Well, here he is - the likely next Prime Minister of Canada, according to the latest
polls
Scary, eh? Well, certainly to read the scenarios being painted by many dKos correspondents writing in anticipation of next Monday's Canadian election, you'd certainly think so. The theme is the same: George Bush's Canadian agent is about to take the reins in Canada and make-over Canada into a northern version of Bushco's United States. To that scenario, I have six short words:
CANADA IS NOT THE UNITED STATES
This should be obvious, but there is a strain of thought that exists among many Americans that "Canada is just like us, only more (or less) [fill in the blank]." Not true. Canada has its own distinct identity, formed by its distinct history, culture, geography, and political system. We have had Conservative governments in the past (most recently, that of
Brian Mulroney from 1984 to 1993. Canada's political
modus operandi is to turn to the Tories when it is perceived that the Liberals have gotten too corrupt, too complacent, and in need of a time on the opposition benches to regroup and relearn humility. Witness the following pattern:
Liberal (1935-1957)
Conservative (1957-1963)
Liberal (1963-1979)
Conservative (1979-1980)
Liberal (1980-1984)
Conservative (1984-1993)
Liberal (1993-present)
I don't want to belabour Canada's distinctiveness, but here is a short primer. Canada began as a union of four British colonies, the largest of which were Upper Canada (now part of Ontario) and Lower Canada (now part of Quebec). It was founded on the notion of two nations - French and English - united as colonies of what was then called British North America. Cultural and linguistic duality was woven into the founding legislation, and has guided the development of the country. It helped inculcate a sense of tolerance for diversity, and a belief in the importance of "group rights" over individual rights.
As Canada grew to include other colonies and former Hudson Bay Company territories, it became the second largest country in the world, with the sparsest population density. This, combined with a largely harsh and formidible frontier helped create support for strong social programmes, many of which - such as universal, single-payer health-care - have their roots in the "co-operative" movement of rural Canada. The inordinate Canadian contributions and losses in WW I (1914-18) and WW II (1939-45) helped create a truly national identity, non-dependent on the Mother Country, and the work of Lester Pearson developed a passionate commitment to use our military primarily for peacekeeping and peace-making. Finally, anxiety about American designs on the country (fed by the attempted American takeover of the British colonies in 1812) and American influence over Canadian culture helped forge a strong sense of distinctiveness and support for Canadian institutions.
WHAT A CONSERVATIVE VICTORY MIGHT MEAN
No, abortion will not return. That debate is closed in Canada, as Harper himself acknowledges. No, capital punishment will not return - that, too, has been decided twice by Parliament - most recently in 1991 - and there is no passion to reopen it. No, gay marriage will not be undone. Even if Harper wins a majority and a free vote repeals the changes to the Marriage Act, the equality provisions of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms have consistently been read to include gays and lesbians, and the courts have signalled that marriage rights will be viewed no differently. No, Canada will not join lockstep with the US on its foreign policy vision. George Bush's popularity in Canada runs less than 20%, and - as I indicated above - Canadians are passionately proud of maintaining an independent foreign policy. For Harper to align himself too closely with Bush would be politically suicidal.
What people should be concerned about is the increasing privatisation of health care, possible reneging on Kyoto commitments, undertakings to undo the aboriginal accord signed in Kelowna last October, and the threat to national unity posed by a probable Tory failure to pick up more than one or two Quebec seats. But more on that will likely follow in other diaries.
THE SKY WILL NOT FALL
There will be wingnuts in the Tory caucus - ones that will be duly marginalised. Is the founder of Focus on the Family Canada running? Yes. Is the current leader of Promise Keppers Canada running? Yes. Is the religious right a player in Canadian public life? Excuse me while I pick myself up off the floor from laughing.
The largest Protestant denomination in the United States is the Southern Baptist Convention. The largest Protestant denomination in Canada is the United Church of Canada (not to be confused with the UCC in the United States), includive and liberal - followed closely by the almost as inclusive and liberal Anglican (i.e. Episcopal) Church.
Bottom line - Canada is reflexively both a small-L and large-L Liberal country. It isn't for nothing that the Liberals are humourously referred to as "The Natural Governing Party." But Canadians are in the mood for punishing them, for a while. The Conservatives, in order to appeal to the sentiments and politics of the vast majority of Canadians are going to have to play Liberal-lite if they form the government, just as they have in every single Conservative administration since 1867.
Be cautious of Stephen Harper, certainly. Be worried about what policies the Conservatives might try to enact, definitely. But portraying Harper as a junior Bush clone is simplistic, and it betrays a weak understanding of the Canadian situation.