Economic growth (the percentage increase in the GNP) has been very strong in the last few quarters along with corporate earnings, productivity, and now the stock market indicators. But job growth continues to be stagnant. Inflation and interest rates are low and creeping up only slowly. The dollar is fairly weak. The trade deficits with our major partners and the budget deficit are ballooning.
This complex economic picture gives something for everyone. I suspect it means whoever controls the message controls the spin (strong economy vs. Bush recession; blame 9-11 and the dot-com bubble vs. blame irresponsible tax cuts and Congress' spending on right-wing agenda).
With the Republicans having a big money lead, it means Democrats may not have the economy as their core issue in the general election, despite its prominent role in the primary so far.
Now imagine for a moment that job growth ticks up over the summer and earnings rise, suggesting that federal revenues will be higher than expected (reducing the deficit somewhat).
What does that do to the dynamic of the race for President? Which Dem, if nominated, would it hurt the most?