In a few weeks, the Spring Offensive against Al Qaeda will begin in earnest.
After a few weeks, Bush will announce he is unilaterally invading the Northwest Provinces of Pakistan, to do the job that Musharraf will not do. He will not negotiate or wait for the International Community.
One of two things happens:
A) Musharraf falls immediately. Nuclear war erupts between India and Pakistan when the yahoos get the bombs. Bush and any pro-war senators (and Kerry will be one of them) are made to look like jackasses. Or we all die when the international tripwires overseeing everyone else's missiles are triggered.
B) OBL is captured. Musharraf falls. See above.