How much trouble in Kerry in? Here, with credits to CA Poll Junkie's diary of 11/1/03 is how Dean and Kerry compare in the most recent polls in each state.
Dean is ahead, in many cases by more than the MOE, in every state except Florida (whose primary is 3/9, but under a poll from June of this year), Pennsylania (whose primary is 4/27), New Jersey (whose primary is 6/8), Maine (whose primary is 2/8, where he is tied), and Rhode Island (whose primary is 3/2 where he is tied). Kerry might hope to win his home state whose primary is 3/2 but has no polling yet.
Iowa (1/19): Dean 26, Kerry 15
NH (1/27): Dean 37, Kerry 24
AZ (2/3): Dean 19, Kerry 9
Missouri (2/3): Dean 22, Kerry 14
New Mexico (2/3): Dean 18, Kerry 10
South Carolina (2/3): Dean 7, Kerry 4
Michigan (2/7): Dean 21, Kerry 13
Maine (2/8): Dean 18, Kerry 18
Wisconsin (2/17): Dean 13, Kerry 7
California (3/2): Dean 14, Kerry 9
Connecticut (3/2): Dean 17, Kerry 14
Georgia (3/2): Dean 7.4, Kerry 4.9
Maryland (3/2): Dean 23, Kerry 7
New York (3/2): Dean 18, Kerry 9
Ohio (3/2): Dean 9, Kerry 8
Rhode Island (3/2): Dean 17, Kerry 17
Florida (3/9): Kerry 8; Dean 5
Illinois (3/16): Dean 10, Kerry 8
Pennsylvania (4/27): Kerry 18, Dean not ranked.
North Carolina (5/4): Dean 23, Kerry 17
Alabama (6/1): Dean 5, Kerry not ranked.
New Jersey (6/8): Kerry 14, Dean not ranked.
Moreover, if momentum means anything, states like Maine and Rhode Island which are tied between Dean and Kerry, are likely to swing to deliver more votes to Dean than Kerry, when, in the case of Maine, Dean has bested Kerry in 11 other contests, and in the case of Rhode Island, when Kerry is on a 17 state losing streak.
Another really interesting point about these numbers is that Kerry appears in the polls not as the anti-Dean, but as the mini-Dean. The two men's poll numbers ebb and rise in close step with each other based on local political climates.
Add to this a couple of facts: (1) Kerry's poll numbers were remarkably resilent in the face of Clark's entry into the race, despite conventional wisdom that he would take the biggest hit; (2) the most recent South Carolina poll showed a straight vote trade from Edwards to Clark with very little movement for other candidates.
This leads me to conclude that:
(1) Kerry supporters are overwhelmingly going to break for Dean, when Kerry inevitably drops out.
and
(2) Edwards supporters are overwhemlingly going to break for Clark, when Edwards inevitably drops out.
Since Kerry has more supporters than Edwards in most states, this analysis favors Dean over Clark. This analysis also hurts Gephardt's chances, since it suggests that his base is different from the Dean-Kerry base, or the Clark-Edwards base.
I can't tell you which of the top three candidates (Dean, Clark and Gephardt) are going to get Lieberman supporters, Braun supporters, and Sharpton supporters. (Does Kucinich have any supporters?) But, I can tell you, than unless they swing overwhelmingly to Clark or Gephardt, that this is Dean's race to lose in a way considerably more sure than the polls in the 9 candidate race we have now would indicate.