This fall, the Democratic Party will be steamrolled into defeat. The Republicans, whose sole remaining positive poll numbers regard their conduct of the so-called "War on Terrorism," will, once again, leverage that into victory. And they will do that by a cynical, destructive, yet absolutely brilliant act of political ju-jitsu: they will declare victory in Iraq.
Those of us who know anything know that victory cannot be achieved in Iraq in any foreseeable future, that the current policies and past actions of the United States will guarantee defeat. That is not what is at issue here: this is a question of appearance, rather than reality. Remember that this, above all, is what this administration is good at.
Here's how it will work:
By August, a steady drumbeat of positive stories will be seen in the press. These stories will argue that Iraqi police and security forces have taken over significant parts of the country, and that as a result U.S. troops are increasingly unnecessary. This will partly be true: over that last year, the U.S. through its puppet government have been converting the various militia and other non-governmental groups in Iraq into elements of the regular security apparatus. U.S. troops are right now being pulled back, out of the line of fire and into increasingly isolated, but secure, bases. Note that the Bush Administration has not asked for any more money for reconstruction. This is deliberate: they do not intend to invest any more U.S. money in anything other than the self-protection of U.S. troops.
In September and early October, a series of highly publicized troop pullouts will begin sending large numbers of troops home. In highly orchestrated events across the country, particularly in the few swing districts and in those states where contested Senate races are possible, the troops will be given loud and splashy "victory" parades. These will be staggered for weeks, filling the news and giving the impression of a complete withdrawal. In fact, they will withdraw only some 50% to 75% of the troops; they'll leave as many as they can to hold the permanent bases and the "Green Zone" in Baghdad.
As these "victory celebrations" are held, administration spokesmen will steadily press the line that it was only Republican policies that allowed this to happen; that Democrats, weak, vacillating, even traitorous, had attempted to block this victory from happening.
By early November, a complete victory will be declared. A few news stories will attempt to reveal the truth - that Iraq is falling ever further into civil war, that the security situation there for the remaining troops is increasingly perilous. However, it will not matter. With American casualties dropped to nearly zero, with the major news services nearly entirely withdrawn - as happened in Afghanistan - the distance between perception and reality will widen ever farther.
Think this can't happen? Recall how Nixon won in 1972. Throughout 1970, Nixon was hammered with the fact that the War in Vietnam had now become his war, that his promises to withdraw had not come to pass. Through the summer of 1970, the Nixon Administration began to quietly pull troops back to heavily fortified fire bases. Although civilian casualties rose due to nearly indiscriminate shelling of the countryside, U.S. casualties dropped as the Army ended its "search and destroy" strategy of direct contact with the North Vietnamese and what few Viet Cong were left. By 1971, that process was nearly complete and troop withdrawals had begun. In increasingly desperate negotiations with the North through 1971 and 1972, the administration began moving toward nearly all the conditions the North had demanded in 1968. In October, 1972, just weeks before the presidential election, a "peace" was announced with great fanfare, a peace that was triumphantly signed in January, 1973. The reality was that four more years of war had won the U.S. nothing; the image was that the North had, at long last, been "forced" to negotiate a surrender. And who was in the administration then? Oh, come on, you know... Mr. R. and Mr. C.