Zogby's latest Senate polling is on today's Wall Street Journal news site at www.wsj.com on the top right hand side of the page.
His polling -- and keep in mind he is an admitted liberal and Democrat-cheerleader whose polls often lean more Democrat than actual voting turns out (I say this not because I don't like Zogby but as a warning because his polls are often optimistic to our side) -- has at best a possible pick up of one seat for us in the Senate. [more inside]
My point is NOT to spread bad news. My point is I think all of the nonsense and elation I am reading on my liberal sites is crazy and may cost us the election. I'm afraid everyone is going to think that wins by our side are a forgone conclusion and just stop working.
REMEMBER, in the spring of 2004 Kerry was leading Bush by 12 - 15 points, and we know what the actual results were just months later. The Republicans haven't even yet begun to fight back. Take Pennsylvania for example. If you really think the Reeps and Santorum are just gonna take a loss you are crazy. I don't care what the polls say now, that race will be a squeaker and when it comes down to it I wouldn't be surprised to see that Nazi Santorum pull it out. Especially now with Lynn Swann in the gubernatorial race (notice that he is TIED with Ed Rendell in the polls).
I am also concerned that complacency on our part will result in a lower than necessary turn out on election day. Remember: the Repugs know how to get their vote out!
We are SUPPOSED to pick up seats substantially in the midterm elections of the second term of the other party's presidency. Moderate pick ups would actually be a loss for our side. Right now -- before the Repugs have even begun to fight back -- polls indicate right at ZERO pick ups.
If you want an example of the kind of liberals-just-talking-to-each-other daydreaming I am talking about check out the posts on this site and others like it in the last week or so leading up to election day 2004. Everyone was talking about a Kerry landslide and other such nonsense!
WE HAVE TO FIGHT EVERY DAY RIGHT UP TO ELECTION DAY AS IF WE ARE WAY BEHIND. And let me tell you this: right now we are. Right now a moderate pick up by us would be the best we could hope for.
If we really are the "Reality Based" community then let's act like it.