So according to
Josh Marshall and
Zogby, things have tightened up in Iowa to where there is a virtual 3-way tie for the lead. Throw Edwards in the mix (rising past the 15% barrier), and you have the distinct possibility that there will be 4 candidates with 20% or more on caucus night.
What a headache...
At the same time, the
ARG numbers in NH are showing Clark and Kerry gaining on Dean, Lieberman receding slightly.
With a 4-way race in Iowa and a 3-way race in NH, if the results look anything like the polling today, the press will have a hell of a time divining the storyline, the top 2 contenders, and the winners and losers of the expectations game. The assumed Dean/Clark race would be put on hold, as the only candidate who would be pressured to leave would be Lieberman. They'll probably try to push Gephardt off the cliff if he doesn't finish 1st in Iowa, or Edwards if he doesn't show more strength in Feb. 3rd polling. But a Gep win in Missouri and an Edwards win in SC may assure that they both stay in until March.
The press wants a Dean/Clark race and it may still eventually get it. But this thing could get crazy through the month of February. There's a distinct possibility, maybe now even a probability, that by Super Tuesday there will still be a 5-way race (Dean, Clark, Edwards, Gephardt, Kerry) where each candidate will still be very viable.
I'm no historian or expert but I certainly can't recall a primary race as evenly split as this one is shaping up to be.
Good for junkies like us, but bad for the party. A duel between 2 is better than a circular firing squad of 5.