OK, the evidence in Spain is growing that the recent subway bombings are the work of al Qaeda. The question now becomes, why? And further, what does that portend for our own election in November?
A few scenarios come to mind:
A) AQ was attempting to punish the Popular Party for its joining the fight in Afghanistan; we are more or likely to be attacked
B) AQ was attempting to punish the Popular Party for its joining the fight in Iraq; we are more likely to be attacked, and the GOP's puported link between the Iraq war and the "war on terror" grows stronger . . . re-election odds increase
C) AQ was attempting to influence the Spanish election in favor of the Socialists because they see them as less of a threat; we are less likely to be attacked since the political dynamic here, according to the conventional wisdom, is opposite of Spain's since another attack would increase Bush's odds of winning . . . also, the GOP's implied claim that "a vote for Kerry is a vote for Osama" gains traction . . . re-election odds increase
I could be totally wrong here . . . and there are many more possible scenarios, I'm sure. What do you think?
Cross posted at Pusillanimous Wanker