The latest on our upcoming Senate landslide:
GOP-HELD
Pennsylvania [Rick Santorum - R] - not much new here except that Dems continue to deny the presence of Chuck Pennacchio as a contender and say that Bob Casey Jr. has the nomination locked up. Despite what Pennacchio's followers would say, Casey probably DOES have the nomination locked up, but Pennacchio should at least be acknowledged, don't you think? Anyhow, it'll probably be a Casey vs. Santorum race unless there's some shocker, like (gasp) a sex scandal or something. Both men will have the backing of their party establishments and lots of funding. The Keystone State should prepare for a nasty and competitive race. Hopefully, Casey will come on top, as most of the polls indicate he will.
More below the jump.
Rhode Island [
Lincoln Chafee - R] - in two weeks, everything has changed. Jim Langevin is out, Patrick Kennedy is out, and Sheldon Whitehouse (love the last name, don't you?) is in. SoS Matt Brown is also running, but Whitehouse would have the edge in the primary and probably the general too. Chafee is very beatable if we just play things smart and don't wimp out because he's a moderate. After all, who was the most targeted Senate Democrat last year? Yep, Tom Daschle - a moderate. They also went hard after Tim Holden, Chet Edwards, Jim Matheson, and other moderate-to-conservative House Dems. We should not let Chafee slip by - I say we give him hell for being an (R), and for not voting for Kerry. If he wishes to be reelected, tell him he must put a (D) after his name, and we'll let him go unchallenged.
Tennessee [Open - R] - well, as you might expect, this is no cakewalk for us. However, unlike several southern races last year (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Florida) we have nothing to lose by losing this, since it's already a Republican-held seat. Better, though, is that we can win it (or so early polls say). Harold Ford Jr., a moderate black Democrat representing Memphis in Congress, seems likely to win our nomination. He is polished, young, and attractive. He will have lots of money and name recognition. There are only three problems - 1) he could be perceived by the voters as too slick and rehearsed and opportunistic, 2) he is a Democrat in a GOP-trending state, and 3) his family's..."colorful" history will make him vulnerable to Republican attacks. The good news is this: 1) popular Democratic governor Phil Bredesen will be at the top of the ticket, 2) Tennessee, like many southern states, still has a strong Democratic presence at the local level, and 3) Ford has a lot of stuff working in his favor as a candidate. Few of us agree with Ford on everything (which is fine - we shouldn't only run "pure" candidates). However, I for one was surprised and impressed by his showing on Washington Journal last night. He is probably the best shot we have (plus this opens up his safe House seat for a more liberal Democrat). He's also geographically smart - he's been spending time building strength in HEAVILY Republican East Tennessee for a while. Oh, and one more thing - Republicans will have a bloody and free-for-all primary.
Nevada [John Ensign - R] - Though many assume Ensign is unbeatable, pols see that this state is trending Dem, and the latest is that the Nevada Democratic Party is doing its darndest to get somebody - the two names I've heard are former AG Del Papa (or De Papa or something) and Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus (who seems more interested in running for governor). I wish we could get Dick Bryan to run for his old seat, a la Frank Lautenberg in 2002.
Missouri [Jim Talent - R] - Despite the fact that every prominent Dem in the Show Me State (from Auditor Claire McCaskill to SoS Robin Carnahan to former Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell to AG Jay Nixon) says they're not interested, Missouri Democrats still hold out hope that there will be SOMEONE to challenge this unimpressive incumbent in a GOP-trending swing state. I don't understand why NO ONE is interested - WHY???? Talent barely beat Jean Carnahan in the 2002 special election - BARELY, by a hair. And yet, all of the Dems are cosy where they are. Damn!
Montana [Conrad Burns - R] - A poll has confirmed that, as some predicted, Burns is vulnerable. His support is lukewarm - a 49% approval rating. In this rapidly left-trending red state, any strong Dem can do it. Most people say either Senate Majority Leader Jon Tester or AG Mike McGrath. I don't know, but wouldn't you love to have Montana, of all places, considered a swing state going into 2008?
Ohio [Mike DeWine - R] - There is only one Ohio Democrat I know of who has the geographical strength to do this - Ted Strickland, Congressman of Marietta. And it seems D.C. Dems are pressuring him to do it, a la Casey in Pennsylvania. Let's hope Strickland signs on - Ohio deserves at least some statewide Democratic presence.
Mississippi [Trent Lott - R] - With extremely popular former AG Mike Moore probably not running, I have little hope. BUT, Erik Fleming (a state senator or something) is running. I hope he's at least more than a sacrificial lamb. There's still time, anyhow.
Texas [Open - R] - I'm declaring this open. For the umpteenth time, there's strong evidence that Kay Bailey Hutchison is running for governor. The Houston Chronicle says she had a conversation with a West Texas Republican that she will challenge Governor Perry in the primary. She denies it, but everybody knows her intentions. Now the question is whether we have the balls to run somebody good against Henry Bonilla.
Virginia [George Allen - R] - Well, Governor Mark Warner may not be out after all. While most believe he is more interested in a presidential run than a challenge to Allen, Allen recently wrote a fundraising letter to his supporters that he fears Warner will go for it. Well, he might just be scaring them into giving $, or Warner may still be in the game. If Warner is, then this is right up there with Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.
No change in: Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Utah, Wyoming
DEM-HELD
Connecticut [Joe Lieberman - D] - as many of you know, Lieberman is officially more popular among Republicans than among Dems. Shame! Normally I wouldn't advocate primary challenges against moderate incumbents, but since this is a blue state, we won't lose anything from it. Go after him! Even if he wins the primary, make sure he knows not to keep badmouthing his fellow Dems.
Florida [Bill Nelson - D] - It seems GOP operatives are trying to sway the Wicked Witch of the Gulf Coast (Katherine Harris) away from a run. They know she won't win. Actually, I'm getting more and more optimistic about our chances here. Even though Nelson's no Bob Graham, Republicans will have a governor's mansion to defend - AND there may be an initiative for nonpartisan redistricting on the ballot that would likely pass, meaning Florida's GOP machine could just be on its last legs. No victory party yet, though - there's always fraud to take into account.
Maryland [Open - D] - not much new here except that Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, a black GOP "rising star" may run. If so, the Repigs will spend lots of money here, which is good. I don't see Steele as the GOP's Obama, and he's working against strong Democratic leanings of the state. Plus, he may face a black Democrat, therefore taking the affirmative action factor off the table. But let them pretend they can win this - it'll keep them from going after Florida, Nebraska, Michigan, or Minnesota as aggressively.
Michigan [Debbie Stabenow - D] - Ironically, Michigan's not-so-long-ago-dominant GOP can't get anyone to run against Stabenow. Not Candice Miller. Not Mike Rogers. Not John Engler. Not Mike Bouchard. NOBODY! She will probably get a challenge from some underfunded civilian, and end up getting reelected handily despite her supposed vulnerability. I'm not sure of victory yet, and Miller could change her mind, but I'll tell you this - Michigan Republicans are now spending much more time talking about beating Governor Granholm.
Minnesota [Open - D] - Not much new here, but a new report shows that Democrat Amy Klobuchar, the Hennepin County Attorney, has outraised Republican Mark Kennedy. No mention of Patty Wetterling, though, who is running and would be, IMHO, a stronger choice than Klobuchar.
Nebraska [Ben Nelson - D] - Cornhuskers voted 2-1 for President Bush. They are among the most conservative in the country. But perhaps Nebraska's GOP will just let them continue to have a Democratic Senator, because no Republican seems interested (they are all drooling after the open governor's mansion). So, like Stabenow, Ben Nelson might just stumble into a strong reelection.
New Jersey [Open - D] - Nothing much new, except that we may be closer to hearing an announcement from Corzine on who his replacement will be (Frank Pallone, Bob Menendez, and Rob Andrews are all possibilities).
North Dakota [Kent Conrad - D] - Conrad will be safe unless Governor Hoeven runs. GOPers, including the White House, are aggressively trying to recruit him. If it works, this will be a tough one to defend, like Daschle in 2004. However, both Conrad and Hoeven are popular, and if Hoeven runs a weak campaign or there is Democratic momentum, as I expect there may be, Conrad will survive.
West Virginia [Robert Byrd - D] - Some guy named Hiram Lewis is now running against Byrd, sayig he's out of touch with West Virginia, etc. etc. etc. Expect this to be the disappointingly boring race of the year (like Washington and Wisconsin in 2004). Even if Byrd retires, I expect to keep this seat. Did you hear me? YES, I expect a Democratic hold in West Virginia even if Byrd retires. Why? Look no further than local politics - which party has huge majorities in the legislature and just won 63% of the vote in the gubernatorial race? Not Republicans. Like Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina, West Virginia likes Democrats on the state level but does not like them in presidential elections these days (though with an exceptional candidate in 2008, that may change).
No change in: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin