Winning the House, starting with WA-08
Tue Sep 27, 2005 at 09:22:31 AM PDT
Over a week ago, I attended a fundraiser with our leader in the House, Nancy Pelosi, and she noted to the assembled crowd a couple of facts which are extremely important to how we approach
taking back our government.
The first fact is this: we need only 15 incremental seats to control the House of Representatives.
Those 15 seats change everything about the dynamic of the federal government; they allow us to stop the right-wing machine that's destroying every semblance of effective and fair government in this country.
The second fact is that every list of 15 seats we can take includes Washington's 8th Congressional District (now represented by GOP Rep. Dave Reichert).
Those two facts are of interest very broadly: even if you don't live in Washington's 8th, you can affect the outcome of the race, and it's of critical national importance.
They are, in addition, of particular interest to me, because I am running for that seat and because I have empirical data now that shows that it is possible for me to win it.
Let's start with a little bit about the district, and then talk about why it can be won.
The 8th is a suburban and rural district to the east of Seattle, from the northern suburbs that include part of the Microsoft campus and many of its employees, running south through suburban areas that have been disproportionately hit by Boeing layoffs and rural areas that include Mt. Rainier National Park.
It is the last of Seattle's close-in districts to be sending a Republican to Congress: Seattle's 7th is held by Rep. Jim McDermott (D), the 1st north of Seattle is home to Rep. Jay Inslee (D), and the 9th south of Seattle is home to Rep. Adam Smith (D).
The 8th has never sent a Democrat to Congress - but voted overwhelmingly in 2004 for Sen. Patty Murray (D), sends 50% Democrats to the state legislature, and is a district that was won by both Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.
In 2004, with an open seat (incumbent Jennifer Dunn was retiring), Dave Reichert (R) defeated Dave Ross (D) 51% v. 47%.
Dave Reichert is the former King County sheriff who had both caught the Green River killer and who possessed a reputation for moderation.
Dave Ross is a popular radio talk show host who entered the race quite late.
Across the district Dave Ross did worse than the other Democrats on the ticket: there were so many voters who voted a President: Kerry (D)/Senate: Murray (D)/House: Reichert (R) ticket that convincing only those voters to vote for the Democratic candidate for the 8th is enough to win the seat in 2006.
Because at the end of the day this plays out as a numbers game where they count up the votes to determine the winner (sometimes excruciatingly as we learned in our recent gubernatorial election), let's look at the numbers.
In November 2006, there are likely to be about 440,000 registered voters in the 8th.
Of those, roughly 62% are likely to turn out: that's how many turned out in the last off-year election in which a senate seat was on the ticket, as it will be here with Maria Cantwell's seat.
So we can expect on the order of 273,000 votes to be cast in this race. About 40% of the district is the Repubican base, and about 40% is the Democratic base: that's roughly 109,000 votes on each side.
The remaining 55,000 independent voters determine the outcome of this election. Getting 55% of their vote provides for a comfortable margin of victory: shoot for 30,000.
In 2004, Ross got only 39% of the swing vote in the district; Reichert got 57%. (The Libertarian candidate, Spencer Garrett, got the remaining 9%.)
So what makes me think that I can win that 30,000 of the 55,000 swing voters?
We just did a poll in the district that shows what many of you already know: there is a building backlash against the Republicans.
In the 8th, 69% of likely voters said that they disapproved of the current Republican-controlled Congress.
64% disapproved of the Bush administration. And only 34% would vote to re-elect Reichert. (To give you a sense: a normal number for a first-term incumbent would be in the low fifties.)
Furthermore, while likely voters in the 8th would choose Reichert over a generic Democratic candidate 45% to 21%, when presented with just a little information about me, they choose me at 41% to Reichert's 31%.
My blue collar, military family background, my history of pulling myself up by my bootstraps, my success in working my way through college (working full-time while at Harvard, in addition to maxing out my student loans, in order to have the opportunity to attend) and being a successful executive (at Microsoft, among other tech companies), and my commitment to ensuring that people and families who work hard and play by the rules get a fair chance - those things resonate across the whole district, including the parts that Dave Ross badly lost.
I trigger a politician frame the people of the 8th are already familiar with and overwhelmingly love: the successful mom-in-tennis-shoes, a role created here by Patty Murray.
The combination of the backlash, my fit for the district, and the hard, smart work we're doing to make this an extremely well-run campaign are going to win us this district - one of the fifteen we need to take back the House.
I strongly believe that with hard work, we can take back Washington's 8th Congressional District and unseat Dave Reichert.
I am ready to run a strong campaign to win. I am a candidate who recognizes the incredible work all of you are doing: you're building communities that make our voices stronger.
There are many candidates out there who don't think much of the power of bloggers and the netroots' ability to create change. I am not one of those candidates.
I am excited that so much is being done, both nationally and locally here in Washington State and the Pacific Northwest, to create a more powerful, united community of progressive activists.
We're laying some of the groundwork now for 2006. This is our opportunity to take back our country. I invite you to learn more about my candidacy by visiting my website.
From my website, you can learn more about who I am, opportunities for volunteering if you are interested, and Dave Reichert's record.
By participating here on Daily Kos and elsewhere, you and so many others reflect a deep desire to change this country for the better. I share your sentiment for progressive change and I look forward to helping make it a reality.
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