I have been putting together a series of profiles of U.S. House of Representatives races to focus on in 2006. We currently hold 202 seats plus one independent who is a DIABN--a Dem in all but name--Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The GOP has 232 seats. Therefore, a net gain of 15 seats gives the Dems control, 218-217 (it won't depend on Sanders because he is running for the Senate and will almost certainly be replaced by a Dem or GOPer). I started the series by profiling 74 seats held by GOPers that because of demographics and/or issues with the incumbents could be vulnerable to takeover. I finished that series with a (mostly) objective ranking of these seats by vulnerability. That analysis (plus links to the individual district profiles) can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/23/173131/345
I then used the same criteria to generate a list of 42 seats which we hold that could be vulnerable to a GOP takeover under the right (or wrong) circumstances. I similarly ranked those seats by vulnerability. That diary can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/26/15543/5440.
I began profiling the 42 races on the "to defend" list last Monday (it's been a busy couple of weeks). That diary is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/30/1684/29053. Since then, Sherrod Brown (OH-13) announced that he's running for the Senate, leaving open his Akron-based seat. That seat falls in the "possibly competitive" category and ranks between #14 and #15 on the list. Remember, most of these races won't ultimately even be competitive. But, to the extent any of our seats are in danger, they are on this list. (Caveat: obviously, not-yet-announced retirements can potentially add vulnerable seats). In these profiles, I will include where the race falls on the ranking and my own forecast of likely competitive, possibly competitive, or unlikely competitive.
My methodology for inclusion and also for determination of district partisan makeup is explained in the previous diaries.
This installment will feature our potentially vulnerable seats in the South excluding Virginia and North Carolina, which were profiled in the previous diary. The seats:
South Carolina 05 (John Spratt) (#25, unlikely to be competitive)
The 5th Congressional District of South Carolina consists of all or part of 14 counties, mostly in the Up Country. It includes fast-growing (up 40% from 1990 to 2004) York County, part of the Charlotte, North Carolina, metro area. Just to the east is Lancaster County, where Del Webb's Sun City Carolina Lakes has plans for 12,000 new homes, more than half the county's total. Further east, the 5th includes Dillon County and Darlington. It also includes lowland tobacco country, including Marlboro and Chesterfield Counties. Politically, this homeland of Andrew Jackson is ancestrally Democratic. But Republicans are now competitive if not dominant here: the tobacco counties are heavily Democratic but York County is trending Republican. George W. Bush won 55% of the districtwide vote in 2000 and 57% in 2004; in 2002 the 5th was carried by Democratic Governor Jim Hodges, who lives in the district, and by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. Overall it is 43.8% Dem. Dem John Spratt has held this seat since 1982--he is poised to be the next House Budget Committee Chair if the Dems retake control. Spratt has a moderate voting record (66 Lib/34 Con). He won last time 63-37 against a token GOPer. He was targeted by the GOP in both 1994 and 1996, escaping with narrow wins both times. Since then, his margins of victory have been increasing. This seat will be tough to hold when Spratt retires, but while he is there to defend it, it would take an exceptionally strong challenge coupled with a strong GOP year to topple him.
Georgia 08 (Jim Marshall) (#3, likely to be competitive)
The 3d Congressional District of Georgia (renumbered the 8th in the 2005 GOP re-remap) includes almost all of Macon and Bibb County and stretches east and west, almost all the way to Fort Stewart near Savannah in the east and almost all the way to Fort Benning near Columbus in the west. More than 70% of whites usually vote Republican; about 90% of blacks usually vote Democratic. So the political leanings of any district in this part of Georgia depend on the racial percentages. The boundaries of the re-remap 3d District were drawn by a Democratic legislature and approved by a Democratic governor; 40% of district residents were black, which makes this a pretty evenly divided district. George W. Bush carried it with a small majority in 2000 and by a more comfortable 55%-44% in 2004. The new 2005 plan strengthens Republican Phil Gingrey in the 11th District and weakens Democrats Marshall and John Barrow of the 12th District. Marshall looks to be in an uphill battle to retain this seat, while Barrow should be ok provided he survives the primary. The significant revision to this district is that it now dips deeper into conservative rural south Georgia. The black polpulation of the district dropped to 33%. Marshall first ran for this seat in 2000 (under lines similar to the 2005 map) and lost to then-incumbent Saxby Chambliss 59-41. In the wake of the Dem remap in 2002, Chambliss chose to challenge then-Sen. Max Cleland and Marshall ran again. He won one of the closest races in the country, 50.5%. In a 2004 rematch, however, Marshall won 63-37. He has compiled a conservative voting record for a Dem (54 Lib/46 Con). In 2006, Marshall is likely to be the most endangered Dem incumbent (despite the fact that he is #3 on this list). He is defending new territory and likely will be doing it against a former GOP Rep. (Mac Collins).
Georgia 12 (John Barrow) (#10, possibly competitive)
The 12th Congressional District of Georgia, newly created by the Democratic redistricting of 2001, combined almost all of Savannah (but only some of its suburbs), four-fifths of Augusta (but not much of its suburbs) and all of Athens into a long slim district that extends some 230 miles. White areas were excluded and black areas included so that the population of the district was 42% black. It was designed to be safely Democratic; it voted for Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. The March 2005 redistricting which moved Rep. John Barrow's Clarke County base (including Athens) into the heavily Republican 10th District. Barrow said that he would run in the new district that included the largest part of his former district, which would place him in the new 12th. This district has an increased black population of 45%. He could face challenges from two former House members. Democrat Denise Majette, who served one term in an Atlanta-area seat before her unsuccessful Senate bid in 2004, raised the possibility of a primary challenge. In the general, the Dem will face Max Burns, who won the 12th in an upset over a scandal-plagued Dem in 2002, only to lose it to Barrow 52-48 in 2004. Burns announced in May 2005 that he would run for the seat, even though it is more Democratic than the district that he represented for two years. The GOP plan is for the moderate white Dem Barrow to lose to a more liberal black Dem in the primary, who would then lose to Burns in the general. Should Barrow survive the primary, he should be in good shape against Burns; if not, this race will be very close.
Florida 02 (Allen Boyd) (#34, unlikely to be competitive)
The 2d Congressional District of Florida is centered on Tallahassee, and extends along the Gulf coast west to Destin and east to the Suwanee River, which empties into the Gulf in the only part of Florida where the beach is still undeveloped. Inland, the 2d runs north to the Alabama and Georgia borders, and far enough east to be within an hour's drive of Jacksonville. Historically, this was Democratic country, Jeffersonian and segregationist. Today, it is still mostly Democratic, though for different reasons: More than one in three Tallahassee area jobs are in city and state government, three times the statewide level. The district, 22% black, includes Gadsden County, the state's only black-majority county. Growth is spreading south into Wakulla County, which grew 91% from 1990 to 2004, more than all but three others in Florida. There is similar growth along the beach areas near Destin which have attracted affluent families to "new urbanist" communities like Seaside and Rosemary Beach. But for all this recent growth, this is the part of Florida with the highest percentage of native Floridians. Overall, the district is 47.5% Dem. The congressman here is veteran blue dog Dem Allen Boyd (54 Lib/46 Con). He was elected in 1996 with 59% and has not been under 60% since. The GOP targeted him in 2004 and he still won going away, 62-38. It would take a perfect storm for the GOP to dislodge Boyd.
Mississippi 02 (Bennie Thompson) (#42, unlikely to be competitive)
The 2d Congressional District of Mississippi includes the entire Delta, indeed the whole Mississippi riverfront from Tunica almost to Natchez. It includes most of heavily black and low-income Jackson and surrounding Hinds County except for the affluent Bellehaven neighborhood. This is Mississippi's one black-majority district, first created as such in 1984. The 2d includes a few counties in the east that are majority-white and vote Republican, but the political tone of the district is set by the black neighborhoods in Jackson and the black counties of the Delta. Overall, the district is 59.8% Dem. The incumbent, Bennie Thompson, won the district in 1993 when Mike Espy left to join the Clinton cabinet. Thompson has a fairly liberal voting record (76 Lib/24 Con). He has had some close races over the years in what should be a safe district, including two strong challenges by black GOPer Clinton LeSueur in 2002 and 2004. LeSueur held Thompson to 56-44 and 59-41. It is unclear whether he's taking a third shot. In any event, it is unlikely that Thompson will be in any sort of danger this time around.
Arkansas 02 (Vic Snyder) (#24, unlikely to be competitive)
The 2d Congressional District of Arkansas includes Little Rock, with its large black and affluent white neighborhoods, and North Little Rock, a kind of industrial suburb across the Arkansas River known informally for years as Dog Town. It also includes surrounding Saline and Faulkner Counties that have grown rapidly as people move farther out on the freeways, and a couple of hill counties. In the 1990s, the Little Rock area was trending Republican, and fast-growing Saline County to the southwest was heavily Republican. In 2004, with turnout up sharply, George W. Bush got 63% of the vote in Saline County and 59% in Faulkner, but John Kerry won 55% in Little Rock's Pulaski County. Overall, the district gave Bush a 51%-48% margin--the same as in the national popular vote. This district is 49.5% Dem. Snyder won an open seat race in this district 52-48 in 1996; he has won 58-42 in every election since (except 2002, when he was unopposed). He has a moderate voting record (66 Lib/34 Con). He should be fairly safe heading into 2006.
Louisiana 03 (Charlie Melancon) (#4, likely to be competitive)
The 3d Congressional District of Louisiana includes about half the Cajun country. It includes most of Louisiana's swamplands, covering Houma, where seven bayous converge; St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes, downriver from New Orleans; St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, St. James and Ascension Parishes on both sides of the Mississippi; roughneck Morgan City; and Iberia Parish. The ancestral language here is French (23% claim French or French Canadian ancestry), mainly Cajun but also Creole; the ancestral religion is Roman Catholic and the ancestral politics Democratic, though very conservative. There has been an influx of Mexicans and other immigrants from Central America, many of whom work on the oil rigs or at the chemical plants. George W. Bush won 52% of the vote here in 2000 and 58% in 2004. Overall, the district is 44.5% Dem. The congressman is Charlie Melancon, a freshman elected in something of an upset in a December 2004 runoff. The seat was held for years by conservative Dem-turned conservative GOPer-turned big Pharma lobbyist W.J. "Billy" Tauzin, Jr. Tauzin stepped down to pursue a lucrative and spiritually rewarding career shilling for Viagra makers in 2004, and his son Billy III ran for the seat. Melancon took 24% in the open general election to Tauzin's 32% and other GOPer Craig Romero's 23%. In the runoff, Melancon eked out a razor-thin 569-vote victory. He will certainly be a top GOP target in 2006. It will be interesting to see what effect the hurricane has on this race (and LA-07 and MS-02 for that matter)
Texas 15 (Ruben Hinojosa) (#27, unlikely to be competitive)
The 15th Congressional District of Texas is one of four districts dividing up the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Some 63% of its residents live just north of the river in Hidalgo and Cameron Counties, in or near the string of towns from McAllen to Harlingen. This is a fast growing area: Hidalgo and Cameron Counties' population rose 60% from 1990 to 2004, from 644,000 to 1,030,000; the local infrastructure has barely kept up. The 15th then stretches north through a narrow corridor of land between Corpus Christi and San Antonio and extends 350 miles to Bastrop County on the outskirts of Austin. In the northern end of the district, much of which is Texas German country, the population drops below 20% Hispanic. These northern counties were added in the 2003 redistricting as a result of the decision by redistricters to add a new Latino district, the 25th, extending from Austin to the border. The changes increased the number of counties in the 15th from 8 to 13 and reduced its Hispanic percentage to 69%. One might expect a district with such a large Hispanic population to be heavily Democratic. But in state contests it has given Democrats only small majorities, and it has given majorities of its votes to George W. Bush, 50% in 2000 and 55% in 2004. Overall, it is 48.5% Dem. Hinojosa has held this district since 1996. His closest race came in 2004, when he won 58-42 against an underfunded GOPer. He is a moderat (63 Lib/37 Con), who is unlikely to be in trouble in 2006.
Texas 17 (Chet Edwards) (#1, likely to be competitive)
The 17th Congressional District of Texas includes all of nine counties and parts of three more but is centered on Waco and two other population centers. To the north is Johnson County, directly south of Fort Worth's Tarrant County, a fast-growing (population rose 36% between 1990 and 2004) part of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Once almost entirely rural, with odd settlements like the Mennonites in Grandview, it is now becoming suburban, or at least exurban. The other population center is Brazos County, whose largest city, College Station, is home to Texas A&M University. Its agricultural and military tradition sets it apart from the University of Texas; it has a more conservative atmosphere and is the site of the George H.W. Bush Presidential Library. The political tradition in central Texas for over a century was Democratic, heavily so. This area voted for Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968, when most of the rural South went for George Wallace and Richard Nixon; it voted Democratic when Texas first elected a Republican governor in 1978 and voted for Democrat Ann Richards, a Waco native, in 1990. But it seems to have followed most of Texas and become Republican. George W. Bush carried the area when running for governor in 1994 and 1998; the district voted 68% for him for president in 2000 and 70% in 2004. This was in effect a new district created by the Republican redistricters in October 2003. Only 7% of its residents lived in the old 17th District, which stretched far to the west; it includes parts of six old districts. The district overall is only 31.8% Dem. The incumbent here was Chet Edwards, a Democrat from Waco, who had proved able to win reelections in the heavily Republican 11th District. But only 35% of the residents of the new 17th District lived in his old district; he lost Fort Hood, and Johnson and Brazos Counties were new territory for him. The redistricters obviously intended to beat Edwards, but at least in 2004 they did not succeed; Edwards survived 51-49. He was the one of only two of the nine Dems targeted for defeat in the remap to survive, and the only one to survive a general election contest rigged against him (Lloyd Doggett survived a primary in a newly heavily Latino Dem district). Outside of those two, Jim Turner retired; Chris Bell and Ciro Rodriguez lost primaries; and Max Sandlin, Nick Lampson, Charlie Stenholm, and Martin Frost all lost in the general. The GOP will be gunning for Edwards--the one that got away--in 2006. It is hard to say which seat is in more peril, this one or Georgia 08.
Texas 27 (Solomon Ortiz) (#38, unlikely to be competitive)
The 27th Congressional District of Texas includes the land from Corpus Christi south to the Rio Grande. Its population is concentrated at the northern and southern ends of the district. In the north Corpus Christi and surrounding Nueces County, with a 56% Hispanic population, is the southernmost natural port on Texas's Gulf Coast. At the southern end is Cameron County, which includes South Padre Island; the population here is 84% Hispanic. The biggest city is Brownsville, on the Lower Rio Grande opposite Matamoros, Mexico, one of the major border crossings in Texas; not far away is the colonia of Cameron Park, where people live in trailers or makeshift structures without water or sewage service, rated by the Census Bureau as one of the poorest places in the nation. NAFTA has lifted the economy in parts of this area, and there has been a boom in commercial construction. The 2003 redistricting produced only small changes in the boundaries: a chunk of Cameron County was placed in the 15th District and territory north of Corpus Christi and west of Kingsville was added. Politically, the 27th District is Democratic, but not so Democratic as one might expect. In 1998 the 27th District gave a majority of its votes for Governor George W. Bush. In the 2000 presidential campaign, Bush just barely lost the district to Al Gore, and in 2004 he carried it with 55% of the vote. This was one of four Democratic-held districts in Texas that Bush won in 2004, three of which have Hispanic majorities. Overall, it is 48.5% Dem. Ortiz won the last two times 64-36 and 62-38. He is a fairly conservative Dem (57 Lib/43 Con) and is unlikely to be defeated.
Texas 28 (Henry Cuellar) (#35, unlikely to be competitive)
The 28th Congressional District of Texas stretches from the southern half of San Antonio to the Mexican border. Some 44% of its people are in Bexar County, anchored by Hispanics on the south side of San Antonio and a smaller number of blacks on the east side. Brooks City Base (slated for closure under the Pentagon's May 2005 recommendations) is here, but the other military installations are located in the neighboring 20th and 21st Districts. The district extends south, through thinly settled ranch and oil well country, to the Rio Grande. The 2003 Republican redistricting plan added Anglo-majority Guadalupe and Wilson Counties and San Marcos in Hays County, all east of San Antonio, adjusted the boundaries in Bexar County, removed five heavily Hispanic counties on the border and just to the north and added half of Laredo's Webb County. Laredo has had a tumultuous politics in recent years. When local businessman Tony Sanchez was the Democratic candidate for governor in 2002, turnout in Webb County surged from 16,000 in 1998 to 39,000 in 2002, and the outpouring of Democratic votes almost enabled an upset of 23d District Republican Henry Bonilla by Cuellar. Republicans were obviously trying to shore Bonilla up by removing half the county (and Cuellar) from his district and putting it in the 28th. This district is still only 50.3% Dem. This district was represented by Dem Ciro Rodriguez until 2004. Cuellar decided to challenge Rodriguez from the right in the primary in the 28th rather than take on Bonilla again in the more GOP 23rd. He won--after recounts and a lengthy court battle--by 58 votes. He prevailed in the general 60-40 over an unknown, underfunded GOPer. He's been basically a DINO in the House. It is unclear whether Rodriguez will stand for a rematch in 2006. It is also unclear whether the GOP can make a credible challenge here, but unlikely.