HOW THE REALITY-BASED COMMUNITY, DEMOCRATS AND MODERATE REPUBLICANS SEE A WAR WITH IRAN:
Reality-Based Community Fantasy Analysis: The US and UK cannot invade and hold Iran, it would take 600,000 troops to control such a large area containing 80 million people.
This is why an Iranian Invasion will never happen. And Bush can't start a draft even to raise the 600,000 needed troops, that would be too unpopular politically.
Besides, our troops in Iraq are stretched thin. After all there are 140,000 troops there and our active dury roster is only 500,000. That leaves only 360,000 troops to invade Iran. Where will the other 240,000 troops come from, HMMMM?
Reality-Based Prediction: Bush and Cheney and Rumsfeld are seeing the same reality we are, and remembering Vietnam and the unpopularity of the Iraq War would NEVER actually invade Iran. It's just too damn big, doncha know? They wouldn't just start a war to grab oil, anyhow. That would be downright evil and they are upstanding Americans like the rest of us, always obeying International Law. If they did invade Iran, why the Media would see it as an Oil War this time and besides, large Muslim crowds around the world would riot and burn Bush in effigy. Surely, even a neo-con would not invade because of those riots.
HOW THE NEO-CONS SEE A WAR WITH IRAN:
The Neo-Con Analysis (the New Reality): Forget the Oil Bourse, whatever, WE'RE TALKING 100 BILLION BARRELS OF BLACK GOLD, TEXAS TEA, SITTING RIGHT NEXT TO US IN TINY LITTLE KHUZESTAN!! WE TAKE KHUZESTAN WITH SPECIAL FORCES AND 15,000 MARINES AND SOME HEAVY ARMOR FROM AN INFANTRY DIVISION. Doesn't matter if the first few years, sabotage prevents any oil from moving--THE US AND UK ARE NOW SITTING ON ENOUGH OIL TO KEEP OUR ECONOMIES GOING LATER ON WHEN PEAK OIL HITS!!!
Just need 2 carrier groups in theater to protect the Gulf and Straits of Hormuz and blow up anything bigger than a rowboat. Plus 3,000 to 4,000 Special Forces, half our Marines and some Arab rebels for show. And of course all the B-52s and sorties the US and UK might need. We would also need 20,000 mercenaries for Death Squads and Security.
Neo-Con Prediction: Oil at $100 to $120 barrel thanks to new reality of State of War with Iran and worries over attacks on oil tankers (hopefully at least one will be hit and sink). The Iranian Army, what's left of them, will be scattered to the winds by the new Air-Land-Sea War battle operations, which completely obliterates any large Third World force that appears on our satellites and AWACS radar screens. The invention of Air-Land-Sea plus Special Forces and our currently under-utilized and fresh US and UK Navies makes it a snap to take and hold the 100 Billion Barrels underneath Khuzestan.
We also take the Coast cities of Bushehr and Bandar e-Abbas with Navy Seals, some Marines and Special Forces in the impassable Zagros Mountains to protect them from terrorists from the North.
If any large force threatens a Counter-Attack we just drop a few A-Bomb-like DAISY CUTTERS on them and Goom-Bye!
The rest of Iran starves and has no oil or gas! Meanwhile the Nutjob we got elected by having moderates boycott the Iranian elections allows Wolf Blitzer and US media to once again avoid any use of the word "oil" in conjunction with "invasion" or "spreading democracy and freedom" SO THE STUPID SHEEPLE AND REALITY ADDICTS WILL THINK WE'RE AFTER THE WMD AGAIN!
Brilliant Plan by Rumsfeld! When do we start??
Side-note to Karl Rove: Great Political Strategy too! Those al-Queda Democrats will have to vote against a "War to Stop Iran from getting the BOMB" in October, just like 2002!! We keep the House and Senate by comparing the Democratic Party to videotapes from al-Queda!!