As I can't do my famous House rundown until all the FEC numbers are out, here is a gubernatorial update.
Let's start with the seats considered relatively strong for the incumbent party:
Arizona - Gov. Janet Napolitano (D)
Connecticut - Gov. Jodi Rell (R)
Georgia - Gov. Sonny Perdue (R)
Hawaii - Gov. Linda Lingle (R)
Idaho - Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) retiring; Rep. Otter should win
Kansas - Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D)
Nebraska - Gov. Dave Heineman (R) (he may lose the primary to Rep. Osborne)
New Hampshire - Gov. John Lynch (D)
New Mexico - Gov. Bill Richardson (D)
Oklahoma - Gov. Brad Henry (D)
Rhode Island - Gov. Don Carcieri (R)
South Carolina - Gov. Mark Sanford (R)
South Dakota - Gov. Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee - Gov. Phil Bredesen (D)
Texas - Gov. Rick Perry (R) (though he'll win with less than 50%)
Vermont - Gov. Jim Douglas (R)
Wyoming - Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D)
That was boring. Now, onto the interesting ones...the possible flips...
Ranked by likelihood of turnover
New York - Gov. George Pataki (R) retiring
New York is square 1 for the Democrats. If State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, the Democratic shoo-in, doesn't win, it will be a very bad election night indeed, as Spitzer has a big lead in every poll. The most likely GOP nominee is former Independent candidate Tom Golisano. But, while Golisano has lots of money, he will still lose to Spitzer.
Massachusetts - Gov. Mitt Romney (R) retiring
Like New York, a very blue state with a moderately unpopular GOP governor retiring. And again, a State Attorney General is the Democratic frontrunner: Tom Reilly in this case. Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey will probably be the Repub, but she stands a very uphill battle against Reilly. Many people point out that Reilly's personality is unexciting, but come on, this is Massachusetts, home of such electric charismas as Michael Dukakis and John Kerry!
California - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)
The last SUSA poll shows Schwarzenegger's approval at 34%, the lowest for any California governor seeking reelection since...since.......well, anyway, Schwarzenegger faces a very tough race from State Treasurer Phil Angelides. Controller Steve Westly is also running, and has an outside chance in the Democratic primary, but Angelides is undoubtedly the frontrunner. With Sen. Feinstein a shoo-in for reelection, California Dems will be focusing big bucks on eliminating the Ahnoldt.
Maryland - Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R)
While Rasmussen shows Ehrlich with a small lead, local pollsters show a convincing lead for Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, the Democratic frontrunner. I expect the GOP to shower Ehrlich (and Steele, the Senate candidate) with $$$, and Ehrlich's approval is decent (which is why I ranked this below California), but it still looks like a good chance for O'Malley.
Arkansas - Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) term-limited
The polls are unanimous in showing State Attorney General Mike Beebe, the likely Democrat, with a narrow lead over former Rep. Asa Hutchinson, the GOP's anointee. Apparently Huckabee's popularity is doing little to help Hutchinson in this conservative, but Democratic state. A last-minute push by Bill Clinton and this could easily go for Beebe.
Ohio - Gov. Bob Taft (R) term-limited
Yet another state with at worst a 50% chance of going Dem. Rep. Ted Strickland is the Democrat, and every poll shows him with a small lead over GOP favorite Secretary of State Ken Blackwell. While Republicans have dominated state politics in Ohio since 1990, Governor Taft is hated, and that can't help Blackwell. Strickland is a strong candidate, and it seems he can deliver this one for the Democrats with just a little luck.
Iowa - Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) retiring
Yes, it took this long to find a vulnerable Democratic seat. This is squarely in the toss-up column, with Rep. Jim Nussle the likely GOP nominee and Secretary of State Chet Culver the likely Dem nominee. Expect it to come down to the wire, but Vilsack will be working hard to ensure he is succeeded by a Democrat. Still a toss-up.
Florida - Gov. Jeb Bush (R) term-limited
The Jeb is finally term-limited, but Florida is again agonizingly close. All polls show it a toss-up between State Attorney General Charlie Crist, the Republican favorite, and Rep. Jim Davis, the Democratic favorite. As always, it will come down to GOTV, but it is worth mentioning that despite years of GOP election-rigging in Florida, Sen. Bill Nelson's huge lead over Katherine Harris can't help Republican turnout.
Pennsylvania - Gov. Ed Rendell (D)
Rendell's approval rating is recovering, and is back into decent territory (high 40's, low 50's). But former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann's recent campaign announcement has given him a minor spike in the polls, causing a lean-Dem race to look tied. I expect things will settle back in, and Rendell will regain the reigns, especially given his famous political skills. But for now, it is a toss-up, and calling it anything else is unfairly optimistic.
Wisconsin - Gov. Jim Doyle (D)
Doyle's approval is lukewarm, but he retains a slight lead over Rep. Mark Green, GOP pretty-boy of the year. Still, this lead is only about 5 points, so watch Wisconsin closely!
Colorado - Gov. Bill Owens (R) term-limited
A swing state trending Democratic, Colorado should be interesting. But Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) maintains a slight advantage over former Denver D.A. Bill Ritter (D).
Nevada - Gov. Kenny Guinn (R) term-limited
Same deal as Colorado. Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) has a slight advantage. But...State Sen. Dina Titus (D) has a chance if turnout in Las Vegas is big enough.
Alabama - Gov. Bob Riley (R)
Riley is one of very few vulnerable Southern Republicans, because not only does he face a tough Democrat in November, Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley, but also a tough primary challenger in wingnut former State Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore. This could be one to watch, seriously.
Finally, there are two kinds of "medium" races:
1. Races with unpopular incumbents but weak opposition
Alaska - Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) is hated, but Alaska is just too red
Illinois - Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) has a decent lead over Judy Baar Topinka
Maine - Gov. John Baldacci (D) has no real opponent
Michigan - Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) has a good lead over Dick DeVos
Oregon - Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) is unpopular, but the GOP field is unimpressive
And finally, there is Minnesota, which could be a sleeper upset, but Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) remains popular.
Thoughts?