With the FEC finally (slowly) updating campaign fifnace reports, I will be doing a House update shortly. In the meantime, I thought I'd put together a polling round-up of Senate races. At this point, it's mainly Rasmussen doing the polling, for what that's worth.
I have always viewed taking control of the Senate in 2006 as much more of a longshot than the House after the 2004 debacle. The math is simply very difficult. Nonetheless, a sweep of the nine races currently "in play" will yield a one-seat majority. Specifically, we need to knock off five incumbent GOPers (Chafee, Santorum, DeWine, Talent, and Burns), win the three close open seat races (Minnesota, Maryland, and Tennessee), and newly appointed Sen. Menendez must win in New Jersey. One loss requires an upset win over a sixth GOPSenator--Jon Kyl of Arizona. How I got to that conclusion is below the flip. Those familiar with the field can skip to the next section.
This year's Senate cycle contains 18 Dem seats (including one Independent who caucuses with the Dems) and 15 GOP seats up for election. Thus, the GOP has a guaranteed 40-27 edge pending the results of the elections. Of the 18 Democrats up (see qualifier above), three are not seeking re-election (Dayton-MN, Jeffords-VT, and Sarbanes-MD) and another is a newly appointed Senator running for the first time (Menendez-NJ). Of the 15 GOPers up, only one is not running for re-election (Frist-TN).
Early on in the cycle, it looked as if as many as 19 seats could be in play, 10 from the Dem side and 9 from the GOP: there was never a real possibility of serious interparty challenges to Dems Kennedy (MA), Lieberman (CT), Clinton (NY), Carper (DE), Kohl (WI), Bingaman (NM), Feinstein (CA), or Akaka (HI). Nor was there a real possibility of serious challenges to GOPers Snowe (ME), Lott (MS), Hutchison (TX), Lugar (IN), Thomas (WY), or Hatch (UT). Sure, there was a possibility for awhile that Lott would retire, but he isn't going to. There was some early noise about a Lugar-Tim Roemer race getting close, but it wouldn't have and it won't happen anyway. Finally, the primary challenge to Lieberman may change the calculus in Connecticut, but only if the GOP gets a viable candidate. Ditto for Rep. Ed Case's recently announced primary challenge to Daniel Akaka in Hawaii. Therefore, as a practical matter, the GOP has a lock on 46 seats. The Dems have a lock on 35.
Then, candidate recruitment woes whittled the "potential in play" list further. North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven (R) passed on a challenge to Sen. Kent Conrad (D). West Virginia Rep. Shelley Capito (R) won't challenge Sen. Robert Byrd (D). Those decisions should make those veteran Dems safe bets for reelection. On the GOP side, the Dems continue to flounder in finding an opponent for Sen. George Allen (VA). Unless something big changes, those three seats are off the table. It should be noted, however, that some analysts (National Journal's Chuck Todd, for example) still view the West Virginia race as in play--albeit only if Byrd has a "senior moment" during the campaign. Thus, GOP 47/Dem 37, with 16 races seriously contested--8 from each party.
The 16 can be divided into three categories:
A. 4 elected freshman Dem incumbents (Cantwell (WA), Nelson (FL), Nelson (NE), and Stabenow (MI));
B. 5 open seats or appointed incumbents (MN, MD, TN, VT, and Menendez (NJ)); and
C. 7 elected GOP incumbents (Burns (MT), Chafee (RI), DeWine (OH), Ensign (NV), Kyl (AZ), Santorum (PA), and Talent (MO))
How things stand
I. No elected Democratic incumbent looks to be in serious trouble
Each of the four incumbents in Category A is facing a second-tier and/or damaged opponent. The GOP's best shot among them is the Cantwell-McGavick race in Washington, but the colorless rich guy approach has not worked for the GOP in recent years (See Coors, Pete). The races:
Florida (Rasmussen 1/3)
Bill Nelson (D) 54 ($8.015 Million on hand/$7.513 M raised in '05)
Katherine Harris (R) 31 ($470K/$1.317M)
Harris is the gift that keeps on giving--to us.
Michigan (Rasmussen 1/15)
Debbie Stabenow (D) 54 ($4.702M/$3.702M)
Keith Butler (R) 34 ($765K/$1.440M)
Stabenow 58
Jerry Zandstra (R) 30 ($49K/$165K)
Stabenow 56
Michael Bouchard (R) 31 (no report)
None of these GOPers is well known. Bouchard is the Oakland Co. sheriff. Butler is a black minister and former Detroit councilman. Zandstra is also a minister. Stabenow should win comfortably, with around 56-57%.
Nebraska (Rasmussen 11/16/05 (nothing more recent))
Ben Nelson (D) 52 (through 9/30)($2.664M/$1.894M)
Pete Ricketts (R) 29 ($211K/$1.420M) (self-funder)
Nelson 57
David Kramer (R) 25 (9/30: $89K/$172K)
Nelson/Don Stenberg (9/30: $17K/$134K) no data.
This crop of GOPers is slightly better than those in Michigan, but not by a whole lot. Stenberg is the former state Atty Gen. and Nelson's opponent in 2000, when he took 49% to Nelson's 51%. He has been nearly invisible this time, though, and is not the favorite of the state and national GOP. Ricketts is a self-funding millionaire businessman. Kramer is a former state GOP party chair. I expect this race to tighten, but I doubt this race will ever crack the top tier--especially this year. Look for the GOP to go all-out against Nelson in the election year of 2012.
Washington (Rasmussen 1/2)
Maria Cantwell (D) 51 (9/30: $3.873M/$5.117M)
Mike McGavick (R) 35 (9/30: $660K/$720K)
McGavick is a wealthy businessman (head of SafeCo) who is expected to self-fund. He has not as of yet. Ultimately, this could get somewhat close, but expect Cantwell to prevail.
II. Three open seats (plus the Menendez race) are close; Vermont is not
As noted above, most of the open seats are being vacated by Dems in Dem states. That said, Minnesota, Maryland, and New Jersey will be hard-fought and probably close down to the wire. Vermont looks like a cakewalk for Rep. Bernie Sanders. As for Tennessee, Harold Ford is hanging in there, which is a good thing since he's most likely Senator 51.
Maryland (Rasmussen 1/10)
Michael Steele (R) 45 (9/30: $350K/$418K)
Ben Cardin (D) 40 (9/30: $1.513M/$1.885M)
Steele 45
Kweisi Mfume (D) 38 (9/30: $97K/$313K)
Cardin is the likely Dem nominee. He's a 20-year Congressman from the Baltimore suburbs. He should be the favorite ultimately, especially given the tilt of the state. Steele is the Lieutenant Gov., and the GOP's most prized recruit. This race looks to me like the reverse South Carolina 2004, which is good for us.
Minnesota (Rasmussen 1/16)
Amy Klobuchar (D) 43 (9/30: $1.363M/$1.755M)
Mark Kennedy (R) 42 (9/30: $1.510M/$2.122M)
Kennedy 41
Ford Bell (D) 36 (9/30: $125K/$234K)
Klobuchar is the front-runner for the Dem nod now that Patty Wetterling dropped out. She is the DA for Hennepin County (which contains Minneapolis). Kennedy is the other prized GOP recruit. He is a GOP Congressman from the twin cities suburbs and exurbs. This will be one of the country's closest races and the kind of race that will likely go to the party with the momentum heading into the election.
New Jersey (Rasmussen 1/18)
Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 42 (9/30: $768K/$821K)
Bob Menendez (D) 36 (9/30: $4.163M/$3.396M)
Menendez is the powerful North Jersey Congressman appointed to replace Gov. Jon Corzine in the Senate. Kean is a state Senator and the son and namesake of a popular former governor from the '80s. I'd ultimately give an edge to Menendez--especially with his cash--but it will be close like every New Jersey Senate race.
Tennessee (Rasmussen 1/17)
Van Hilleary (R) 43 ($1.013M/$1.410M)
Harold Ford (D) 37 (9/30: $1.747M/$1.998M)
Bob Corker (R) 42 (9/30: $3.175M/$1.851M)
Ford 40
Ed Bryant (R) 42 (9/30: $714K/$1.027M)
Ford 40
Hilleary is a former Congressman and the GOP Nominee for Gov in 2002. Bryant is another former Congressman who lost to now-Sen. Lamar Alexander in the 2002 Senate primary. Corker is the mayor of Chattanooga. Ford is a Congressman from Memphis. This race tilts to the GOP, due to a number of factors, but Ford should give a good race. There is a second Dem in the race: state Sen. Rosalind Kurita, who has raised $501K and has $251K on hand at year end. Ford is the strong favorite in the primary.
Vermont (Rasmussen 1/5)
Bernie Sanders (I) 70 ($1.616M/$2.429M)
Richard Tarrant (R) 25 (9/30: $404K/$575K)
Sanders 70
Greg Parke (R) 24 ($26K/$608K)
This one will likely join the safe lists in short order. Welcome to the upper house, Rep. Sanders.
III. Dems have a strong shot at unseating five incumbent GOPers, lag far behind two others considered potential targets
Each of Sens. Chafee, Burns, Santorum, DeWine, and Talent is in big trouble. The Dems have a fairly good chance of defeating all five, repeating an impressive feat accomplished in 2000 (Roth, Ashcroft, Abraham, Grams, and Gorton). A party has defeated five or more incumbents from the other party only three times since 1980: 1980 (GOP), 1986 (Dems), and 2000 (Dems). On the other hand, somewhat touted challengers to Sens. Kyl and Ensign are polling anemically. Those seats may well slide into the safe category, giving the GOP a solid 49.
Arizona (Rocky Mountain Poll 1/5-13/Rasmussen 12/15)
Jon Kyl (R) 55/50 ($6.287M/$5.839M)
Jim Pederson (D) 26/30 (9/30: $673K/$732K)
Pederson is a rich guy self-funder that the party committees love because the committees don't have to spend their money, but who rarely actually wins. Jon Corzine is really the only one to be successful in recent years. Even Brian Schweitzer lost to Conrad Burns when he ran as a "wealthy rancher outsider." Unlike other business guys, however, Pederson is the state Dem party chair, so he has political contacts and IOUs. Will it be enough? These numbers don't give much cause for celebration. Still, Todd notes that Kyl has been aggressively out fundraising and engaging Pederson early which means Kyl could be nervous.
Missouri (Research 2000 1/16-18)
Claire McCaskill (D) 47 (9/30: $645K/$681K)
Jim Talent (R) 44 (9/30: $4.030M/$5.000M)
McCaskill is one of our top recruits. She is the State Auditor and narrowly lost the 2004 Governor race to Matt Blunt (R). With the Bush and Blunt names at their most unpopular, McCaskill gets a boost and Talent is weighed down. I am assuming McCaskill's fundraising has picked up and it will be reflected in the year-end report.
Montana (Rasmussen 1/9/Mason-Dixon 12/13-15)
Conrad Burns (R) 46/46 (9/30: $3.005M/$2.881M)
John Morrison (D) 43/40 (9/30: $527K/$646K)
Burns 45/49
Jon Tester (D) 45/34 (9/30: $142K/$382K)
As Todd noted, "Safe incumbents don't use their very first TV ad of the election cycle to deny wrong-doing. And that's exactly what Burns did....It may not matter who the Democrats nominate as long as Burns stays on the ballot." On the Dem side, we have two strong candidates: Morrison is the state Auditor; Tester is the state Senate President (and Markos' best buddy). Either would give Burns a nailbiter race even without the Abramoff scandal. With it, it's hard to see how Burns survives.
Nevada (Mason-Dixon 10/21-24/05)
John Ensign (R) 59 (9/30: $2.123M/$2.144M)
Jack Carter (D) 25 (no report)
Carter is a businessman and son of Jimmy. There are still rumors that Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman (D) may enter the race. Even so, there isn't much of a track record of incumbents who hit 59% in any matchup losing.
Ohio (Rasmussen 1/3)
Mike DeWine (R) 45 (9/30: $3.694M/$2.255M)
Sherrod Brown (D) 40 (9/30: $2.050M/$300K)
DeWine 43
Paul Hackett (D) 39 (no report)
DeWine is in the level of danger he is in for two reasons: the GOP scandals in Ohio and the strength of the Dems. Either will give him a super-competitive race. I'll weigh in on the most debated primary around here. I think Hackett is the stronger candidate on paper, but he is also the more risky.
Pennsylvania (Rasmussen 1/15)
Bob Casey, Jr. (D) 53 (9/30: $3.000M/$4.219M)
Rick Santorum (R) 38 (9/30: $6.592M/$7.615M)
Even Strategic Vision has Casey by 10. Santorum is toast, although I'd bet the final margin is only 4-5 points.
Rhode Island (Brown Univ. 9/10-11/05)
Lincoln Chafee (R) 38 (9/30: $1.275M/$861K)
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 25 (9/30: $1.400M/$1.746M)
Chafee 41
Matt Brown (D) 18 (9/30: $597K/$1.211M)
Whitehouse 35
Stephen Laffey (R) 25 ($831K/$1.055M)
Brown 30
Laffey 26
Primaries:
Chafee 44
Laffey 24
Whitehouse 32
Brown 16
This is a confusing race, and a fairly useless poll. It's four months old, but I can't find anything else. Further, how the hell can there be 40% undecided in every race? The bottom line is that Chafee is attempting to walk a tightrope which is likely impossible. Laffey is the mayor of Cranston and he is running to Chafee's right. Whitehouse is the former Atty Gen. and Brown is the Secretary of State. A Laffey primary win should mean a Dem victory in November. Even if Chafee survives, he will have to run to the right in the primary and then face an electorate to whom his party label is a deal-breaker in the fall.