your vote to Labour again.
The response from the Conservative Party spokesman was:
I then asked Lizzie (Labour) what she thought the five most important issues would be in the election. Her answer was:
1- Blair: I think much will depend on whether people can ignore their disgust with Blair enough to vote Labour
2- NHS: I think people want to be confident that there will be tangible improvements in the National Health Service
3- Iraq: I think people want to see a clear and rapid exit strategy.
4- Transport: people are still waiting to see whether Labour can propose and implement a coherent public transport strategy
5- Asylum seekers: much will depend on whether this non-issue is inflated and manipulated by any party
If Lizzie is right about asylum seekers, then the Conservatives will be successful in setting a nasty part of the agenda, They have already started in the last three days by talking about restrictions on what some describe as gypsies and others describe more pejoratively, but perhaps more accurately, as "travellers", to denote their less romantic background. I am sure that both commentators will have comments on this Tory strategy.
Edis (Lib Dem) responded:
1 The economy (as always)
2 Trust in the government (after Iraq) and defence of freedom against over-mighty state.
3 State of public services and how much we pay for them
4 Our sense of security or lack of it in our communities (lots of threads here)
5 International security under the rule of law.
Asked what they hoped their parties would be able to make more prominent in the agenda, Edis (Lib Dem) replied: 1 The need to defend freedom even in tought times and when under attack, nationally or internationally and 2 The real economic benefits of taking a `green' approach to economics. Lizzie (Labour) wanted the public debate to concentrate of her party's areas of what she sees as their strengths -Healthcare and education.
I finally asked them both, at this very early stage (remember, no election has yet been announced, although it will be a huge surprise if it does not take place in June) what they forecast the outcome will be:
Lizzie (Labour) responded:
"Labour win, majority reduced to 75. Gains of 28 for the Tories, 15 for the Lib Dems (I'd like the opportunity to revise this when I've had a look at margins!)"
Edis (Lib Dem) responded:
"Labour back in power. Up to 40 seats net loss by Labour. Tories may have 130 to 170 seats (at present 155) depending on the lottery of first past the post. Depends on how Libdems do (at present 55 seats) ."
So both are hedging a little. One of my favourite pollsters is UK Elect who forecast based on the latest polls (in 2001 they forecast to within 2 seats). Excluding the minor parties, their prediction is that Labour will lose 37 seats, Conservatives will pick up 3 and Liberal Democrats will gain 18 seats. If correct, this will be a massive achievement by the Lib Dems and threaten the Conservatives as the party of opposition.
Well, it is early days.
One thing that all parties will have to be alert to is the problem of low turnout that in 2001 was 59.3%. This is not dissimilar from the 60.7% turnout in the US Presidential election but is a historical low for the UK, as this chart shows:
A significant element in this low poll in 2001 was voter apathy and rejection of all politicians. A substantial part, however, was Conservative disenchantment with their party. This time round, it is Blair who may find his voters stay at home. Officially they fear that this is because of a feeling that the result is a foregone conclusion. They can't ignore the possibility, however, of a strong anti-Blair vote combined with a reluctance to vote for any other party.
I have asked both Lizzie and Edis to comment on what each other have said and to give a flavour as to what is happening in the debate at the moment. I shall include these in the first comment posted after the diary.
The next diary will include a poll for all you US citizens on DKos after a bit more discussion about the parties. It will be followed by another one on election eve to see if any of our commentators have changed your mind, I hope, by then, the right-wing Duck will have stopped quacking and gained a voice on DKos.
I shall also be trying to involve some of those of you who have offered to help out in the main diary section. Don't forget, also, that Jerome a Paris will be doing a similar diary for the French Referendum on the European Constitution. This is a vital vote that will have a ripple effect throughout the European Union.