My comment on Rojo's diary
Former Pentagon statistician: 183,000 Iraqi Dead is worthy of a diary on it's own.
I've used this simple technique several times while debating the original Lancet approximation of the 'excess' death in Iraq. It's more illustrative than scientific. Don't worry, it's easy math.
I'm not sure who is more startled by the result, pro-war or anti-war friends, but everyone ends up in agreement that it's doubtful the Lancet study is a wild exaggeration.
continue below the fold for a morbid parlor game.
Assume an average Iraqi town has 1000 people. Then make a rough estimate of how many 'excess' people have died since the invasion in that town (I realize this is a completely imaginary number). Then multiply that number by 25,000 (Iraq pop 25 million).
Play with the numbers and percentages a bit, it really shines a light on our own perceptions, if nothing else.
My first guess was... village of 1000, 5 people in a family makes 200 families, 1 out of 8 families had an 'excessive' death, so 200/8 = 25 out of 1000. 25 x 25,000 = it seems likely I was wrong.
Clearly Bush is blowing smoke. The question for those that are pro-war becomes - does it matter if 200,000 Iraqis have died because of this invasion? How about if it's 400,000?
poll 'answers' - please view after taking the poll
a. 1.2 x 25,000 = 30,000 - Bush's figure
b. 4 x 25,000 = 100,000 - figure associated with Lancet study.
c. 7.32 x 25,000 = 183,000 - Les Roberts new figure
d. 30 x 25,000 = 750,000 - an average guess