A recent poll gives Democrats something to celebrate in their only open seat in a swing district.
More below the fold and at The Left Nut.
A January 11-12 Cooper & Secrest (D) poll of 505 likely OH-06 voters:
Party ID
Dem: 50%
GOP: 32%
Rather elect to Congress?
Dem: 52%
GOP: 28%
Rather support a Congress person who...
...would "act as a balance to the Bush Administration's policies that are hurting this area and the country": 57%
...would "support the programs and policies of President Bush": 32%
Bush job approval
Positive: 37%
Negative: 62% (poor: 44%)
Direction of the country
Right direction: 30%
Wrong track: 62%
Bob Taft approval
Positive: 18%
Negative: 80%
OH Governor
Ted Strickland (OH06): 65%
Ken Blackwell: 24%
OH06 race
Charlie Wilson: 42%
Chuck Blasdel: 24%
Undecided: 34%
House Race Hotline (subscription with the
National Journal) pointed out in their headline (Party ID Alone Should Give Wilson a Win, But Will It?) for the OH-06 poll that just the party identification could lock this race up for Wilson. I think there are other factors that help as well. Check out current OH-06 Rep. Strickland's numbers for governor against Blackwell. 65%. If the popular Strickland wins the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, his name on top of the ballot could seal the deal for Wilson, aiding other Ohio Dems in the process. But wait, then there's Wilson polling with an 18-point lead over Blasdel. Yes there are 34% undecided, but with a 50% party ID, 52% wanting to elect a Dem and 57% wanting to elect someone to balance Bush, I'm guessing those undecideds would break pretty hard in Wilson's favor if the election were held today.
(Note: If someone suspects this could be a push poll, as happened with the MN-06 poll I posted a couple days ago, please refer to my second response to that commenter. Replace the name Tinklenberg with Wilson, since they are in similar situations, and ignore the reference to name ID. Please consider this perspective before disregarding my post.)
Check out other news on my favorite House races, including a recent MN-06 poll and an IN-02 poll at The Left Nut.