For the last couple of months, I've been putting together estimates of how the candidates will fare when it comes to winning delegates through the first month of the primary season. I haven't tried to project further, not only because there are a lack of polls for later states, but because the results of later races will be heavily swayed by the momentum gathered in the early states.
When putting together these numbers, Senator Kerry comes out in the middle of the pack. His delegate count is close to that of General Clark, and not so far from Representative Gephardt that a few poll points here and there wouldn't reverse their positions. However, I think Kerry's position is a lot more dire than the delegate count would suggest. Senator Edwards doesn't look good by any count, scoring only a few delegates in a single state.
Rather than counting delegates, here's a look that counts something a lot more basic: state wins. State wins get press. State wins generate buzz. State wins get that cool checkmark next to your name.
19 January
Iowa, 45 delegates -- Richard Gephardt
Representative Gephardt must win Iowa. It's a neighboring state with strong labor involvement. It plays to Gephardt's strengths. He has to take it, and if the most recent polls can be believed, there's a good chance he will. Looking at the four most recent polls, Gephardt is anywhere from 0-7 points ahead of Governor Dean. Because this is "home turf" for Gephardt, he won't get as much boost from this win as he might from a pickup in a more distant part of the country, but it sure beats a kick in the teeth. Gephardt will get media attention for the win, and some of the gleam of inevitability that surrounds Dean will be dulled. Kerry should finish third in Iowa. Recent polls have him from 5-12 points behind Dean. If he keeps the margin inside ten points, it should be worth two or three points for the next battle.
27 January
New Hampshire, 22 delegates -- Howard Dean
Dean will win New Hampshire. In the last four polls from this state, he leads Senator Kerry by from 12-15 points. It would take a misstep of cosmic significance to keep Dean away from the top spot in this state. The most brilliant speeches and fastest handshaking on record can't save Kerry now unless Dean fouls his own nest. Even if Gephardt wins Iowa. Even if Kerry nips at Dean's heels. It will not be enough. We're two months away. Dean has money, support, and organization. Kerry will finish second in New Hampshire, probably about ten points back of Dean. Gephardt's win in Iowa should give him the momentum he needs to slip past General Clark and Senator Lieberman for a third place showing. This in itself will be almost as big a "win" for Gephardt as Dean will recieve for actually taking the state. At the end of the night, both Dean and Gephardt look like solid candidates that can actually play outside their own district. Kerry will look like an also-ran.
3 February
Arizona, 55 Delegates -- Howard Dean
Dean takes the state with Clark coming in second. Lieberman carries third with support from numerous retirees. Kerry, dented by the second place finish in New Hampshire, lands in fourth. Even if New Hampshire somehow fails to budge the numbers, the best Kerry manages is a tie with Lieberaman.
Delaware, 15 delegates -- Joseph Lieberman
The Dean and Gephardt wins over the first two weeks keep any candidate from looking like a lock. Lieberman holds on to his poll numbers and gets this state, with Dean right behind and Gephardt on his heels. Kerry finishes out of the money.
Missouri, 74 delegates -- Richard Gephardt
Gephardt takes the mother country with a solid win. Dean is back in second place, showing again that he has life in the midwest. Kerry clings to third.
New Mexico, 26 delegates -- Howard Dean
Dean puts another southwest state in his corner. On the television, pundits will already be talking about his "lock" on this part of the country. Meanwhile, Lieberman makes a good showing in second. Kerry is third again.
North Dakota, 14 delegates -- Richard Gephardt
Frankly, I've got nothing here. I can look to Iowa, Missouri, and the Great Lakes states as the closest places with recent polls. I'd be willing to believe the state would go to Dean instead of Gephardt. I seriously doubt it goes to Kerry.
Oklahoma, 40 delegates -- Richard Gephardt
Another neighboring state for Gephardt. Missouri has a boatload of neighboring states. Oklahoma is on the edge -- a little farm belt, a little bible belt, a little southwest. Gephardt should play well there. Park Dean in a solid second place, with either Clark or Kerry third.
South Carolina, 45 delegates -- Wesley Clark
Score one for the southerners. A strong military backing along with regional credibility gives first place to Clark. The other home region candidate, John Edwards picks up a second place.
So, that takes us to the end of "mini-Tuesday." By the time the polls close in Arizona, we'll have all seen CNN's new election graphics exactly 300 times. The delegate count will lean towards Dean. But what about the "buzz quotient?"
Here's how that looks
Richard Gephardt -- 4 states
Howard Dean -- 3 states
Joseph Lieberman -- 1 state
Wesley Clark -- 1 state
Gephardt and Dean come out of this initial period as the serious candidates. They have wide support. They have the aid of organizations that span the country. Gephardt may be aching for cash by this point, but he's still a player. Lieberman and Clark get some skin in the game. At this point, they both look like regional candidates, but there are some opportunuties in their future.
The two Johns, Kerry and Edwards, are in bad, bad, achy, painful shape. And it's not clear when they might get a chance to get healthy. The candidates with wins are going to get air time. When Kerry and Edwards get air time at this point, the first question every reporter is going to ask: how much longer do you think you can stay in the race?
The next week offers up a contest in Michigan and another in Maine. Michigan looks like a Dean state with Clark and Gephardt fighting it out for second. Kerry is right in there with Gephardt in current polls. But once Gephardt's name has had a big (W) next to it four times to Kerry's zero, it's hard to see this not having some effect. Maine comes on the very next day. In the last (and only?) poll, Dean and Kerry were tied up in Maine, but again, there's going to be some momentum by this point, a little grease on the tracks. Barring a major case of foot-in-mouth, Dean takes the state. After that for Kerry there is... Pennsylvania on April 27th. Of all the states that have been polled, from Iowa on, that's the only state that shows Kerry in the lead. The game will be over by then.
Folks, there is just no way for Kerry to win this thing that doesn't involve at least two other candidates sharing a small aircraft. I'm sorry. A year ago I was solidly in Kerry's camp. But he's over.
For Edwards, the first chance to get a score won't appear until his home state comes up on May 4. There is no other state in which Edwards leads. If there's a mystery in this campaign, it has to be the non-success of the Edward's campaign. I went to hear him talk last winter. Good speaker. Passionate. People were lining up to give him money. Heck, I gave him money. But there is no remaining scenario on this Earth that sees John Edwards to the White House.
I can hear the arguments already: there are two months left. You can't count someone out before the first vote. You're just pulling for Dean.
On the first point, yes it's two months, but that's not a "lifetime in politics." That's a heartbeat, especially as we move over the holiday season. You're not going to see major shakeups in Iowa and New Hampshire from here on out, you're only going to see solidification of current positions. If you do see changes elsewhere, they're not likely to help either Kerry or Edwards. I'm a Dean supporter, but I plead not guilty to the last charge. I'm campaigning for Dean. I'm pulling for the Democrats. And at this point, I think Kerry and Edwards are hurting the party.
Even though the odds are infintesimal, Kerry and Edwards look like legitimate candidates. They still command press attention. They still get support from local politicians, local organizations, local fundraisers. To be brutally cold, they're taking money and attention away from candidates that can still win this thing. It's time for them to summon up the dignity and the courage to leave.
If the Senators Kerry and Edwards would quit the stage, maybe we'd even get Representative Kucinich to bow out before the next debate and give the contenders more than five minutes of air time. (I know, that's too much to hope for.)
It's cold coffee for the Kerry and Edwards supporters, but at this point every moment they stay in the race, every dollar they spend attacking other candidates, and every second of air time they deflect will only help George W. Bush.
If it's any consolation, things down the line don't look too good for Dean. He's leading in only three other states, all of them small and all of them in the northeast. In the big Super Tuesday states, it's Clark and Lieberman that have the current edge. Should they manage the projected wins before Feb. 7 and keep these numbers, it could well be Clark and Lieberman dueling down the line, with Dr. Dean only a memory. Or Dean could upset Gephardt in Iowa and the whole thing could be over but the shouting by the second week of February.
But it won't be Edwards. And it won't be Kerry.