Flame me or don't. I'm not a "concern troll" or trying to gratutitously provoke a response. I'm going to vote for Angelides in November. But I was just going over the results of the poll taken by The Courage Campaign that were reported here and at myDD recently in the wake of Busby's election defeat to Bilbray in Southern California and the items that jump out at me follow below.
The basic point: Throughout the country Dems will have success by running on the notion that they'll stand up to George Bush. But Californians in general approve of the job Arnie's done after his humiliation in last year's referendi votes. He's already positioned himself as a guy who'll stand up to Bush (his recent photo op with Blair regarding environmental plans was just another of his well planned photo ops designed to give him plausible deniability vis a vis the neo con agenda.) Plus, Hollywood libs like Spielberg, Katzenberg and Saban have come out in support Arnie in advance of the November election. Ouch?
The Courage Campaign's polling showed:
1) The independent vote in a decidedly Red district (she got 40% of it, Bilbray got 34%) didn't push Busby over the top. I believe the same thing will happen to Angelides. He simply does not have the requisite "presence", nor has he conveyed a "cause" with sufficient passion to sway more independents to his camp.
2) Just 37% of voters in that district feel that California is on the wrong track, though 58% feel that America in general is on the wrong track. Couple this item with...
3) 66% of the district approve of the job Arnold is doing. Only 36% approve of the job Bush is doing.
Of course, CA-50 is not a snapshot of the rest of California by any stretch of the imagination. But a Field Poll, which has an incredibly reliable record, taken July 25 shows the following throughout California:
1) Arnie is preferred by 45% of voters; Angelides by 37%.
2) 85% of Republican voters (not the pols in the legislature!) support Arnie. 63% of Dem voters support Phil (and as noted above, some of the Hollywood crowd have thrown in with Arnie already. So if Early Money Is Like Yeast - EMILY list derivation, Arnie will be quite a puffy pastry of cash come October.)
3) Schwarzenegger has a more ardent following than Phil. Arnie's voters vote FOR Arnie; Phil's voters vote AGAINST Arnie.
4) Arnie has a 49/40 Approve/Disapprove ratio, trending in the positive direction. The only two regions of California where Angelides is preferred to Arnie are LA and SF. In the densely populated Southern California Region, Arnie is preferred 61% to 27% to Phil. Yowser.
5) Amazingly enough, after all Arnie did to gut union benefits and safeties, 41% of union households prefer him while 45% prefer Phil. That's only a 4% difference. That's just mind boggling considering how pro-corporation Arnie is.