With the confirmation on Alito, I think the court concensus on
Roe has altered. As such, I suspect
Roe won't survive the Bush/Cheney Presidency. We should start preparing for the worst.
It had been 5-4 before the death of Rehnquist and retirement of O'Connor. It should therefore be 5-4 against at this point. (I know Ginsburg, Souter, Breyer and I think Kennedy are pro-Roe, and Scalia, Roberts, Thomas, and Alito are against. I am not sure where Stevens is.
I doubt it will go back to the states, I'm fairly sure this very conservative court will declare abortion 'murder' (but not miscarriages, which will be an 'act of God'). By defining any human intervention to stop an existing pregnancy as murder, it will be outlawed
everywhere, with nothing the states can do about it. RU-486 and Morning - After pills will also be illegal. Its the worst case scenario. This is the anti-abortion crowd's ultimate goal. As Soon as this decision gets handed down, 32 states will outlaw abortions by the next day, with laws on the books to activate it if Roe is ever struck down.
The question is, what happens after that? That's the direction we have to look in. So, when this happens (and I expect a ruling like this in 2007) What do we do? Certainly the American public will be propagandized into indifference. But it won't last. Not with the return of back-alley abortions and coathangers.
Remember what happened with Dred Scott -- the South won it's ultimate legal victory: travelling to a 'Free' state couldn't negate slave ownership. In 1854, Dred Scott destroyed the Whig party, because the Whigs couldn't decide if they were pro- or anti- slavery. I suspect a similar disintegration will happen to the Democrats under these circumstances: They certainly tried hard NOT to be identified as a pro-choice party, and they weren't anti-choice either, so they have to be classified as neutral.
With Dred Scott and the Kansas-Nebraska Act, 1854 galvanized a new political party into existance. I don't know if that will happen with this event. I'd like to think most american women under 30 will be upset, but most people, male or female, will think it won't concern them ... until they get pregnant and don't want to be.
The question is: If this happens (And I suspect some restruction of Roe at the very least): What do we, as Pro-choice people, do about it?
I'm open to your suggestions, because I really don't know. It could spark a backlash, or it may just pass quietly into the night.
Even if Stephens and Kennedy keep the balance 5-4, we need to start thinking the unthinkable.