Richmond, Virginia -- March 15, 2006
Yesterday was a busy and exciting day for for supporters of Jim Webb's candidacy for U.S. Senate. Early in the afternoon Ben Tribbett at Not Larry Sabato began hinting strongly that Webb had secured an important endorsement. Many commenters showed up on NLS to debate who the endorsement would be from, and how important it would be, while we waited to hear the news.
As the sun began to set, Secretary Webb appeared on MSNBC's "Hardball" with Chris Matthews at 5:00 PM EST and this appearance was re-aired at 7:00 PM. In addition to his appearance on "Hardball," Webb made himself available for an hour to answer questions live on DailyKos from 7:00 to 8:00 PM EST. This coincided with my monthly Richmond Democratic Meetup Group meeting. So I found myself talking about Jim Webb while monitoring Jim Webb online and watching a Jim Webb interview out of the corner of my eye. That's what I call a synergistic use of media.
I returned home and was able to turn my computer on at about 8:30 PM. There in my in box was a press release from the Webb campaign: Leslie Byrne was endorsing Jim Webb and joining his campaign as a senior advisor. This was a critical early victory for Jim Webb.
Let me preface the following remarks by saying that, while I am a Webb supporter I am not as yet a part of the Webb campaign. I should also point out that I am not a professional political commentator, nor am I privy to the Miller campaign's strategy. What follows is simply my opinion; more informed than some, less informed than many: it is what it is.
That being said, the thing about Leslie Byrne's endorsement that makes it so important at this particular moment, at least to my thinking, is that she'll upset what I think was Miller's plan to assemble a juggernaut in NoVA that would have started the "inevitability" talk rolling. You see, primary elections can be viewed as a really elaborate version of the game "Chicken," in which participants continually attempt to "psych-out" their opponents, convincing them to drop out of the race. If Miller could have lined up a solid base of support in NoVA, this race might have been over before it really got started. That all changed yesterday.
Miller and his campaign have tried to portray Miller as being left of Webb, claiming Miller was a "real" Democrat. That trial balloon was utterly deflated when Leslie Byrne--a Liberal Democrat with a capital "L"--endorsed Webb. Ms. Byrne's liberal credentials are beyond question and her endorsement confirms that Webb is indeed a "real" Democrat, one who is to the left of Miller in many respects, not least of which is his commitment to social justice.
Byrne's endorsement should make it impossible for Miller to consolidate control in NoVA: there will be no talk of an "inevitable" Miller win at the various St. Patrick's Day events planned for this weekend. Miller and his staff will have to reconsider their plans and pacing, looking farther afield for support in areas that might not be as friendly to Miller.
Byrne's endorsement is also key in the primary election as a whole. As the sometimes controversial, but always shrewd, Ben Tribbett explained to me, among "primary voters" Byrne won from the Potomac river to Harrisonburg going west, from the Potomac River to Fredericksburg going south as well as Roanoke and Virginia Beach cities. Byrne will bring a critical boost to Webb's primary election campaign.
Ben has a graphic illustrating Byrne's statewide influence prepared by Kenton Ngo of "750 Volts" here. Byrne's endorsement has also produced what may be the funniest political cartoon to come out of Virginia this year, produced by "Libertas" at Perseverando.
Ben Tribbett now has the U.S. Senate primary leaning towards Jim Webb, and I agree with that analysis. Miller is no longer the "inevitable" candidate and is going to have to make the case for why he should lead this year's charge against incumbent Republican George F. Allen. I'm not sure that's a case Miller can make.