This WaPo story suggests that this election will be won on uncontrollable factors, like the state of the war and the economy. It's true that huge chunks of the outcome will hinge on these, but
this election predictor by Yale's Ray Fair suggests that Bush will win by up to 8%, but if examined, it also shows some loopholes that Democrats should exploit.
A brief explanation of how it works is on my blog for anyone who wants more background, and the model's link is in my sidebar for future reference. But my biggest argument is the ability of bloggers, in the context of party building, to change the equation, that is the very game itself. I thought might be of interest to people here.
The two things that neither side can control are the state of Iraq and the economy come November. What Democrats can do is influence the perception of these factors, by emphasizing the misleading information that led to the war, the lack of an exit strategy, harping on the recklessness of the tax cuts and the deficit they've brought, and revealing the inequity of their distribution. People don't based on how things are. They vote on how they perceive them to be. Of course, I'm not suggesting that liberals lie. We don't need to. There's plenty wrong with the way things are; we just need to make sure that the electorate perceives that.
There is one more very important thing that we can change, that we are changing. We are rebuilding a party capable of winning elections. One particularly interesting piece of the equation is Republican advantage. That is, statistically, Republicans have been more successful at winning elections since 1916, because of which the model gives Bush an automatic 2.7% of the electorate. That's a third of his projected victory. Democrats can shrink or reverse this number by improving the perception of the Democratic Party relative to Republicans. This is where factors like MoveOn, the blogosphere, and Air America can make a difference. If Democrats, including Kerry but not only him, can appear to be united, focused, competent, and inspired, they might be able to improve the public's perception of them. We all know that the blogosphere is changing the game of politics, and this model can show how.