There aren't a whole lot of surprises here, but I thought I'd give a summary. Here is the
raw data, but it's a huge file. I went through it and did some winnowing. I didn't know how to program the spreadsheet to calculate changes in electoral votes, and I don't know where I can post the spreadsheet so everyone can see it.
If anyone wants me to post it somewhere, tell me where to post it and I'll do so. Bear in mind that I'm not a computer geek so keep your instructions simple! Please!
The Census Bureau projects U.S. population growth of 23% between 2005 and 2030. I divided the states into five categories:
Big Growers (>35% growth)
Growers (28%-35% growth)
No change (18%-28% growth)
Shrinkers (10%-18% growth)
Big Shrinkers (<10% growth)
Obviously the adjectives represent relative positions. A state whose population will grow by 7% is not a "big shrinker," except in relation to the national average and to states that will grow by 30%, 50% and 80%.
Big Growers
Arizona 83%
Florida 64%
Idaho 40%
Nevada 82%
North Carolina 41%
Texas 46%
Utah 44%
Washington 39%
Growers
Alaska 31%
California 29%
Georgia 34%
Oregon 34%
Virginia 30%
No Change
Colorado 25%
Delaware 21%
Maryland 25%
Minnesota 22%
New Hampshire 25%
South Carolina 21%
Tennessee 24%
Shrinkers
Arkansas 17%
Hawaii 15%
Missouri 12%
Montana 12%
New Jersey 12%
New Mexico 10%
Oklahoma 11%
Vermont 13%
Wisconsin 11%
Big Shrinkers
Alabama 8%
Connecticut 5%
D.C. -21%
Illinois 6%
Indiana 9%
Iowa -1%
Kansas 7%
Kentucky 9%
Louisiana 6%*
Maine 7%
Massachusetts 8%
Michigan 5%
Mississippi 6%
Nebraska 4%
New York 1%
North Dakota -5%
Ohio 1%
Pennsylvania 3%
Rhode Island 6%
South Dakota 3%
West Virginia -5%
Wyoming 3%
*Projection made before Katrina
Ten largest states 2000 (millions)
California, 34
Texas, 21
New York, 19
Florida, 16
Pennsylvania, 12
Ohio, 11
Illinois, 12
Michigan, 10
New Jersey, 8
Georgia, 8
Ten largest states 2030
California, 46
Texas, 33
Florida, 29
New York, 19
Illinois, 13
Pennsylvania, 13
North Carolina, 12
Georgia, 12
Ohio, 12
Arizona, 11
In 2000, four of the top-10 states were solid blue (CA, NY, IL, NJ) and four more were battlegrounds (FL, PA, OH, MI). In 2030, using today's political map three of the top-10 states will be blue (CA, NY, IL) and three more are battlegrounds (FL, PA, OH). That's without considering the Republican fraud apparatus, i.e., electronic voting, responsible for stealing FL and OH.
I'd say the Democratic Party has its work cut out. There are two broad directions to go. One is to think the party can win votes by compromising its core values, i.e., personal liberty, economic justice. The other is to defend personal liberty and go on the offensive economically.
To me, it's the economic issues that represent the opportunity. The fastest-growing states are also the ones where wages are low and benefits thin. If the Democratic Party runs away from economic justice, I think it can kiss its ass goodbye forever. Just because someone lives in a Red State doesn't mean they want to work for nothing. It means they've got no choice but to work for nothing.
I did another calculation. In 2005, the population of people 70 and older was 9%. In 2030 it will be 14%. States with more than 11% over 70 in 2000 and more than 18% over 70 in 2030 are what I called "retiree states."
Retiree States 2000
Florida 13%
Pennsylvania 12%
North Dakota 11%
Iowa 11%
West Virginia 11%
Retiree States 2030
Wyoming 20%
New Mexico 20%
Maine 20%
Montana 20%
Florida 19%
North Dakota 19%
West Virginia 18%
Vermont 18%
I thought this was pretty interesting. One thing it shows is that for all the talk about Arizona being a retiree state it's not even near the top. There's one caveat here, though, and that's that population figures include illegal aliens but they can't vote. If that information were more available, I suspect the Arizona would be on the list and maybe prominently so.
That aside, I'd say a couple of things. One is that old folks are notorious for their high voting participation. Social Security and Medicare is THE issue for this group. Yes, the Democrats kept Bush from stealing Social Security and handing it over to the banks. But that's all they did -- the Democrats did NOT extract any political price for Bush's attempted theft.
The Democratic Party's failure to do so -- and its failure to exploit widespread confusion and dissatisfaction among seniors over the horribly complex prescription drug plan -- is political malpractice of the highest order. If the Democratic Party can't do a better job on these issues, then it's time to either get different Democrats or get a new party.