This year, because of two structural components of the election calender, North Carolina will have an election unlike any it has held in twelve years. The first change is the natural cycle of elections when the state has no high profile state-wide office on the ballot (i. e., no gubernatorial or US Senate races). The second difference is that North Carolina will actually have its primary in May.
The combination of these two issues offers Democrats a huge opportunity , particularly in NC-08.
The last time NC had an election without either a gubernatorial or US Senate race at the top of the ticket was 1994. That year saw the lowest turnout in North Carolina history with Democrats losing 4 of the 8 Congressional seats they held and control of the state house for the first time since Reconstruction. The result was not caused by a surge of Republican voters. Republican turnout was stable. However, Independent voters, who made up only 11% of the registration, were angry at the party in power, the Democrats. And, most significantly, Democractic turnout was half what it had been in 1990, 1992 or 1996.
In 2006, the situation is reversed. Republicans have no pressing issues or high profile campaigns to drive them to the polls. The independents who used to be reliable Republican voters are now the true swing voters, more self-interested than ideological. The "throw the bums out" mentality is again directed toward the party in power--this time the Republicans.
In NC-08, the mood is particularly ripe for change. The district will have no competitive legislative and few competitive local races to drive turnout. Democrats out number Republicans 52% to 30% with the rest Independent. The district is made up of 10 predominantly rural counties that have lost more textile jobs than any district in country. Republican incumbent Robin Hayes has repeatly broken promises to oppose free trade agreements and, in 2005, cast the deciding vote for CAFTA after saying he was "flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed to CAFTA."
In addition, NC will hold its primary in May this year for the first time since 2000. In recent years, and throughout the 1990s, primaries have been held in Sept. or July because of redistricting court cases. The advantage for Dems is huge. It gives the winner of the primary 6 months to replenish campaign cash and to build a unified camapiagn.
The Democratic primary will be between Larry Kissell and Tim Dunn. While either candidate could have a shot at thie seat this year, Kissell makes the better choice. He's the perfect foil for Hayes. He's a former textile worker who had to leave his profession because the jobs were going overseas. He retrained as high school social studies teacher and has stayed in the area. Kissell has put together a solid grassroots campaign that starting to take root, particularly in the rural areas. He's a great contrast to the Congressman who inherited millions from a textile empire and then helped outsource the jobs.
Regardless, this is a district we can't ignore. Hayes is a multimillionaire and we will never outspend him. However, in this district we can out organize him. The numbers and the issues favor a Democrat. In 2006, we don't need the most money. We just need enough money.