UNRECOMMEND THIS PLEASE AND REC UP THE NEW DIARY ON THE ELECTIONS. LET'S KEEP THE GREAT CONVERSATION GOING OVER THERE"
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Without us paying much attention, our neighbors to the North are having another election tonight. Results will actually start trickling out at 7pm Eastern but there seems to be a ban on them being reported until polls cross across the country at 10pm Eastern. Being as I am currently in Canada and unable to afford the $1000 fine for breaking campaign laws I won't be posting results as they come out.
Election Results will available as of 10PM eastern and continuing until all the votes are counted.
You can see the results here
That being said, we should care about the election tonight and I provide an extended analysis below the fold:
If youre at all interested, please recommend this diary so we can have a few good hours of discussion of Canadian politics and the election results.
I wrote an earlier diary about the parties involved which I'm going to excert here. I fixed a factual mistake but some other issues may reflect oversimplification. For example the conservatives are generally "pro-American" but they take a strong line on Canadian sovereignty and are pissed about possible US submarine incursions into Northern waters. That being said, I still think it's fair to say that they are pro-american.
Methods:
Canada has a first past the post voting system like the US. What this means is whoever wins a plurality in a given district (called a riding) wins that seat. It is not a proportional system of representation in Parliament which means that the 6% the Greens get won't land them a single seat since they won't get a plurality in any one location. Furthermore, there are 308 seats in the parliament so 155 would consitute a majority. If no majority is reached you have a minority government let by the party which has the most seats.
The parties:
Conservatives -
Led by Mr. Steven Harper this party is to the right on the canadian spectrum. Essentially, more money to the provinces and less to the federal government. Lower taxes especially for corporations and the wealthy. More law and order - minimum sentencing, trying teens as adults. Generally they are anti gay marriage (which is fully legal in Canada now), some are anti abortion, definetely anti marijuana legalisation. They support a much stronger military. Harper supported the War in Iraq and wanted Ballistic Missile Defense with the US. They are very pro American. However, they are running on a platform which ingores social issues and is actually center or center left. Essentially, they have been campaigning by saying the liberals are corrupt and its time for a change. Then they focus on cutting taxes, increasing money for provinces, and increasing the military. In the last election people feared Harper, now he's putting on a softer face and hiding from being called an American style conservative.
Liberals -
- Currently, led by Mr. Paul Martin, the Liberals have been in power since 1993. They are essentially the center party in Canada. Pro gay marriage insofar as it's already settled law. Pro choice. Split on marijuana legalization. Opposed the war in iraq, opposed ballistic missile defense. The problem is that there are quite a few corruption scandals surrounding them. The biggest revolves around the 1995 referndum when quebec wanted to separate. The party threw around a ton of money to stop this from happening. A lot of it was misused. People are quite pissed about this - especially in Quebec where the Liberals were always the alternative to the Seperatist Bloc Quebecois. The liberals aren't exciting but they've led the country to surpluses, tolerance, and a pretty good spot in the world. Meanwhile, the party sorta rotted on the inside.
New Democratic Party (NDP) -
- Led by Mr. Jack Layton this is a left wing party. Completely opposed to any privatised health care, pro immigration, pro equal marriage, pro marijuana, pro choice. They get a lot of union support. They also support proportional legislation. The reason is that they are often not the winner in any riding. While nationally they may get 18% of the vote (which would be about 50 seats) they ended up with only 18 in the current parliament. If the liberals somehow pull off a minority government they will ally with the NDP. Of interesting note, the NDP is completely not trusted to govern anything. My understanding is that when they ruled Ontario they entirely fucked up the budget. People like them as the party which forces the liberals to move left a bit.
Bloc Quebecois -
Let by Mr. Gilles Duceppe. The bloc only runs candidates in quebec where it's intensely popular. They are a sovereigntist party in a federal election. Basically they want what's best for quebec - ie greater money transferred from the fed gov't. Ridicoulously high support in Quebec from hammering on liberal corruption. Interestingly, if the Conservatives get a minority, they will likely work with the Bloc - obviously unofficially since its a seperatist party.
Greens -
The greens aren't really a factor politically but they seem to siphon votes from NDP or liberal voters. The big example is in British columbia where there is a 3 way race between conservatives, liberals, and the NDP because the Greens have 11% support. If there are close seats, they may throw the election to conservatives.
The final polls have the conservatives up about 10%. They all suggest the results will be something like:
37% CPC - conservatives
27% Liberals
19% NDP
11% Blog Quebecois
5% Green
That being said, these are national polls and don't necessarily affect the first past the post system. "Conventional" wisdom suggests you need about 42% for a a majority government.
Interestingly, one poll last night actualy had the liberals within 1.6% of the conservatives - but it had a small sample size and may be unreliable.
What could happen?
1) Conservative minority gov't
Conservatives win but less than 154 seats. Then they govern on their own but get support on a lot of issues from the Bloc. They can't ally because one is a federalist and one is seperatist but this can go on for a bit. Both support increasing money to the provinces and can find commont gound.
2) Majority conservative gov't
Conservatives get 154 seats plus and can rule on their own. This could last 4 years or so until the next election. They'd hold a free vote on gay marriage - but this isn't really relevant since the courts made it mandatory. Would likely make Canada look quite a bit different and would grow very close to the US.
3) Minority Liberal Gov't
This isn't -impossible- but unlikely. (I think it may actully happen personally). The Liberals just launched a bunch of attacks on Harper for being pro-american, militant, and a fan of the Republican party. Of course these may backfire on him but who knows. This is what we have today and is basically a coalition (officially or not) of the NDP and liberals. This is actually best for progressive voters because the NDP keeps the liberals honest.
My prediction:
As an optimist, I think the liberals will pull out a minority government by 1 or 2 seats. People here just don't like the conservatives and their support is too soft to be reliable. Even in quebec they don't seem organized enough to have high turnout. Of course, I may have to eat my words in a few hours.
Results:
While I don't condone such actions, it seems that a few sites will be flouting the campaign laws. You can find them here beginning at 7 pm EST.
*Update: C-SPAN 2 will have Canadian TV coverage at 8:30 CT. *