Charlie Cook at NationalJournal.com on the 2004 Presidential election and congressional districts, "The unprecedented partisan loyalty displayed by voters in picking a president was also reflected at the congressional level."
This week, Polidata's Clark Bensen's preliminary compilation of presidential results by each of the 435 congressional districts is political nirvana for congressional-race watchers. The new results show President Bush won the popular vote in 255 congressional districts, a 75-seat edge over Sen. John Kerry's 180 congressional districts.
255 congressional districts for President Bush versus 180 for Senator John Kerry. How many congressional districts split their tickets between the presidential candidate of one party and the congressional candidate of the other?
In only 59 districts (or 13 percent of House seats) did voters split their tickets between the presidential candidate of one party and the congressional candidate of the other.
For Democrats, there is even more bad news in these numbers. Forty-one (almost 70 percent) of these 59 "ticket-splitting" districts were won by President Bush and are currently held by Democrats; Kerry won just 18 districts held by a Republican incumbent. Not surprisingly, half (21) of the Bush districts held by Democratic House incumbents are in the South, while a little more than half (10) of the Kerry districts held by Republican House incumbents are located in the Northeast.
The 10 Democrats sitting in the most Republican districts by Bush percentage are....
Chet Edwards, Texas-17, Gene Taylor, Miss.-04, Jim Matheson, Utah-02, Ike Skelton, Mo.-04, Earl Pomeroy, N.D.-01, Bud Cramer, Ala.-05, Stephanie Herseth, S.D.-01, Bart Gordon, Tenn.-06, Rick Boucher, Va.-09, and Dan Boren, Okla.-02.
The 10 Republicans sitting in the most Democratic districts are....
Jim Leach, Iowa-02, Rob Simmons, Conn.-02, Michael Castle, Del.-01, Mark Kirk, Ill.-10, Jim Nussle, Iowa-01, Curt Weldon, Pa.-07, Chris Shays, Conn.-04, Clay Shaw, Fla.-22, Charlie Bass, N.H.-02, and Jim Gerlach, Pa.-06
Only 13 percent of House seat split their tickets, the Democratic Party is in a uphill fight to regain the majority in the House. With a Republican Party over reaching on many issues, swing voters might want to give Democratic Party the majority in 2006.